Thursday, January 06, 2011

Tennessee Continues To Confound, Upsets Memphis

Tennessee 104, #22 Memphis 84
As I've said all year, no matter what you think Tennessee is going to do they do the exact opposite. They have their worst losses when they're looking the best, and so it should have been expected that they'd win this game after how awful they'd looked of late. To be fair, Tennessee has better players than this overrated Memphis team (no way are they one of the 25 best teams in the nation), but this result was really surprising considering how many bad losses Tennessee has had lately. Now that Jeronne Maymon is eligible and playing well, Bruce Pearl has opened up to a ten man rotation - something that I think he needs to shorten. Tobias Harris has been one of the best freshmen in the nation, and he was the star again here with 17 points and 13 rebounds. Tennessee had come into this game having lost four of their last six games, with one of those games coming against USC and the rest against mid-majors. But this is the same team that beat Pittsburgh and Villanova back a month ago. The Selection Committee rates a team with big wins and bad losses over a team with neither, but even so those bad losses would have Tennessee stuck right on the bubble right now. They will probably have to get to 10-6 in SEC play just to assure a Tournament spot. They open on Saturday afternoon at Arkansas. Memphis heads into conference play at 11-3 with wins over Miami (Fl) and LSU, and zero bad losses. They open Conference USA play on Saturday against East Carolina, and then head to SMU on Wednesday.

Missouri State 67, Creighton 55
Missouri State's offense has been eating up the Missouri Valley, and they continued to be dominant here, with 53% shooting from the field and 16 assists on 25 made baskets. Their Pomeroy adjusted offensive efficiency has ticked up to 22nd in the nation. The Bears are without a big win or bad loss, but they're 3-0 in the Missouri Valley with Evansville up next tomorrow night. On Sunday they'll head to Wichita State for a game with huge Missouri Valley implications. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy rate Wichita State as the slightly better team, and both agree that no other Missouri Valley team is too close to either of those two teams. Missouri State will have to get to at least 12-6 in Valley play to get onto the bubble, although at this point the Valley is most likely a one-bid league. At 2-1, Creighton has moved into a tie for third place in the Missouri Valley, and their Pomeroy rating has slid all the way up to 90th. But they're an extremely unlikely bubble team anyway.

Harvard 78, Boston College 69
The Ivy League, particularly Harvard, continues to give Boston College trouble. This is the second time this season that an Ivy League team has won on the road at Boston College (Yale was the other). In a sense, it makes sense that Boston College would struggle with Ivy League teams. Those teams rarely make mistakes and don't take stupid shots, which is usually the advantage that Boston College has on other teams. The Eagles don't have the raw athleticism or talent to take care of a physically inferior team like Harvard. This loss doesn't harm Boston College too badly because Harvard will likely be an RPI Top 100 team. BC has quality wins over Maryland, Texas A&M, Providence, Indiana and Providence. They will play Georgia Tech late on Saturday afternoon, and then they play NC State on Tuesday. This is an easy stretch of their ACC schedule, so they've got to take advantage. As for Harvard, this is their best win of the season, and they have only a potentially bad loss to George Mason. But without a big win it's very hard to see them earning an at-large bid. They are the favorites in the Ivy League, though.

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