Monday, April 12, 2010

Preseason BP65

Here we go: my preseason prediction for the Field of 65 for 2011. I'm optimistically keeping this a field of 65 because I'm hoping that the NCAA won't mess up the Tournament... at least not for 2011. If they do then I'll be back soon with a BP96. To see my reasoning for why I have teams where I have them, please check out my complete 2010-11 conference previews here.

For those that ask how accurate I can be when we don't even know where some of the top recruits in the nation will sign, or who will be coaching some of the top teams, the answer is that I've gotten pretty good at working with the information I have. You can see last year's BP65 here. Of the 65 teams I put in the field, 40 ended up getting in. And if we take out those smaller conferences, where the conference tournament is often something of a crapshoot, I did better. Of the 44 teams I picked to earn an 11 seed or higher, 33 made the Tournament, and I nailed 14 of those within 2 seeds of their correct spot. Of the teams that I gave a 5 seed or higher, 19 of 20 made the Tournament (the one exception was North Carolina... I'm pretty sure everybody whiffed on them).

The next BP65 will be out the week of the NBA Draft. Without further ado, here's how I see the Field of 65 ending up 11 months from now:

1. MICHIGAN STATE (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
1. TEXAS (BIG 12)

2. TENNESSEE (SEC)
2. Purdue
2. North Carolina
2. BUTLER (HORIZON)

3. WASHINGTON (PAC-10)
3. Kansas State
3. Pittsburgh
3. Kansas

4. Kentucky
4. Ohio State
4. Baylor
4. BYU (MWC)

5. Syracuse
5. Virginia Tech
5. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
5. Florida

6. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
6. Illinois
6. GONZAGA (WCC)
6. Texas A&M

7. Villanova
7. New Mexico
7. WICHITA STATE (MVC)
7. Mississippi

8. Temple
8. West Virginia
8. Wisconsin
8. UNLV

9. Arizona State
9. UTEP
9. Boston College
9. UTAH STATE (WAC)

10. Oklahoma State
10. Louisville
10. San Diego State
10. Northwestern

11. Vanderbilt
11. Clemson
11. Missouri
11. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)

12. Marquette
12. Saint Louis
12. California
12. Florida State

13. IONA (MAAC)
13. OHIO (MAC)
13. HARVARD (IVY)
13. MURRAY STATE (OVC)

14. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
14. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
14. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
14. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
15. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

16. BOSTON UNIVERSITY (AMERICA EAST)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. MOUNT ST. MARY'S (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Maryland, Miami (Fl), Dayton, UConn, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Minnesota, VCU, Creighton, Saint Mary's, New Mexico State

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Georgia Tech, Duquesne, Richmond, Saint John's, Indiana, Oklahoma, George Mason, UAB, Fairfield, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, Arizona, UCLA, USC, Arkansas, Mississippi State, South Carolina

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Wake Forest, Charlotte, Rhode Island, Cincinnati, South Florida, Michigan, Penn State, Colorado, Texas Tech, UC Santa Barbara, Drexel, Northeastern, Central Florida, Southern Miss, Tulsa, Cleveland State, Wright State, Princeton, St. Peter's, Siena, Akron, Kent State, Bradley, Southern Illinois, Utah, Oregon, Stanford, Washington State, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Portland, Fresno State, Nevada

2 comments:

barrano247 said...

I think you might be overrating UNC a bit next year. Coming off last year they definitely are more talented and experienced, but They remind me a lot of the past Duke teams like in 07-08 and 08-09, where There was a lot of talent but a lack of good post players. I think UNC also lacks as good coaching that duke had, so although it shouldnt be as bad as last year, UNC still will not be a true title contender, maybe a top 3-4 seed in the end. However, like Duke, UNC will blossom again in a year or 2 and probably win another title, if Duke doesnt steal it from them

Jeff said...

Well as I said, the key is Tyler Zeller staying healthy. If he gets hurt again then they are indeed very short on inside players. But if he's healthy then you'll find very few teams that will have a one-two punch down low like Zeller and Harrison Barnes.