Midweek Update: Big East, SEC

Syracuse 71, Providence 64
UConn 69, Louisville 67
Cincinnati 62, West Virginia 39
Syracuse 60, Depaul 55
Key wins for Syracuse and UConn here. UConn is really on a tear here, and has pushed both the RPI and the Sagarin numbers inside the Top 20. Barring a huge collapse down the stretch, they'll be in the Tournament. Syracuse is not such a big slam dunk. The RPI is 36th and the Sagarin is 47th - both numbers which are right in the fat part of the bubble. The Orangemen have no bad losses, but have also struggled to get a signature win. If they make the Tournament, they will be one of those "look at the full resume" teams. They did a great job taking care of business this week, with two key wins to drive their Big East record to 5-4. They need to be a minimum of 10-8 in the Big East to get an at-large bid, and that is certainly very possible. If they continue to take care of business, and even steal an upset or two, they will get into the Tourney.

West Virginia is a more complicated case, especially with this atrocious loss to Cincinnati. Losing to the rapidly-improving Bearcats is not embarrassing, but the way that they shot was. Any time you shoot 20% from the field, you're going to have trouble beating anyone. Although you have to question Bob Huggins for allowing his team to continue chucking up three-pointers when they were headed for a 1-for-22 night from behind the arc. Either way, West Virginia would almost definitely still be an at-large team if the season ended now. The RPI is a very weak 48th, but the Sagarin is 32nd. More importantly, the Sagarin PREDICTOR is a remarkable eighth in the country. In other words, this is a hard-luck team that should finish strong. The schedule gets tough, but I see no reason that this team can't pull off an upset or two. They already have the win over Marquette, and with a 4-4 Big East record are poised for a solid finish in the Big East standings. If I had to project the rest of the way, I'd guess a 10-8 finish, which should be enough to get them in. But if they finish 9-9, they might well get left out. Without a doubt, the Mountaineers can't afford any more 20% shooting nights.


#8 Tennessee 93, Alabama 86
#22 Mississippi 74, #18 Vanderbilt 58
Arkansas 78, #25 Mississippi State 58
Tennessee and Ole Miss continue their strong runs. And Vandy should still be fine for an at-large bid. But the real story for the SEC was the Arkansas/Mississippi State game. I don't really know what the pollsters were thinking putting Mississippi State in the Top 25. I know that they were 5-0 in the SEC, but they haven't really beaten anybody. And if the season ended now, they definitely would not be in the Tournament. Still, 5-1 is pretty good, and they just need to take care of business the rest of the way. This was an unfortunate result for a team that needs to just keep winning. Without any glamor wins, even a 10-6 record in the SEC will almost definitely not be good enough for the Tournament. They need to get to 11-5 for me to take them seriously.

As for Arkansas, they're actually probably in a better overall position. The win at Baylor is looking better by the week, and this was a good win as well. They are a solid 4-2 in the SEC, and a strong 15-5 overall. They obviously need to get upwards of 22 or 23 wins to get an at-large bid, but that's not out of the question. Looking at the rest of their schedule, I'd probably project them to finish 9-7. And that won't be enough. But if they can pull off another upset or two, they can get to 10-6 or 11-5. Even 10-6 might be enough for this team. If not, the SEC could amazingly be looking at only four bids to the Tournament. Definitely a down year for a conference that had been so good in recent years.