Saturday, March 10, 2007

D-1 BP65

This will mostly just be a reaction to the games over the last day or two. I'll do a more in-depth study of the bubble teams Saturday afternoon, and we can take a look at how the bubble has shifted. For now:

1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. FLORIDA (SEC)
2. Wisconsin
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas A&M

3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Pittsburgh
3. Texas
3. Southern Illinois

4. Virginia Tech
4. Oregon
4. Washington State
4. Maryland

5. Marquette
5. Nevada
5. BYU (MWC)
5. Tennessee

6. CREIGHTON (MVC)
6. UNLV
6. Virginia
6. Boston College

7. USC
7. Louisville
7. Duke
7. Notre Dame

8. Kentucky
8. Butler
8. Michigan State
8. Arizona

9. Villanova
9. VCU (COLONIAL)
9. Illinois
9. Indiana

10. Air Force
10. Syracuse
10. Xavier
10. Vanderbilt

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Old Dominion
11. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
11. UTAH STATE (WAC)

12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. GEORGE WASHINGTON (ATLANTIC 10)
12. Texas Tech
12. Arkansas

13. Florida State
13. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
13. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)

14. AKRON (MAC)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
14. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)


15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. NORTH TEXAS (SUN BELT)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Georgia Tech
Kansas State
Drexel
Missouri State
Stanford

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
West Virginia
Purdue
Oklahoma State
Bradley
Mississippi
Mississippi State

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Alabama
Georgia

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Massachusetts
Michigan

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry, but after yesterday's games, anyone who doesn't have Purdue at least in their first 5 out cannot have be serious on their predictions. Do you have a grudge against them or something?

Jeff said...

Why, because they beat Iowa? A lot of teams on the wrong side of the bubble had wins yesterday, and Iowa isn't as impressive as the others. Kansas State, Oklahoma State, the Mississippi Schools - all had better wins. Compare Purdue to Oklahoma State:

Purdue's 9-7 conference record looks a lot better than Oklahoma's 6-10, but you have to remember the unbalanced schedules. Purdue only had to play Wisconsin once, and avoided having to play Illinois and Michigan State on the road. If they had to play those two on the road instead of at home they probably lose both and go 7-9 instead of 9-7.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State had to play Texas, Texas Tech and Texas A&M twice, and Kansas on the road. That's about as brutal as it can get.


Looking at the overall resumes, they have pretty identical RPIs and Strength of Schedules, but Oklahoma State has the superior performances against top teams (including that win over Pitt early on). They definitely have a much better out-of-conference performance. And they've spent their conference Tourney crushing Nebraska and beating Texas A&M - much more impressive than beating a bad Iowa team.



Now, if Purdue beats Ohio State today, they're getting in for sure. If they get creamed they're probably on the outside. If they have a close loss then it's anyone's guess.

Anonymous said...

Florida St IN and Georgia Tech OUT??????
No way, man!

DMoore said...

OK, I can see both points about Purdue. They are a very viable candidate, but a large number of schools will be disappointed today after Nevada and Xavier moved the goalposts on everyone. I do think they are in the just miss the cut list, but I wouldn't list them over Georgia Tech or Drexel at this point. I would put them in over Kansas State, though.

I assume the Arkansas pick for the brackets assumes they will beat Mississippi State today. I don't think they're quite in yet, but I would expect that victory to put them over the hump.

On the other hand, I think the shrinking bubble kills Florida State. I can't see putting them in over Georgia Tech, even with the first round results.

Georgia Tech's Top 50 wins (8-7)
UNC, Memphis, Duke, Boston College, Purdue, Florida St (twice), Clemson
FSU's Top 50 wins (5-9)
Florida, Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Clemson

When I add in that Georgia Tech beat FSU twice, and went 8-8 in the conference vs. 7-9, I've gotta go with Georgia Tech. I realize Tech has Road Issues, but three of the wins above are road or neutral.

Jeff said...

I think the Georgia Tech/FSU debate is too focused on the fact that Tech swept their season series. We see all the time that one team sweeps another and gets denied for the Tournament (just look at George Mason and Hofstra last year).

When you look at the rest of the resume, Florida State is simply the better all-around team. They have a statistically-significant better RPI, and have shown that they don't lose to bad teams. They have zero losses to teams with RPIs worse than 54.

FSU has beaten good teams on the road (Duke, Clemson) and has an overall 4-8 road, 6-9 road/neutral record. Not great, but not horrible. Georgia Tech has shown an incredible inability to beat anybody away from home. In fact, their only true road win was a squeaker over FSU. An overall 1-8 road record is atrocious. They remind me of Oklahoma State a lot in that regard. Seeing as how you don't get any home games in the NCAA's, the Selection Committee will hold that bad road record against Georgia Tech.

DMoore said...

Wow. We're seeing Georgia Tech and FSU through very different glasses. I thought the Top 50 win comparison showed the difference. I value strong wins over bad losses, since many excellent teams will have 1-3 bad games in a season.

GA Tech beat 8 of the 15 strong teams they played. FSU only beat 5 of the 14 strong teams they played.

Setting aside the common opponents they beat, are you saying that FSU's beating Florida, Maryland and Virginia Tech is better than Tech's beating UNC, Memphis, Boston College and Purdue? I can't see that. The sweep of FSU is just icing.

In my mind, the win over Memphis is a second top 10 win that FSU doesn't have, and it was on a neutral court. I think the neutral court wins against Memphis and Purdue go a long way toward washing away the road issues. You don't play true road games in the tourney, only neutral ones.

I compared Tech and FSU because comparisons with conference teams are often more clear, since they have so many common opponents. Comparing overall records, I don't see how you could put Purdue or Kansas State over Georgia Tech either. The big marquee wins just aren't there. Kansas State only has 2 Top 50 wins, over Southern California and Texas (neutral and away, though). Purdue has only 3 Top 50 wins, all at home -- Illinois, Michigan State and Indiana.

There are only 9 other schools that have 8 Top 50 wins. Having lost to Miami once and Wake Forest twice certainly takes away from that, but I still think it's a much stronger resume than the other bubble teams.

Anonymous said...

Too much emphasis is put on road games. The tournament has neutral games, in which Georgia Tech is 3-2 (including a win over Memphis).