Sunday, March 04, 2007

W-1 BP65

Final week! For the last week there will actually be three updates to the BP65. Partly because things move quickly. But mostly because all bracketology sites are judged on their final prediction, so I don't want to put myself at a disadvantage by not taking advantage of knowing the results of Sunday's conference title games. So, there will be an update after Wednesday night's games and Friday's nights games, followed by the final BP65 on the afternoon of Selection Sunday.

1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. FLORIDA (SEC)
2. Wisconsin
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas A&M

3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Pittsburgh
3. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
3. Washington State

4. Texas
4. NEVADA (WAC)
4. Maryland
4. Tennessee

5. Marquette
5. Virginia Tech
5. Duke
5. Kentucky

6. Oregon
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Villanova
6. Virginia

7. UNLV
7. Louisville
7. Arizona
7. USC

8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Air Force
8. Boston College
8. Creighton

9. Vanderbilt
9. Notre Dame
9. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Indiana

10. Michigan State
10. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
10. Georgia Tech
10. Syracuse

11. Missouri State
11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Alabama
11. Illinois

12. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
12. Drexel
12. Texas Tech
12. VCU

13. Florida State
13. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. EASTERN KENTUCKY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Bradley
Stanford
Arkansas

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Massachusetts
Purdue
Georgia
Mississippi

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Clemson
Providence
Michigan
Kansas State
Mississippi State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Hofstra
San Diego State
Washington
Posted by at

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Bradley--12 losses, non-major conference, and 1 win over an RPI top 50 team. Uh, no. Shouldn't even be on the bubble picture. One win over Southern Illinois does not make a season. Even an Appalachian State (3 top 50 RPI wins) has a much better case than Bradley, and they seem to be dropping off most people's bubbles.

March 04, 2007 1:32 PM
Anonymous said...

Colorado State student here again. I love my Mountain West Conference but I am worried about Air Force. They have been a lock for almost all year, but look very shaky now. If they lose to Wyoming in first round of conference tourney (and they only won by 2 @ Wyoming this season), is Air Force on the bubble, and worse, is it in the NIT? What kind of seed does AFA get if they lose in first round?

Also, if Wyoming, or miracle of all miracles, Colorado State sweeps the Mountain West tourney, what kind of seed would we get with ~100 RPIs and 18-13 type records?

March 05, 2007 4:54 PM
Jeff said...

Interesting questions. In my mind, Air Force is pretty much in no matter what. The only way they're getting bumped out is if they get embarrassed in their first MWC Tourney game, and Championship Week becomes a total mess and several at-large bids get swallowed up by teams that I have listed as conference champs.

If they lose a close game to Wyoming, I'd guess they end up as a 10 or so. No matter what happens, Air Force will finish the year with several good out-of-conference wins and a good RPI (currently sitting at 24, despite the recent problems).

As for Colorado State, I'll admit they haven't been on the forefront of my mind so far this year. They have never been in the bubble picture. The RPI currently sits at 116, with a 2-7 record against the RPI Top 100. Their RPI is a bit artificially "deflated" with five games against awful teams (220+ RPIs), and the Selection Committee would take that into account.

It's silly to think about their seeding without taking into what they'd have to do to actually win the MWC Tournament. They'd presumably have to beat San Diego State, UNLV and BYU. That would bump them to 5-7 against the RPI Top 100, and the RPI would jump to around 75. The team would be on a serious roll, and I would give them an 11 or 12 seed.


But I'm sure you know not to put the cart ahead of the horse here. Let's see them beat San Diego State before they should worry about taking out UNLV in Vegas.


That said, I do like the experience that the Rams bring to the table next year. The possibility of starting four seniors should make you, as a fan, drool. I will give them serious consideration over the next few weeks as a possible at-large team for next year.

March 05, 2007 6:32 PM

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