Previewing Next Friday

I've already gone through the first four nights of the college basketball season in this post, but the fifth night has so many games to watch that it will get its own post. Without further ado, a look at three games to watch for on Friday, November 14th:

#19 Florida vs Toledo (ESPNU, 6PM ET): The opening game of the CBE Classic should be a good one. We get our first look at what should be a very talented Florida team looking to return to the top of the SEC after a rebuilding 2007-08. Remember that last year's team had only one starter or rotation player who was not a freshman or sophomore. That was, of course, Walter Hodge, who will be expected to lead this team back to the Tournament. Nick Calathes is an explosive scorer and Chandler Parsons should be a force down low. The Gators were dealt a blow earlier this week when sophomore Jai Lucas announced his intent to transfer at the end of the semester. With Lucas gone, the question becomes team depth. Hodge, Parsons and Calathes will be about as good of a triumverate as any team has in the SEC. But the difference between a 1 seed (which is possible) and a 10 seed (also possible) will be the next four or five guys on the depth chart. Can Dan Werner provide another inside presence to go along with Parsons? Will 6'10" Kenny Kadji from Cameroon be able to earn a lot of minutes? What about the other star recruits? The Gators have a lot of talent, and we'll see who steps up in the season opener against Toledo. As far as competition goes, the Rockets aren't going to be one of the better teams in the MAC this year. But at least they're a MAC team - it's not like Florida is getting to open up against Prairie View A&M or Presbyterian. So a breakout performance by one of the incoming freshmen could be a real sign of things to come for a Gators team that is going to need major freshmen contributions if they're going to win an SEC title. [ed. note: I had a brain freeze when I wrote this and replaced Charlie Parsons with Marreese Speights. It has been corrected]

North Carolina Central at #24 Wake Forest (7PM ET): This will be our first chance to see whether I made a mistake in hyping Wake Forest during the preseason. The returning pieces are going to be pretty good, as last year's team was not all that bad and had zero seniors. L.D. Williams has looked very good so far this preseason, and he has a solid backcourt mate in Jeff Teague. But the real thing I'm looking for will be the three high school stars who comprise Skip Prosser's final recruiting class before his tragic death. 7-footer Ty Walker and 6'10" Tony Woods will both be a big part of a frontcourt that will include last year's leading scorer, James Johnson. But the real star is Al-Farouq Aminu, the 6'8" slasher who has NBA Lottery written all over him. If Wake Forest is going to challenge North Carolina, it will be because Aminu ends up being one of the top freshmen in the nation. The only real question is whether the pencil-thin Aminu can handle the rigors of ACC basketball. The skill set and pure talent of the 2008 Georgia Mr. Basketball cannot be questioned. This game won't be on tv nationally, but check the box score to get a sense of the debuts of Aminu, Walker and Woods.

Illinois-Chicago at Bradley (8PM ET): This is an important early season tone setter for both of these teams. My preseason prediction is that Illinois-Chicago will not be a serious contender in the Horizon League, but a win over Bradley would immediately raise expectations among UIC fans. Bradley, on the other hand, feels like a real bubble team. They could potentially challenge for the MVC crown, but there's no reason to think that the MVC will be a one-bid conference for two years in a row regardless. A win over UIC won't be easy, but it's the type of game that an at-large team wins. A loss here would put a lot of pressure on them to get a big out-of-conference scalp. They take on Florida in Gainesville on Sunday the 16th as part of the CBE Classic. The Braves also head to Michigan State and get Butler at home. And they'll obviously have some chances at big wins in conference play. For a mid-major team, the margin of error for an at-large bid is often very small unless your resume features a really big win. Assuming that wins at Florida and Michigan State are real reaches, that means Bradley is unlikely to have a Top 25 win on their resume this season (nobody else on their schedule received more than seven votes in the preseason AP poll). That means that the margin of error will be very small for Bradley, and they cannot afford a loss to a team like UIC.