Alabama Shocks Kentucky Creating SEC Disarray

Alabama 68, #12 Kentucky 66
This is why it's so hard to win with such a young team. Nobody handles superfreshmen better than John Calipari, but it takes a long time for any coach to convince these kids that are so impressed with themselves that even a lowly program like Alabama has a roster full of guys that also dominated in high school and have the talent to beat you if you don't bring intensity and energy. Kentucky sleep-walked their way to a 20 point deficit with about 15:30 to go. They finally woke up late in the game, and if they had two or three more minutes of regulation they'd probably have won, but there wasn't and they lost. The SEC East is now a total mess. The leader of the division is, naturally, South Carolina - the team picked by most to finish last. In last place is Vanderbilt, probably the second best team in the conference. And Vandy is only a half game behind the other two most talented teams, Tennessee and Kentucky. Of course, Kentucky is still the heavy favorite to win the SEC. But this loss weakens their resume. They have wins over Washington, Notre Dame and Louisville, but now a bad loss to Alabama. Their RPI is 15th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has slipped to 18th. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate Kentucky as a Top Ten team, but they have a heck of an uphill battle for a 1 seed. They can actually win the SEC regular season and tournament title and still end up with a 3 seed if they have too many more weak performances along the way. As for Alabama, they're actually not as bad of a team as people think they are. They have a Sagarin PREDICTOR of 57th and Pomeroy actually rates them 50th. But that said their resume is awful. This is their first quality win and they've got losses to St. Peter's, Iowa, Arkansas, Providence and Seton Hall. Their RPI is 145th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 124th. They are 3-1 in SEC play so far but they have to finish no worse than 11-5 to have any chance of being on the bubble.

#16 Notre Dame 66, Cincinnati 58
This game wasn't really as close as the final score would suggest. Notre Dame had their first double-digit lead only about eight minutes in and held around a 15 point lead the rest away before a furious Cincy rally briefly got the deficit down to five before finally settling at eight. It was a solid game from the Irish. All five starters scored in double-digits, they committed only ten turnovers and had 14 assists on 20 made shots. They lack the explosiveness to beat elite teams on the road, but at home they are so solid that it takes a spectacular performance to knock them off. This win pushes Notre Dame back into the top half of the Big East at 4-3. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them as around the 30th best team in the nation, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 9th, so if the season ended now they'd be looking at a 3-4 seed. I do think they'll fade a little bit, but they should easily surpass the 9-9 Big East record that will lock up a Tournament bid. As for Cincy, they have now lost three of four after a 15-0 start against a soft schedule. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS has slipped all the way to 37th. Pomeroy projects them to finish 10-8 in the Big East, which would easily qualify for them for the Tournament. Even 8-10 might be enough if they win a game or two in the Big East tournament. But in my personal opinion, 8-10 or 9-9 is more likely than 10-8. And you worry about teams that don't have a lot of winning in their blood getting onto skids and letting the losses begin to pile up. I've talked many times about how some of the Big East teams that are currently in the Bracket Matrix are going to lose too many conference games to earn an at-large, which is why they will not end up with the 11 Tournament teams they've currently got there, and Cincinnati is one of the top candidates to fall out.

Old Dominion 64, James Madison 54
Old Dominion struggled offensively in this game, but they toughed out the win with yet another dominating performance from their front line. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 41%, blocked eight shots, and got to the line 29 times. This win helps keep Old Dominion's at-large hopes alive, and they remain the most likely team to make the Colonial a multi-bid league. They have wins over Dayton, Richmond, Xavier and Clemson, and have a bad loss to Delaware. Their RPI is 23rd and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 36th. They can probably afford to lose only one or two more games in the regular season, and the Selection Committee will like to see them earn at least a share of the Colonial regular season title. They can go a long way toward that on Saturday when they play VCU at home. James Madison is also 5-2 in the Colonial, and their 15-4 overall record is actually a half game ahead of Old Dominion. But their best win came over Marshall and they've got a bad loss to Georgia State. While their resume is only just a bit off the bubble, both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate them as only around the 100th best team in the nation. So they are unlikely to ever really get onto the bubble.