Baylor, Cincinnati Bounce Back With Wins

Baylor 76, Oklahoma State 57
Baylor's frontcourt was embarrassed by Kansas on Monday night, and they flexed their muscles here against an undersized Oklahoma State team. Perry Jones led the way with 24 points on 7-for-9 shooting, and overall the team shot 60% from the field. All you need to know about the domination of Baylor's front line was that Oklahoma State forced 13 steals and still lost by 19 points. This was a win that Baylor needed after an 0-5 start against RPI Top 100 teams this season. But a win over Oklahoma State, while a quality win, is not enough for an entire resume, and Baylor's RPI is still 89th after this win, and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be in the same neighborhood. Both their Pomeroy rating and their Sagarin PREDICTOR will be inside the Top 50, so they're a good team that should make a run back at the bubble. They have a big game up on Monday at Kansas State, a team that is beginning to put their season back together and should be tough to beat at home. Oklahoma State falls to 3-5 against the RPI Top 100, with zero wins against the RPI Top 30, but no bad losses either. Their RPI is 39th and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be near 45th when the new numbers come out tomorrow. Computer numbers that strong almost always get a team in the Tournament, but the lack of big wins would have Oklahoma State sweating it out if Selection Sunday was tomorrow instead of seven weeks from now. As a funny coincidence, they have a great opportunity for a big home win on Wednesday against a Texas team that should be due for a letdown after their huge upset of Kansas earlier today.

Cincinnati 53, St. John's 51
This was a killer loss for the Johnnies. These two teams are going to be fighting for the last few Tournament spots, and St. John's was the better team on the floor. But what killed them was the free throw line, where they hit only 12-for-26. St. John's had been 72% at the line for the season, and 72% in this game would have meant nine more points and a victory. The St. John's resume is now getting dangerously mediocre. Their RPI is still 23rd, but they're only 4-5 against the RPI Top 100 with wins over Georgetown, Syracuse and West Virginia, but also losses to Fordham and St. Bonaventure. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will be close to 35th, and their PREDICTOR and Pomeroy ratings will likely both be outside the Top 50. If the season ended now they'd be in the Tournament, but assuming they lose to Duke next weekend they'll likely need to finish at least 5-5 in their final ten regular season Big East games, a tall task. I still think they'll end up in the NIT when all is said and done. This win helps Cincy bounce back after a 1-3 stretch followed a 16-0 start to the season. They are now 4-3 in the Big East and should move to 5-3 when they play Rutgers at home on Wednesday night. But after that they play West Virginia and then head to Pitt. They'll have a much better shot at making the NCAA Tournament as an 8-10 Big East team than St. John does, but even 8-10 is no sure thing. And it will be almost impossible to get into the Tournament if they end up 7-11, as good as the Big East is.

Providence 72, #15 Louisville 67
Providence came into this game 0-6 in Big East play and with almost no chance of postseason play, but they are a much better team than people give them credit for. Marshon Brooks is a darkhorse candidate for First Team All-Big East, and Keno Davis has a whole bunch of good freshmen and sophomores that are developing and improving. This win will likely push both their Pomeroy rating and Sagarin PREDICTOR inside 75th in the nation. But with that said, their resume is still their resume, and they came into this game 0-5 against the RPI Top 75. This win should finally push their Sagarin ELO_CHESS inside the Top 100, but only barely. They'd have to put together a three or four game winning streak in Big East play to get any bubble buzz, and I don't see that happening. This result is a huge missed opportunity for Louisville after Syracuse's loss to Villanova really opened up the top of the Big East. Louisville's remaining games against Pitt and Syracuse will both be at home, although they do have to head to Georgetown, UConn, Notre Dame and West Virginia. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS will likely fall out of the Top 35, but they're a better team than that and I expect them to end up with something like a 4-6 seed in the NCAA Tournament.