Sunday, January 30, 2011

W-6 BP68

Selection Sunday is now only six weeks away. All BP68s the rest of the season will have the full bubble.

As always, here is how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KANSAS (BIG 12)

2. Texas

3. Purdue
3. Villanova
3. San Diego State
3. Syracuse

4. Louisville
4. Wisconsin
4. Notre Dame
4. Texas A&M

5. Georgetown
5. UConn
5. North Carolina
5. Vanderbilt

6. Illinois
6. Missouri
6. West Virginia
6. Arizona

7. Florida
7. Cincinnati
7. Tennessee

8. Michigan State

9. Kansas State
9. Marquette
9. Minnesota
9. Florida State

10. Maryland
10. Richmond
10. Baylor

11. Boston College
11. Washington State
11. Virginia Tech

12. Georgia
12. Duquesne
12. Oklahoma State
12. Wichita State
12. Northwestern




16. LIU (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Clemson, Xavier, St. John's, George Mason, UAB, Cleveland State, New Mexico, UCLA, Gonzaga

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Miami (Fl), Dayton, Penn State, Colorado, Nebraska, Drexel, James Madison, VCU, Central Florida, Southern Miss, UTEP, Valparaiso, Northern Iowa, Colorado State, California, Alabama, South Carolina

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
NC State, Rhode Island, Providence, Rutgers, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa State, Hofstra, Marshall, Creighton, Air Force, USC, Arkansas, Mississippi, Portland

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Georgia Tech, Virginia, St. Bonaventure, UMass, Seton Hall, South Florida, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Tulsa, Wright State, Princeton, Fairfield, Indiana State, Utah, Arizona State, Stanford, Mississippi State


Sam said...

Northwestern - 13-8(3-7), 51 Pomeroy, 76 Sagarin ELO

Much as I'm rooting for Northwestern to break the streak, I just can't see how the numbers can support it. ELO rating outside of the top 70, and the Pomeroy numbers don't suggest that they're drastically better than that(like Maryland, say). Yeah, they just lost to Ohio State by 1, but every marginal team in the Big Ten seems to have a close loss to Ohio State(Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota, even Iowa if you want to stretch it), and they're also the team that lost to Wisconsin by 32 at home.

I see them entering the Big Ten tournament with an ELO above 60, and probably as an 8 seed, which means Ohio State in the second round

7-11 in conference, no significant non-conference wins, a quarterfinal loss in the conference tournament, and let's say an ELO ranking of 61(which might be a stretch if they go 7-11, actually). At-large? If not, what do you see them doing instead?

Jeff said...

If they do finish 7-11 then you are correct, they'll be out. But I think they'll get to 8-10, and that will give them a shot heading into the Big Ten tournament. Don't pencil them into the 8 seed yet - I still think they'll be 6th or 7th.

Besides, I started this bracket assuming I'd be dropping Northwestern out, but the bubble ended up just being too weak. I'm not sure who else I'd put in. Cleveland State has a better resume right now, but I think they're going to lose 2-3 more times and are going to drop out. The only real argument is Xavier, but I think they're overvalued right now because of a hot streak. They're rated significantly worse than Northwestern in both Sagarin and Pomeroy.

But like I said, they've got to get to 8 wins. The only teams that have a shot to make the Tournament at 7-11 in conference play are in the Big East.

Evilmonkeycma said...

I know this didn't benefit from the Sunday game, but I think you might have a winner for Northwestern's spot in St. John's.

I see Kansas St going 6-10 in conference, and can't envision them higher than a 12, even if they do manage a road win. What is your thinking there?

I know that BYU has better wins that SDSU. However, do you think that BYU will grab the 2 seed over SDSU without the regular season MWC title?

How do you justify Washington as a 2 and Arizona as a 6? Better question - How do you justify Washington as a 2?

Staying on the West Coast - With only two games against teams likely to finish in the RPI top 100, both losses, Utah St's resume is much closer to Coastal Carolina's than St. Mary's.

By and large, I agree with what you have to say. Keep up the good work.

Jeff said...

Utah State's resume isn't tremendously impressive right now, but I expect them to win out. They are going to end up with numbers that will likely be even better than last season.

