Sunday, March 11, 2007

Final BP65

A couple hours early, but let's do this thing. I have to make assumptions on the last two games, and I'm going to assume wins for Ohio State and Kansas:

1. OHIO STATE (BIG 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. UCLA
2. Wisconsin
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Pittsburgh

3. Texas A&M
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. OREGON (PAC 10)
3. Texas

4. Southern Illinois
4. UNLV (MWC)
4. Washington State
4. Virginia Tech

5. Maryland
5. CREIGHTON (MVC)
5. Marquette
5. Nevada

6. Virginia
6. Tennessee
6. Louisville
6. Boston College

7. BYU
7. Notre Dame
7. USC
7. Duke

8. Kentucky
8. Butler
8. Michigan State
8. Arizona

9. Villanova
9. VCU (COLONIAL)
9. Indiana
9. Vanderbilt

10. Xavier
10. Old Dominion
10. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
10. Syracuse

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Illinois
11. Arkansas
11. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)

12. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
12. GEORGE WASHINGTON (ATLANTIC 10)
12. Air Force
12. Texas Tech

13. Georgia Tech
13. WRIGHT STATE (HORIZON)
13. HOLY CROSS (PATRIOT)
13. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)

14. TEXAS A&M CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. PENN (IVY)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)
14. MIAMI-OHIO (MAC)

15. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NIAGARA (MAAC)
15. NORTH TEXAS (SUN BELT)

16. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. FLORIDA A&M (MEAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

If I missed somebody on the bubble, here are the most likely teams:
Florida State
West Virginia
Purdue
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Drexel
Missouri State
Stanford

Other more distant possibilities, that could possibly get a bid - but probably shouldn't:
UMass
Michigan
Akron
Bradley
Alabama
Georgia
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Utah State

3 comments:

Bryan said...

Well Jeff, I think overall you've got a pretty good bracket.. I just hope you're wrong about FSU =)..the only thing they have going for them is that they haven't had a loss to an RPI team below 50, but they were only 5-12 in those games.. best schedule they've ever played that I can remember in recent years.. but I think they are going to come up 1 win shy.. 8-8 in conference I think would have done it.. Interestingly enough though, the ACC has never had a 20 win team miss the tournament; this year there probably will be 2 (FSU/Clemson).

DMoore said...

Very interesting. I can't really argue Arkansas. Although I'm not sure they are better than some of the other bubble teams, I think there's a big emotional boost to making a run with a bid on the line that that probably put them in.

Air Force is the team I have the most problem with. Although I really want to see them in the tourney, I think they damaged their chances too much at the end.

Here are the teams I see as the top contenders for that last spot, and what their profiles look like. In no particular order:
Air Force
RPI 30
Top 25 0-2
Top 50 1-2 (1-4)
Top 100 6-1 (7-5)
Bad Losses Wyoming (122), Utah (133), TCU (183)
Road/Neutral Record 9-7
Top 50 R/N Wins - None
Non Conf Record 12-1, SOS 137
Top 25 Wins - None
Final Record 22-8

Purdue
RPI 44
Top 25 1-4
Top 50 2-2 (3-6)
Top 100 6-3 (9-9)
Bad Losses - Indiana State (140), Minnesota (187)
Road/Neutral Record 5-10
Top 50 R/N Wins - None
Non Conf Record 11-3, SOS 93
Top 25 Wins - Michigan St (23, home)
Final Record 21-11

Missouri State
RPI 36
Top 25 1-5
Top 50 2-1 (3-6)
Top 100 6-3 (9-9)
Bad Losses Evansville (131)
Road/Neutral Record 10-6
Top 50 R/N Wins - Wisconsin (4), Bradley (38)
Non Conf Record 8-3, SOS 51
Top 25 Wins - Wisconsin (4, neut)
Final Record 21-10

Drexel
RPI 43
Top 25 2-0
Top 50 0-4 (2-4)
Top 100 5-2 (7-6)
Bad Losses William and Mary (196), Rider (198)
Road/Neutral Record 14-5
Top 50 R/N Wins - Villanova (19, away), Creighton (20, away)
Non Conf Record 8-2, SOS 8
Top 25 Wins - Villanova, Creighton
Final Record 22-8

Stanford
RPI 65
Top 25 2-4
Top 50 2-4 (4-8)
Top 100 5-4 (9-12)
Bad Losses - None (worst is Santa Clara, 99)
Road/Neutral Record 6-7
Top 50 R/N Wins - None
Non Conf Record 8-3, SOS 115
Top 25 Wins - UCLA (2, home), Oregon (21, home)
Final Record 18-12

Kansas State
RPI 56
Top 25 1-4
Top 50 1-2 (2-6)
Top 100 3-2 (5-8)
Bad Losses Nebraska (103), Colorado St (106), New Mexico (166)
Road/Neutral Record 9-9
Top 50 R/N Wins - Texas (24, away), Southern California (40, neut)
Non Conf Record 11-4, SOS 227
Top 25 Wins - Texas
Final Record 21-10

When I look at Air Force's Top 50 record, and their Non-Conference strength of schedule, it just looks too light to me. Of these, I like Drexel the best. They have two top 25 wins, an excellent road record, and one of the top Non-conference schedules in the nation. They've played the kind of schedule the committee has asked teams for, and they have some marquee wins on top of it.

Anonymous said...

Now you have Georgia Tech IN? Yo said 2 days ago that they were OUT. They are going to be at worst #11.