Midweek Update: ACC, Big 12

I've been a bit delinquent the past few days. So I'll try to update the major conferences a couple at a time:

#3 Duke 93, Maryland 84
Georgia Tech 92, Virginia 82, OT
Maryland 75, #25 Clemson 72
Wake Forest 70, Miami (Fl) 68
Virginia Tech 89, Florida State 80
Maryland 85, Virginia 75
A lot of important jockeying in the ACC. The fact is that the ACC is probably the best conference in the land. I'll hear arguments for the Pac-10, but until this past week the ACC actually had zero teams with an RPI outside 100 - which is pretty remarkable. What that also means is that everybody in the conference will have a great strength of schedule and good computer numbers. Right now everybody is beating up on everybody else, so the RPIs are all stuck in the 50s and 60s. But at some point somebody has to beat somebody else and get up to around 10-6 or so. And anybody that gets to 10-6 will probably be a lock for the Tournament. And most anybody that gets to 9-7 should get in also. Which is why all those people who are projecting only four ACC teams into the Tournament are simply saying that they can't figure out which teams will get those wins.

The games played earlier this week actually did more to complicate things than to clear things up. You see wins for Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Maryland. Meanwhile, Miami and Clemson fell. Clemson would still be an obvious Tournament team if the season ended now, and should still get in when the season actually ends. They are only 3-3 in the ACC, but should be able to get to 9-7. The RPI is 30th, they have no bad losses, and they'll end up with more than ten wins against the RPI Top 100 (they already have five). Throw in a +.500 record on the road and they're looking good. Miami is not looking nearly so good, and missed a huge opportunity against Wake Forest. They are now 2-4 in the ACC and the schedule is just getting rougher. They have to play Duke and Florida State twice. And they have to head to Virginia Tech, Florida State and Clemson. Miami has great computer numbers, but a 6-10 ACC record is far too real of a possibility. In fact, without pulling off an upset or two, that's where they'll end up. In order to even get considered for an at-large bid, Miami needs to get to 7-9. And even 7-9 probably won't be enough. Things are looking bleak for a team with an RPI of 39.

Virginia Tech is an interesting case, because they had an atrocious out-of-conference schedule. They fell to Richmond, Penn State and Old Dominion. Without any good wins, the RPI is a poor 71st. But they are also 4-3 in the ACC, and the schedule strength is getting better with every ACC opponent. Not only that, but they're actually through the toughest part of their ACC schedule. They're done with Duke and Florida State, and only have UNC and Clemson once. A 10-6 record is a real possibility. If they really finish 6-3 the rest of the way the computer numbers will climb, and this will be a Tournament team. Sagarin agrees, as despite Va Tech's early bad losses he still gives them a PREDICTOR of 52nd. Speaking of the Sagarin PREDICTOR, another team it suggests keeping an eye on is Georgia Tech. A lot of people have been ignoring the Jackets because of that 10-9 record. They obviously need to finish more than a game over .500 to get an at-large bid, but they will get credit for a very tough schedule. Both the RPI and the Sagarin put them 57th, which isn't that far from an at-large bid. I'd say that they need to get to 10-6 in the ACC (they're 3-3 now), which is very reasonable if you look at their remaining schedule. They have an important out-of-conference game against the improving UConn Huskies as well. A win there would help the computer numbers, as well as the overall record.

A final team to keep an eye on is Florida State. The loss to Virginia Tech dropped them to a poor 2-5 ACC record, but their overall resume is still pretty good. They still have UNC twice, but don't be surprised to see an FSU pull that big upset this weekend when they get the Tar Heels at home. Meanwhile, the rest of the ACC schedule is very winnable. If Florida State can get to 9-7 they'll be an at-large team. A win over UNC would go a long way. Of course, there are other potential at-large teams here, but I have nothing new to say about them at this point. NC State, Maryland, Boston College and Wake Forest are all in the thick of things. Even the last place team, Virginia, is still alive. Although they obviously need a rapid improvement. I was shocked by those last two losses, and it really hurt their resume.


Oklahoma 64, Oklahoma State 61
#24 Kansas State 84, #2 Kansas 75
#23 Texas A&M 80, #10 Texas 63
Every day, the Big 12 looks more and more like they're on pace for at least five teams. If the season ended now, in fact, they'd almost definitely have six. Kansas, Texas and A&M have all looked safe for an at-large bid all season. Although I should note that this win for the Aggies should settle the nerves of A&M fans who got too worried during their losing streak. This is still a very good team that should still get a fairly high single-digit seed. As for the rest of the conference, it was a real jumble earlier on in the conference season. Thankfully for the Big 12, things have started to clear up. Oklahoma, Baylor and Kansas State all have been on strong runs, and are all looking better for an at-large bid by the day. As I type this, in fact, all three have an RPI inside the Top 30. Sagarin gives K-State a PREDICTOR of 15, so they should continue to win big. I don't think anybody was all too shocked that they backed up their talk last night against the Jayhawks. Oklahoma also has an overall Sagarin rating inside the Top 30. The only iffy team, as it's been since they made their move to the top of the conference, is Baylor.

Sagarin puts Baylor at an overall 33rd, but with a PREDICTOR of 45th. The overall record of 15-3, including 4-1 in the Big 12, looks great. But the schedule is weak, and you have to wonder if Baylor is going to fall into a losing streak as the schedule gets tougher. The win at Texas A&M was huge, but they still have to head to Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. If you look at their remaining schedule, it's very possible for Baylor to slip to 9-7. And if they drop that low, do they still get an at-large bid? I say no. I think they've got to finish 10-6, and they've got to finish strong. If they lose something like three of their last four games, it's going to look bad and it's going to keep them out.