Colorado State Upends UNLV

Colorado State 66, #17 UNLV 59
Colorado State was down by as many as 16 points in the second half, but closed the game on a 35-12 run. Over the final 14 minutes of the game, Dorian Green alone outscored the entire UNLV team 14-10. Colorado State just played with great energy in the second half, attacking the rim with reckless abandon and handling UNLV's offensive weapons pretty well. They needed and wanted this game more than UNLV did, and it showed in their effort.

Colorado State just finished a four game stretch against UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State and Wyoming, winning three of them. Colorado State is playing their best basketball at the right time, and they're now 7-6 in Mountain West play with an RPI all the way up to 22nd. There are a few concerns, though. They're only 8-8 against the RPI Top 100 with two losses against RPI 100+ teams. And just as important is their 2-9 record in true road games, with the two wins coming out-of-conference against Northern Colorado and UTEP. And that makes the regular season finale tomorrow at Air Force so important. Not just that they can't afford a bad loss, but that they really need to show to the Selection Committee that they can win at least one game on the road in conference play. If they do beat Air Force then I think they'll be in decent shape if they can avoid a one-and-done in the Mountain West tournament.

This loss probably will cost UNLV a share of the Mountain West regular season title. They're only 8-5 in conference play now, though they're a healthy 6-5 against the RPI Top 50 with that win over North Carolina along with a win over all of the other top MWC teams. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is still 18th, so they'd be somewhere between a 5-7 seed if the season ended now. Their regular season finale will be tomorrow against Wyoming.

NC State 77, Miami (Fl) 73
This was an extremely frustrating loss for Miami for more than one reason. They probably were the better team, and were only undone by outside shooting (a 41.1 eFG%, compared to a 56.3 eFG% for NC State). Miami's Reggie Johnson was back in the lineup, but CJ Leslie walked all over him (21 points, 11 rebound, 3 blocks). Miami, meanwhile, just seemed too satisfied chucking and bricking jump shots. NC State doesn't have a lot of depth (only a seven player rotation), and Miami didn't do enough to try to force some foul trouble.

Not only did Miami not need a loss here, but they certainly didn't need a loss to another potential bubble team. This loss drops Miami to 8-7 in ACC play and only 3-10 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over Duke and Florida State along with a bad loss to Maryland. Their RPI is 51st and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 58th. If the season ended now they'd be on the bubble, but I'm pretty certain that they'd end up in the NIT. And that's a particularly bad place to be when you consider the fact that the Tournament bubble should get a lot stronger over the next nine days. Miami will have to beat Boston College tomorrow, and then will need at least one win in the ACC tournament to have a chance.

This win breaks a four-game losing streak that dropped NC State off the bubble, but they've still got some postseason hopes. This win pushes them to 8-7 in ACC play and 6-8 against the RPI Top 100, which sounds respectable. But they are 0-8 against the RPI Top 50 and they have three losses against the RPI 100+ foes. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 64th. They will play at Virginia Tech on Sunday. Even if they win that game, they'll probably need at least a pair of wins in the ACC tournament to be on the bubble on Selection Sunday.

#16 Michigan 72, Illinois 61
Meyers Leonard did his part, dominating the under-sized Michigan front line for 18 points and 9 rebounds. But Illinois really struggled with help defense, and it meant that Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway, Jr. just got to the rim at will. The two finished with 46 points on 13-for-20 shooting from the field and 14-for-16 from the line. So much of defense is effort, both physical and mental, and Illinois just isn't playing with the same level of effort that they were early in the season. This losing streak (10 of their last 12 games) has really sapped their energy. They held 7 of their first 9 Big Ten opponents to 1.05 PPP or fewer. They have held only 2 of their last 8 Big Ten opponents below that same mark.

This is the 11th loss for Illinois, with a road game at Wisconsin coming up on Sunday. No 11 loss team from the Big Ten has ever earned an at-large bid, and no team from any conference has earned an at-large bid when finishing six games below .500 in conference play. But if they can somehow pull that road upset at Wisconsin, it will keep the Illini's at-large hopes alive, if only on life support. They're a decent 7-11 against the RPI Top 100 with three really nice wins (Ohio State, Michigan State and Gonzaga) and their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is a respectable 48th. But they can't go 6-12 in conference play and hope to have a chance. They need to pull the miracle upset at the Kohl Center on Sunday.

Michigan moves to 12-5 with this win, keeping them alive for a share of the Big Ten regular season title, although they cannot earn the 1 seed in the Big Ten tournament. The Wolverines are now 7-6 against the RPI Top 50 and have pushed their Sagarin ELO_CHESS up to 12th. If the season ended now they'd either be a 3 or 4 seed. With a win over Penn State on Sunday and then a good performance in the Big Ten tournament, they can definitely still move up to a 2 seed.