Sunday, January 13, 2008

W-9 BP65

As always, let's start the morning with the new BP65. I'll try to get to other games later in the day - although if this week ends up anything like last week, I'll spend the rest of the day in this post's comments section:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)

2. Duke

3. Marquette
3. Texas A&M
3. Texas
3. Washington State

4. Indiana
4. Pittsburgh
4. Stanford
4. Mississippi

5. Wisconsin
5. Oregon
5. Vanderbilt

6. Villanova
6. Florida
6. Clemson

7. Arizona
7. BYU (MWC)
7. Syracuse
7. Ohio State

8. Louisville
8. California
8. West Virginia
8. UConn

9. Kansas State
9. Dayton
9. Notre Dame

10. Oklahoma
10. Florida State
10. USC

11. Drake
11. Arkansas
11. Virginia
11. Miami (Fl)

12. Boston College
12. Arizona State

13. MIAMI (OH) (MAC)


15. YALE (IVY)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Georgia Tech, NC State, Duquesne, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Providence, Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue, Baylor, Missouri, Illinois State, Southern Illinois, San Diego State, Washington, Alabama, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Maryland, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, St. Joseph's, Seton Hall, South Florida, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, VCU, Houston, Valparaiso, Kent State, Missouri State, Ohio, Indiana State, New Mexico, UNLV, Mississippi State, South Alabama

Other teams I'm keeping an eye on, but that need to drastically improve their resume:
Charlotte, Temple, Cincinnati, Depaul, St. John's, Penn State, Iowa State, Nebraska, Delaware, James Madison, Tulane, UAB, UTEP, Wright State, Akron, Bradley, Missouri State, Wichita State, Utah, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, San Diego, Utah State


Evilmonkeycma said...

Where are you getting that SMC performs substantially better at home than on the road. Last year in-conference:
Gonzaga: Won by 5 at home, Lost by 11 on the Road
Portland: Won by 16 at home, Lost by 8 on the road, Won by 40 on the road
Santa Clara: Lost by 6 at home, Lost by 7 on the road, Lost by 16 on a neutral court
Pepperdine: Lost by 2 at home, won by 25 on the road
Loyola MMT: Won by 15 at home, won by 16 on the road
San Diego: Lost by 4 at home, Won by 7 on the road
San Francisco: Won by 9 at home, Won by 7 on the road

So against Gonzaga and Portland they did better at home, against Pepperdine and San Diego they did better on the road, and against USF, Loyola Marymount, and Santa Clara the location had no effect.

The St. Mary's team was not very good last year.

So why are you so sure they are going to lose easy road conference games?

Evilmonkeycma said...

Other thoughts not related to SMC:

After electronically following RIU squeak by Duquesne in the last seconds at home, I finally accept that your A-10 scenario is plausible. I still find it unlikely that Dayton, Xavier, and RIU will fail to pull away from the rest of the conference, but it could happen.

Villanova. They are inconsistent beyond belief - so why do you think that they will manage to pull together enough wins to garner a 6 seed? At the rate they are going, they'll end up with several good wins, several bad losses, and be a bubble team.

When are you going to accept that Syracuse just isn't that good this year? Like you said earlier in the year, someone has to lose these conference games, and right now Syracuse looks like that team.

How is Georgia Tech a team that "just missed the cut"? They have one good win (Notre Dame), 2 losses to teams below 100 in RPI (Georgia and UNC-Greensboro), and a 7-8 record overall.

Good job this week.

Jeff said...

I'll try to address some of these issues, though not quite in order.

Syracuse: I've watched them play a few times, and I agree that they don't look that impressive. And they've looked even worse since Eric Devendorf got hurt. But they did go through a very tough out-of-conference schedule. And the schedule is just getting tougher as they go through the Big East. So the computer numbers are going to be outstanding. Their RPI is 26th right now, and I don't really see that dropping much.

Looking at their schedule, I see them finishing either 10-8 or 11-7. If they get to 11-7, with these computer numbers, it's hard to see them doing worse than a 6 or 7. If they only go 10-8 they'll probably be something closer to a 9, 10 or 11 seed. I also think there will be some sympathy for Syracuse on Selection Sunday after how they got robbed last year. Then again, it's possible that they will continue to get poor treatment because of how bitter and idiotic Jim Boeheim always sounds when he complains about the selection process. Listening to him, you'd think there was some vast conspiracy against Syracuse.

As for Villanova, they've been a bit schizo, but they also have a relatively easy Big East schedule. They only have to play Marquette, Georgetown and Louisville once. Meanwhile, they get Depaul and St. John's twice (if you watched those two play yesterday, you'd understand why I pencil those in as very likely wins). I can easily see them going 13-5 in the Big East. If they can hold off St. Joseph's in February, even a 12-6 Big East record would put them at 23-7 overall. Twon wins in the Big East tournament would get them to 25 wins. Getting 25 wins out of the Big East usually means a ticket to a 5 or 6 seed, or better.

I had this same discussion last year with Louisville. They looked very talented but got off to a very schizophrenic start. But I argued that their very weak Big East schedule would lend itself to a lot of wins and a good Big East record. And that would be good enough for a nice seed in the Tournament.

