Sunday, February 25, 2007

W-2 BP65

I like continuing to get these out just after the night's games end, so that it's ready when everyone wakes up in the morning. Only two weeks until Selection Sunday:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas A&M

3. Pittsburgh
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
3. Duke

4. Texas
4. NEVADA (WAC)
4. Kentucky
4. Washington State

5. Marquette
5. AIR FORCE (MWC)
5. Tennessee
5. Virginia Tech

6. Villanova
6. Arizona
6. Oregon
6. BUTLER (HORIZON)

7. UNLV
7. Virginia
7. USC
7. Louisville

8. Maryland
8. Michigan state
8. Creighton
8. Notre Dame

9. Vanderbilt
9. Indiana
9. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
9. West Virginia

10. BYU
10. Boston College
10. Illinois
10. Alabama

11. Missouri State
11. Stanford
11. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
11. GONZAGA (WCC)

12. Texas Tech
12. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
12. Georgia
12. Bradley

13. Florida State
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Georgia Tech
Oklahoma State
Drexel
Mississippi
Mississippi State

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Clemson
Syracuse
Purdue
Kansas State
VCU
Arkansas

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Massachusetts
Providence
Depaul
Michigan
San Diego State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn
Missouri
Hofstra
Washington
Davidson
LSU
Santa Clara
Utah State

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Buddy,
Alabama is not going to make the tournament. I don't know if you are looking for a miracle still, but it's not gonna happen. They got swept by AUBURN. Even if they beat Ole Miss and Mississippi State, they're still on the outside looking in. Where is the quality road win? 8-8 in the atrocious SEC West will not get you in this year, even if it wins the division.

DMoore said...

I agree that Alabama is not going to make the tourney, but that's because I would project them to lose one of their games against Ole Miss or Mississippi State at this point. Their RPI has slipped to 39, and they have simply been a mediocre team since January (1-3 against the top 50, and 6-6 against 51-110). Without a healthy Ronald Steele, they are not talented enough to be a solid SEC team.

Bradley is an interesting pick. They're viable, but they'll have to play Northern Iowa in the first round of Arch Madness, who just beat them at Bradley. I'd have to expect them to lose in the first round of that tourney, which will knock them out.

Anonymous said...

I am a Colorado State student...so I have a mountain west bias...but why does San Diego State need a "turnaround?" They've won 7 of their last 8, are clearly hot, and have beaten the top 3 teams in the conference--all solid tourney teams--easily. Aside from lose at W. Michgan, loses are acceptable: Wash St., Arizona, UNLV, BYU, Air Force are all good teams, and Wyoming is near the top 100. They have four quality wins. Their last two games are winnable, giving them 20-8, RPI inside the top 50 and 9 wins in last 10 games. Isn't that good enough, along with 1 win in the conference tournament?

Anonymous said...

No way is UCLA not the overall #1 seed right now, and not just because UNC lost today. They were the overall #1 last week too.

Jeff said...

Anonymous, you're right that San Diego State is on a roll, so they don't really "need a big turnaround". But what it really means to be in that third grouping outside the BP65 is that there isn't nearly enough in the resume to warrant a bid right now - regardless of what kind of roll the team is on. The first tier has the first group of teams that just missed. The second tier has teams that can be rationalized as in the Tournament, but probably need a little bit more. And the third tier has teams with decent resumes, but no one other than die hard fans think they should be in the Tournament right now. I think that's San Diego State: If the season ended now I can't see them in the Dance. That said, if they can win out all the way to the conference finals, I could see them sneaking in. Depends on how other teams perform.

As for Bradley, they obviously have to beat Northern Iowa in the MVC Tourney or they're going to the NIT. And I think a win over Southern Illinois in the Semis would make them a lock for the Tournament. But I think that even a close loss (which is what I see happening) will be enough if they get appropriate help during Championship Week (i.e. no teams like Detroit getting hot and winning a conference title and stealing a Tournament spot).


