Thursday, February 22, 2007

W-2.5 BP65

Coming in a few hours early with the new BP65, since all of Wednesday's games are already over. This way it will be up and available when everyone wakes up in the morning:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Texas A&M

3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Georgetown
3. Washington State
3. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)

4. Texas
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)
4. Kentucky
4. Duke

5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. Marquette
5. Tennessee
5. Virginia Tech

6. Villanova
6. Arizona
6. Oregon
6. BUTLER (HORIZON)

7. Alabama
7. Virginia
7. West Virginia
7. BYU

8. Indiana
8. USC
8. UNLV
8. Louisville

9. Stanford
9. Maryland
9. Missouri State
9. Michigan State

10. Creighton
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Oklahoma State
10. Illinois

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Notre Dame
11. Vanderbilt
11. Boston College

12. VCU (COLONIAL)
12. Texas Tech
12. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
12. Bradley

13. Mississippi State
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Clemson
Florida State
Syracuse
Kansas State
Arkansas
Georgia

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Georgia Tech
Old Dominion
Drexel
Mississippi

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Massachusetts
Providence
Depaul
Michigan
Purdue
Missouri
Washington

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn
Oklahoma
Hofstra
Davidson
LSU
Santa Clara
Utah State

6 comments:

DMoore said...

The bubble has firmed up immensely in the past week. When Boston College and Vanderbilt are two of your last four in, there's not much room for weak teams any more.

However, there are two teams that look overrated to me.

Alabama -- a 7 Seed:
These guys have baffled me for a while now. They've been ranked pretty much all season, and have an RPI of 26. I can't see why. Right now they're 6-7 in the SEC, and are likely to end up 8-8. Here's their profile:
RPI -- 26
Top 50 Wins -- Kentucky (8) [home], Xavier (43) [neutral]
Best Out of Conference Wins -- Xavier, Iowa (78) [neutral], Oklahoma (94) [home]
Bad Losses -- Auburn (115) [away]
Conference Record -- 6-7
Record in 2007 -- 7-7

Compare their resume to, say, Georgia Tech, who is listed in the second tier of teams on the OUTSIDE of the bubble:
RPI -- 45
Top 50 Wins -- Memphis (9) [neutral], Duke (11) [home], Clemson (31) [home], Florida State (42) [twice - home & away], Purdue (47) [neutral]
Best Out of Conference Wins -- Memphis, Purdue, Georgia (59) [home], Connecticut (88) [home]
Bad Losses -- Miami (152) [away], Wake Forest (121) [away]
Conference Record -- 6-7
Record in 2007 -- 8-6

Are you (and everyone else) saying that the loss to Miami outweighs 4 more top 50 wins and an additional out of conference top 100 win? Alabama's Pomeroy rating is 52, and they are projected to end up 8-8 in conference. GA Tech's is 15, and they've projected to end up 9-7 in conference (8-8 may be just as likely).

From a subjective point of view, in conference play Alabama's best player (Ronald Steele) has been a shell of himself because of bad knees. The problem has been getting worse as the season progresses, so their recent play is more indicative of the team they'd be in the NCAAs.

Oklahoma State -- a 10 Seed:
These guys are at risk of a late season collapse. Here's their profile:
RPI -- 41
Top 50 Wins -- Pittsburgh (4) [home-ish], Missouri State (34) [neutral], Texas (38) [home], Texas Tech (44) [home]
Best Out of Conference Wins -- Pittsburgh, Missouri State, Syracuse (65) [neutral]
Bad Losses -- by 12 Colorado (230) [away], by 30 Kansas (15) [away], by 29 Texas [away], by 20 Texas A&M (13) [home]
Conference Record -- 5-7
Record in 2007 -- 6-7

In their last 11 games, they are 4-7, with 4 blowout losses, including one to a top 200 team. Their Pomeroy rank is 71, and they are projected to end 7-9 in conference.

I'd have to predict that the collapse will continue and OSU will be an NIT team.

The Babaganoosh said...

I'm confused as to how Villanova is a 18 - 9 sixth seed with a 6 - 7 conference record. I know their computer numbers are very high, but I haven't figured that one out yet either. Their last three games should be easy to get them to 21 - 9, but I still see them as more of a low 7 or high 8.

I second the Alabama notion.

I'd like to see Nevada over Duke as the last 4, but that might just be my Terp bias showing. And I won't complain about Maryland's seeding - I'm just glad they're finally back in these projections for the first time in ever.

But that's only two complaints, and 63 other spots I have no trouble with, so that's still fantastic.

Jeff said...

I'll try to go through these one at a time:

Alabama pretty much has the high seed because of the computer numbers. The fact is that they have an incredibly talented starting five, and on any night they can play with anyone. Even though there's a good chance they only finish 8-8 in the SEC, I see them making a real run in the SEC Tournament. I think they go all the way to the semifinals, which will be enough for a good seed.

As for Villanova, they have been through a really rough schedule. They have an RPI rating of 19, and Sagarin argues that they're even better than their record. He gives them an Elo-Chess of of 41, but a Predictor of 17. Overall he rates them 29th. Their one down side all year has been that conference record, but they've finally got it up near .500, and could easily finish 9-7 in the Big East. The one way they can mess this up is if they get screwed on their seed in the Big East Tourney. They're currently tied for 10th in the Big East, and even with a strong finish they probably won't finish higher than 7th. That means they're probably going to end up playing Pitt or Georgetown in the Big East Quarterfinals. A win there probably assures a nice seed (a 5 or a 6), but a loss could drop them all the way to an 8 or 9.

As for Oklahoma State, you're right that they've really struggled lately. But after this coming game at Tech, they have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. They could easily win 3 of their last 4 and finish 8-8. They also should win their first round game in the Big 12 Tourney, meaning four wins in their final six games. They also could pull off an upset of Texas Tech, improving their position even more.

But that said, Oklahoma State could fall out of the Tournament all together. I'd say that in their next five games (the final four of the regular season, and the first of the Big 12 Tourney) they will really determine everything. I've predicted four wins, which will get them a seed around a 9 or 10. Three wins will probably make them one of the last in - around a 12 seed. Three losses in those five games will probably knock them out altogether. Do you guys agree?

Phil said...

I'm a Bradley alum and fan, but I don't think we make it. The loss to Northern Iowa at home earlier in the week pretty much crushed our chances. Although RPI is good, look at record vs. top 50, and conference record (9-8, 4th place likely).

Jeff said...

Honestly, most of the bubble teams have had bad losses lately. Clemson, FSU, Arkansas, Bradley... none of these teams really seem all that deserving. I think DMoore might be right from a while back - we should be looking at hot teams from smaller conferences. Right now, if I had to pick one, I'm thinking Old Dominion might sneak in. There's been talk about Drexel, but ODU had to get in first. They've swept Drexel, and have an RPI of 37 - to Drexel's 50. Besides, the Selection Committee is going to want to take a second Colonial team, after that conference's strong performance last year. So I'm thinking ODU might sneak into my next BP65. They just need to make sure they take care of William & Mary this weekend, and hope that no other bubble team gets a big win.

Anonymous said...

Hey Jeff, looks to me like your basing your picks solely on computer numbers. Hey, Villanova is a good team but they have an under .500 conference record and have been a little shaky as of late. A six seed to me is way too high.