Georgia Tech being in my first group of teams left out? I guess they didn't do anything this weak that screamed "you've got to drop them". Certainly, they're not one of the first few teams out of the Tournament. If I had to pick my first five teams out, I'd probably take Rhode Island, Minnesota, Baylor, Illinois State and St. Mary's or San Diego State (that's not necessarily in order). Certainly Georgia Tech wouldn't be considered.

Clearly, the Jackets need a big win or two. If they don't pull off the UNC upset this week, I'll probably drop them a level.

And for St. Mary's, I'll give you the numbers that stuck out at me. Here are their records at Home and Away/Neutral from the past few years (from warrennolan):

2006-07: 9-5 5-10
2005-06: 10-5 6-7
2004-05: 13-1 10-8

So from the past three years they are 32-11 at home and 21-25 on other courts. That's a pretty big gap.

Remember, unlike most mid-majors, St. Mary's has played a very home-intensive schedule so far. They've had 11 home games and only 4 road games. They are 11-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. I want to see how they perform on the road in conference before I pencil them in for something like 24 wins.

Evilmonkeycma said...

I already went through SMC's conference schedule for last year.

In 2006 in-conference they were 4-3 at home and 4-3 on the road.

In 2005 they lost three games in-conference: Gonzaga at home, and twice to Santa Clara (and they came closer on the road).

I think that the reason there is such a large gap is the same reason you might find a gap at a high-major school: SMC tends to play cream-puffs at home, not on the road. What is their home vs. R/N record against teams that finished in the top 150 RPI? I bet that number comes out a lot closer.

And regarding GT: I think I made a comment a few weeks ago about it that got overlooked. I may not have, but the fact that they've been in that group has bothered me for weeks.

Jeff said...

Okay, well I'm going to try to do your home/away vs. the end of season top 150 rpi. I can't find a website that does this explicitly, so I'm going to do it by hand and see what happens.

First, 2006-07:
Home: 2-3
Away/Neutral: 0-8

Now, the 2005-06 season:
Home: 3-4
Away/Neutral: 1-6

And the 2004-05 season:
Home: 6-0
Away/Neutral: 6-7

So over the past 3 years, against teams that finished the year with an RPI of 150 or better, they went 11-7 at home and 7-21 on the road or on neutral courts.

You can re-check those numbers yourself to see if I missed a game or two. But even if I missed one, the data is still pretty convincing. St. Mary's has been known for their great home crowds. So it's not that they play really poorly on the road so much as that they often play above their talent level at home.

And Georgia Tech, they've probably more or less slipped through the cracks. You're right that they probably belong more in the second category than the first. Like I said in my last comment, I'll most likely drop them next week if they don't pull off the UNC upset.

Evilmonkeycma said...

But doesn't every team? Isn't that what home-court advantage is?

The facts seem to support your side when looking at overall record, while they support my side when solely looking at conference games. I suppose we won't get a definite answer until SMC starts playing road conference games, so I'll drop it until then.

Jeff said...

Of course all teams have a homecourt advantage. But St. Mary's is generally considered the best homecourt advantage in the WCC. They have a small court that really gets rocking (as opposed to a court like Syracuse, where even 20,000 fans will sound pretty quiet in the massive Carrier Dome).

I mean, like you said, let's wait and see what happens in conference road games. Everyone is just assuming that St. Mary's is going to run through their road schedule in conference. I need to see them do it before I will believe it. The fact that ESPN called St. Mary's a "lock" for the Tournament is absurd, in my opinion at least. They still have a lot to prove.

Jameson said...

No offense, but you are crazy to think Villanova will win 25 games. This team simply isn't good. Wait til next year. They don't have a front court. At least when they went to four guards in the past, they had great guards and Curtis Sumpter. This year they have a bunch of a good, young guards, and an okay front court. This team isn't winning more than nine games in the Big East. Sorry, it just won't happen.

Anonymous said...

The MVC's simply going to get at least two teams into the Dance, as the league will likely finish either 7th or 8th in overall RPI, depending on how the league does with its BracketBuster schedule.

Looking at the last nine years of data, the 27 conferences that finished 7th, 8th or 9th in overall conference RPI have had an average of 2.9 teams in the field of 65.

25 of those 27 instances were multibids... only the A-10 in 2002 and the Mountain West in 2001 were one-bid leagues, and in both cases, there wasn't a strong contender for an at-large berth.

The Valley's cetrainly topsy turvy this year, but just because it's not SIU or Creighton at the top doesn't mean that this league should only get one bid. I know that the selection committee supposedly doesn't look at conference rankings, but it's hard to ingore the historical data and think that a top-8 conference like the MVC can only be a one-bid league like you're suggesting right now.

Anonymous said...

oops... I take that back... I see that you DO have two teams in there, so my bad... :(

as you were...

Jeff said...

Haha, yes, I agree with your logic completely. That's why I put Drake in when I took Southern Illinois out. I think the MVC will get two bids - I've been saying that all season and I'm sticking with it.

I'm still giving the Atlantic Ten two bids. They're closer to getting a third bid than the Valley is because they're not nearly as bunched up, but for now I'm giving both conferences two teams.