Thursday, February 15, 2007

W-3.5 BP65

Three and a half weeks to go, and we're starting our twice-a-week BP65's. Here goes:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS A&M (BIG 12)
2. Kansas

3. Oregon
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Arizona
3. Washington State

4. Texas
4. Georgetown
4. Kentucky
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)

5. Duke
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
5. Indiana

6. USC
6. Marquette
6. Alabama
6. Boston College

7. Villanova
7. Creighton
7. West Virginia
7. Tennessee

8. Virginia Tech
8. Oklahoma State
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Missouri State

9. BYU
9. Virginia
9. Stanford
9. Clemson

10. Maryland
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Kansas State
10. Vanderbilt

11. Notre Dame
11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. UNLV
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Texas Tech
12. Louisville
12. Illinois
12. Florida State

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Syracuse
Michigan State
Arkansas
Georgia
Mississippi

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Georgia Tech
Providence
Michigan
Oklahoma
Old Dominion
Bradley
San Diego State
Washington
Mississippi State

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Dayton
Massachusetts
Depaul
UConn
Purdue
Drexel
Wichita State
LSU
New Mexico State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Iowa
Missouri
Hofstra
Northern Iowa
California
Davidson
Santa Clara
Utah State

2 comments:

Dmoore said...

Sure, hindsight helps. I realize your post was before last night's games. And I apologize for my oncoming cynicism (not directed at you).

I think Purdue should be moved up two notches, to be one of the last picks in the field. The (home) win over Indiana should get them to 9-7 in conference (10-6 if they can win at Iowa.). Their RPI is currently 35, although that should take a hit with their last 3 games against top 150-200 teams. Their record (and their closing schedule) is remarkably similar to Illinois' -- I don't see any clear distinctions making one team's record better than the other's.

The interesting comparison is with Florida State. They are only 7-9 in conference, but they have the marquee win out of conference (Florida), and a better RPI.

The more I look, we're at the serious hair splitting portion of the season. Louisville has a shiny conference record, and will probably end up 11-5 in conference, but has only beaten one top 50 team all season -- Pittsburgh.

Why do you have Kansas State so high (well, higher)? Yes, they're one of the contending bubble teams, but unless they beat Kansas or Oklahoma State on the road, I only see two top 50 wins all season (Texas on the road, and USC on a neutral court). Maybe that says a lot about this year's bubble. Do people seriously want to expand the tourney? There's more than enough mediocrity here already.

Wow, Vandy and Maryland (soon to be 7-9 in conference?) are bubble powerhouses compared to these guys. That's just wrong. Aren't there any nice mid-majors to look at? If you have to pick shiny records with no real wins, they really ought to be shinier than this.

DMoore said...

San Diego State. I was looking for a decent team, that is on a roll, to replace some of the incredibly lame teams that comprise the bubble currently. Their RPI is 51 (weak but bearable), they have two good wins in their last 5 (Air Force & UNLV, both at home), and appear to have improved significantly from their mid-season slump. If they can go 4-1 in their last 5 games (very possible, with BYU at home and 3 road games against 100+ RPI teams), then they should be a solid contender. Given their probable finish, I think they will look better than some of the teams currently "in".