As for Alabama, I'm obviously assuming they win those last 2 regular season games. Wins there probably gets them the division title. And if that's the case, they would be the 6th team to be selected from the SEC. I really can't see the Selection Committee denying the SEC a 6th team when people are talking about six from the Big 10 (an inferior conference this year) and eight from the ACC (a similar conference this year). I also can't see them denying the winner of half of the SEC, especially with the good RPI that Bama has.

DMoore said...

I would also predict San Diego State will make the tourney. Lunardi is already picking them in the tourney on the strength of 3 top 25 wins (is he a diehard fan?). I see them easily winning their next two games. That would put them 11-5 in conference. That can't be worse than a tie for third, may be only a game out of 1st place, and they've beaten all three teams ahead of them (IF Air Force stays ahead/ties). They should also win their first round in the conference tourney, and maybe a second game if they avoid UNLV (the tourney's in Vegas).

I can see how you would predict Bradley to be in. I'm very surprised if you think there won't be some teams getting in through conference tourneys and shrinking the bubble unpredictably, though. I think that is the real problem for teams like Bradley & San Diego State.

I just can't see Alabama winning two straight elimination games, vs. Ole Miss at home and Mississippi State on the road. When I watch them play, they're just not that good anymore.

BTW, even if Alabama does win both games, they will likely only tie Ole Miss for the division lead. If they do finish in the top 2, then after a first round bye they will likely play either Kentucky, Tennessee or Georgia (in Atlanta). I don't see them winning any of those possible games. So that's 3 straight elimination games they have to win.

DMoore said...

I was wrong about Lunardi having SDSU in his field. They're now in his last 4 out. I thought I heard him say that in a video clip, but either I heard wrong or that has changed.

Anonymous said...

Syracuse is a lock now, right?

Jeff said...

I'm not going to say a "lock", because I think that word gets thrown around too much. Remember, everyone had Clemson as a lock about a month ago. But I will say that 'Cuse is looking really good right now. The only way they're not getting in is if they lose in the first round of the Big East Tourney and get screwed over by some upsets during conference tournament week.


Sorry about being awol on the posting the last couple of days. I'll address this game and others tomorrow, most likely.

DMoore said...

Two teams dropping a notch last night -- Kansas State & San Diego State. Neither of those teams could afford a loss this late in the season, with their hopes already tenuous. Kansas State only has one solid win all year, at Texas. San Diego State now has two sub 100 losses in their last 4 games.

I don't think the home win against Kansas State gained any ground for Oklahoma State, but it did stop their slide and knocked down a bubble competitor. They'll need to win 4 straight games, including beating the 3 seed in the Big XII tourney (Texas/Texas A&M/Kansas), to earn their way in. Doesn't look good.

Anonymous said...

How can you have 2 teams tied for the ACC lead, (Virginia, Virginia Tech) seated lower than Duke when both teams beat Duke head-to-head? Duke has the exact same record as Maryland but are 5 seeds higher at this point when they've lost to Maryland as well? Is this more Duke bias? Can I ask for your justification or are you just going by what the AP and ESPN polls say?

Do you really think right now Duke is one of the top 12 teams in the country? Is it because of their current 4 game winning streak? They're great wins over BC, terrifying Georgia Tech and Clemson, and scary St. John's. (really, who schedules non-conference games the last 2 weeks of the season? especially gimmies, nice way to make sure you don't have a bad losing streak at the end Coach K.) I'm not saying to justify where Virgina, VA Tech and Boston College are, just why the 6th. best team in the ACC is so high above the teams ahead of them.

Jeff said...

I'm not a Duke fan. But remember, as I always repeat, this isn't a statement of what I thought SHOULD happen, but a prediction of what I think WILL happen. And there is a little bit of a bias for the glamor teams on Selection Sunday. That said, there's a lot more to a team's resume than their conference record. Duke's out of conference performance is far superior than Virginia and Virginia Tech's. Duke has FAR superior computer numbers to those two teams, including an RPI of 8. I can't see Duke ever getting a seed worse than a 3 if their RPI is Top 8. Do you?