Happy Caucus Day

To my Iowa readers (and I know there are some of you), remember to vote in the all-important Presidential caucus later today. It's an archaic system where only about 200,000 people will have a hugely disproportional effect on who becomes our next President - but them's the rules. Anyway, to the basketball:

#12 Indiana 79, Iowa 76
Almost a fairly big upset for the Hawkeyes. After a close battle the whole way, Indiana ran out to a 13 point lead with about two minutes to go. Iowa came back, powered by senior Justin Johnson. Johnson hit six three-pointers in the final two minutes of the game. That's not a typo... six. But overall, Indiana's lead and win were powered by their superior athleticism. Eric Gordon was able to get into the lane and get to the line repeatedly. The Hoosiers had a total of 32 free throw attempts, which is a lot for any team in a road game without overtime. These types of games are essential for an Indiana team that still has a shot at winning the conference. Remember, they were considered co-favorites (along with Michigan State) in the pre-season. The Spartans have launched ahead as the clear favorites, but Indiana is still chugging on as far below the radar as you can when you sport one of the year's new stars in Eric Gordon. One other note that I haven't seen anywhere else is that Indiana really has a very tough Big Ten schedule, about as tough as it can get. The four best teams in the conference (other than themselves) are obviously Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois. And the Hoosiers have to play a home-and-away with all four of these teams. There is debate over who the sixth best team is, but I'd argue that it's Minnesota - yet another team that Indiana has to play home-and-away. The game at Iowa is actually one of their easier games. Unlike some other teams in the Big Ten, there are no easy stretches for Indiana. If they show any of the inconsistency that they showed last year, Indiana will lose a bunch of games. They could drop as low as third, or even fourth, in the final Big Ten standings.

Georgia State 66, George Mason 64
This kind of game is what I've been trying to warn people about in regards to the Atlantic Ten leaders (see my remarks in the comments section here). What I mean is - nobody would compare Georgia State to George Mason. Nobody predicted this result. But on any given day, anything can happen. In this one, Georgia State hit 55% from the field, including a remarkable 3-for-5 from behind the arc (don't underrate the negative effect of teams launching repeatedly from behind the arc and bricking - I'm looking at you, Pitt). I don't recall what Georgia State's RPI was before this upset, but this morning it's at 300. Meanwhile, George Mason's plummets all the way to 48. This now makes for two bad losses for the Patriots, and another fairly mediocre one (I don't know if losing at Kent State is really all that "bad"). George Mason still does sport those wins over Dayton (looking better every day) and Kansas State. But those wins are becoming more and more distant, and the Patriots will need to start rolling over the conference. They can't lose to another Georgia State if they want to get an at-large. I'm sure they don't want to be at the point where they must win the tough Colonial tournament just to get in the main draw.

Drake 61, Southern Illinois 51
Probably the most important result of the day, although you wouldn't know it from Sportscenter coverage (how North Carolina rolling over Kent State is a bigger story is beyond me). Despite the wild success of the Missouri Valley these past few years, they still continue to get the same attention from most analysts that the other big mid-majors get. They should be getting the kind of coverage of the Big 12 (which they outperformed last year, in RPI atleast) or the SEC (which they're outperforming this year). In fact, the Valley is also beating the Atlantic Ten in RPI right now, which is shocking considering how everyone is calling for the A-10 to get four Tournament bids, while calling the Missouri Valley a possible single-bid league. I do see the Valley as a multi-bid league, but maybe only two. Which makes the battle between the three leaders (Drake, Southern Illinois and Creighton) absolutely essential. Despite this game I am still projecting SIU as the regular season champion. The Valley still plays a real round-robin, so Drake has to head to Carbondale. Unfortunately, that match-up doesn't happen until February 13th. By then, SIU needs to find some offense. They will continue to have great defense, but there is just too much randomness. When you play every game as a 52-48 slugfest, you will end losing some close ones. This year, it feels like every close game has been a loss for the Salukis (the AJ Graves buzzer-beater being the most heartbreaking). Now, the RPI will be good no matter what (the SIU strength of schedule is currently 6th in the country). But without any good out-of-conference wins, SIU will need to have a strong conference performance. I would say that they need to finish at a minimum of 12-6 to even get considered for an at-large. They might even need a 13-5. To not ignore Drake entirely here, the Bulldogs have a remarkable RPI of 17th. Like SIU, they lack any real resume-building wins. But unlike SIU, they've been rolling through their schedule. Regardless of the computer numbers, Drake will most likely end up with a better overall record than SIU. What is scaring off a lot of people is SIU's atrocious 6-7 record. Drake, at 11-1, doesn't have that problem. I would say that a 13-5 season in the Valley would actually make them a near-lock for the Tournament at this point, an amazing turn of events for a team that has mostly been a bottom-feeder in the Valley these past few years.