FINAL BP65

Well, there goes my theory on Georgia... On a side note, those final three Pac-10 teams are hard to sort out, aren't they? My final decision was that the Selection Committee is going to not want to give three of the final 8-to-10 spots to Pac-10 teams, which puts one of those teams out.

I had originally thought that the last team out from the Pac-10 would be Arizona, because Arizona State went 3-1 against the other two. But head-to-head just doesn't matter that much in these final decisions, and the fact that Arizona State has ended horribly and has more "bad" losses than Arizona is the clincher for me.

So who else could get in, if I'm wrong? I think VCU would be in if they had just one decent win... but they don't. UMass could get in on the back of that huge winning streak to end the regular season, but I don't think the A-10 gets four teams in. I was originally scared of Ohio State because of that 2-8 RPI Top 50 record, but you can't ignore when those two wins came. Also if you stretch out to the RPI Top 100, they're actually 7-11, compared to 7-10 for Arizona State. The road/neutral records are essentially the same, and the overall resumes otherwise are really close. So in that head-to-head, you go with the stronger finish and that's obviously the Buckeyes.

Finally, you have Baylor, and team that doesn't have any really bad wins, but doesn't have much to brag about either. That poor Big 12 Tournament finish was a killer.

We'll see if I was right...here we go:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. Tennessee
2. Duke
2. Texas
2. WISCONSIN (BIG 10)

3. Georgetown
3. Louisville
3. Stanford
3. DRAKE (MVC)

4. Xavier
4. UConn
4. Notre Dame
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)

5. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
5. Indiana
5. Marquette
5. Washington State

6. Vanderbilt
6. Michigan State
6. Clemson
6. Gonzaga

7. UNLV (MWC)
7. West Virginia
7. Purdue
7. USC

8. BYU
8. Oklahoma
8. Kansas State
8. Arkansas

9. Mississippi State
9. KENT STATE (MAC)
9. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Kentucky

10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. Miami (Fl)
10. Texas A&M
10. Oregon

11. Saint Mary's
11. Saint Joseph's
11. GEORGIA (SEC)
11. South Alabama

12. Illinois State
12. Arizona
12. Villanova
12. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)

13. SAN DIEGO (WCC)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. BOISE STATE (WAC)

14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)
14. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
14. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)

15. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. MOUNT SAINT MARY'S (NORTHEAST)
16. COPPIN STATE (MEAC)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)


If I missed somebody on the bubble, these are the most likely teams
Florida State, Virginia Tech, UMass, Ohio State, Baylor, VCU, Arizona State, Florida

Other more distant possibilities - that could possibly get a bid, but probably shouldn't:
Maryland, Dayton, Syracuse, Creighton, New Mexico, Mississippi