As for Washington and BYU as 2 seeds, I would prefer to make them 3 seeds, but the problem right now is who to put into their place. I think another Big East team will eventually move into a 2 seed, but it's hard to tell right now whether it will be Georgetown, Villanova, Syracuse, Louisville or whoever else.

As for Kansas State, I think the computers underrate them. The one thing computers can't account for is missing players, and Kansas State is finally pulling together after all of their suspensions. They were destroyed by Kansas, but I expected them to get destroyed at Kansas. I think they'll finish 7-9 or 8-8 in Big 12 play, and that should get them safely into the Tournament.

Ken Miller said...

I was a bit surprised that you still have Butler coming out of the Horizon League. I'm guessing that this BP68 probably was drawn up before Butler dropped another conference road game on Sunday, but with 4 losses in the conference now, it's probably time to look at Cleveland State or Valpo. Cleveland State holds the conference lead and don't have any really bad losses, but they just can't seem to notch a quality win either. Valpo is in a similar spot, although they can at least claim wins over CSU and Butler.

Jeff said...

Butler is going to have trouble winning the regular season title, but I still see them the heavy favorites in the Horizon tournament. What I've seen from Butler in their losses have been letdown games.

They lost to UW-Milwaukee in between destroying Valpo and Cleveland State. Butler does have one loss to Valpo that they picked up this last weekend, but it was on the road in overtime.

I think this season is tough for the Butler players after the success they had last season, and so their intensity is inconsistent. It's hard to bring the energy every night when you're not fighting to go undefeated - you're just trying to get through the grind.

Once it gets into the Horizon tournament I expect Butler to lift their level back up where they were when they slaughtered Washington State, Cleveland State and Valpo, beat Florida State, and nearly knocked off Duke & Xavier away from home. I don't see how Cleveland State or Valpo at their best are remotely as good as Butler at their best.

Ken Miller said...

Not to horribly belabor an obscure conference discussion, but I watch a ton of Horizon League ball and I think we can bury Butler after they lost to Youngstown State. Butler's 6-5 record in the conference means they have lost all chance of hosting the tournament or even getting a very important 2 seed (it gives a double-bye), it shows that they are fading fast, and Cleveland State's win over Valpo tonight puts the tournament in the Wolstein Center barring unusual results down the stretch. Butler's last strongest performance was on a neutral floor in November. CSU, despite no real quality wins and a marginal at-large resume, must be considered the prohibitive favorite out of the Horizon at this point.

Ken Miller said...

Sorry, that was late December that Butler had their last really impressive win - not November like I said above. But losing four of your last five is not good.

Jeff said...

I'm not sure how you can say that their last quality win was in December and Cleveland State is now the heavy favorite when Butler beat Cleveland State by 23 points in January.

All of the bad losses have dropped Butler behind Cleveland State in Pomeroy, but Sagarin still keeps Butler ahead (that may change tomorrow - we'll see). More importantly, as I've said before, I feel that Butler plays best against the best teams. I watched the entire game against Cleveland State from a month ago, and to me those teams weren't even in the same league. Butler is just playing down to their competition when playing weaker teams.

Remember, Butler has had four bad losses recently, but two of those losses came in overtime and the other two were by a combined seven points. So while those losses kill their at-large resume, it would be a mistake to underrate Butler just because of some bad luck.

Cleveland State will get Butler at home on Saturday, and I'm very excited to watch it (hopefully it will be on tv where I am - I haven't checked yet). And if Cleveland State comes in and wins by 8+ points then you'll have as me as a believer that there's been a changing of the guard. But I think Butler comes in and wins that game, or at least takes it down to the wire, and if that's the case then Butler will remain my pick to win the Horizon tournament.

Ken Miller said...

That's fair. CSU's loss at Butler earlier this year was absolutely ugly. I preferred to look at it as one of those klunker games that teams have sometimes, but if it shows a real matchup advantage for the Bulldogs then Butler still has a clear path to the tournament.

Jeff said...

I mean, we'll see what happens tomorrow. I have the advantage of getting to watch Butler play at CSU before having to put out another BP68. We'll see how that game goes, and if CSU does win easily then I'll make them the favorites. But like I said, I'm projecting Butler to win or lose in the final moments.