Sunday, February 04, 2007

W-5 BP65

Without much ado, the new BP65:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS A&M (BIG 12)
2. Oregon

3. Kansas
3. Duke
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Oklahoma State

4. Arizona
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)
4. Alabama
4. Marquette

5. Texas
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. Washington State
5. Georgetown

6. USC
6. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
6. Kentucky
6. Boston College

7. Tennessee
7. Indiana
7. Creighton
7. Clemson

8. Illinois
8. West Virginia
8. Missouri State
8. BUTLER (HOR)


9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. Notre Dame
9. Texas Tech
9. Michigan State

10. BYU
10. Virginia Tech
10. Kansas State
10. Florida State

11. Vanderbilt
11. Louisville
11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Arkansas
12. Stanford
12. Wichita State
12. Villanova

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. SAMFORD (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)


And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Maryland
Virginia
Syracuse
Bradley
Northern Iowa
UNLV
California
Georgia
Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Providence
Michigan
Purdue
Old Dominion
Mississippi
Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Dayton
Massachusetts
George Washington
Georgia Tech
Depaul
UConn
Iowa
Oklahoma
Drexel
Hofstra
San Diego State
Washington
LSU
Mississippi State
New Mexico State
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
NC State
Missouri
George Mason
Houston
UAB
Indiana State
Auburn
Davidson
Santa Clara
Utah State
Posted by at

6 comments:

Jeff said...

I don't see why you felt the need to litter the comments section with childish insults. If you have constructive criticism, I do really want to hear it. But please don't waste our time because you think I've underranked your favorite team.

February 04, 2007 10:50 PM
Anonymous said...

Oregon loses twice in the same week yet goes from a 3 seed in last weeks bracket to a 2 seed this week?

Also OK State loses to Colorado and stays a 3 seed?

These are not credible brackets at present.

February 04, 2007 11:05 PM
Jeff said...

These are predictions for the final bracket on Selection Sunday, not for what happened this past week. So take Oregon, they lost two games that they were expected to lose. I had already accounted for those losses, but was impressed by how Oregon stuck in tough against two excellent opponents on the road. For people to have overranked Oregon last week without taking into account the fact that they were playing at UCLA and USC the following week is a mistake that I don't make here.

At the same time, I haven't really been impressed by too many other potential #2 seeds. The back end of the Top 10 has been in total flux this year, with teams like Duke and Arizona and Kansas stumbling.


Remember, stuff changes. To get carried away with the most recent game or two is a mistake. Whatever teams had big wins this weekend are due for bad losses in the future and vice versa. My goal is to look beyond what we already know (anyone can sit and copy rankings off the BracketProject site and be "credible") and try to predict the future.

February 04, 2007 11:34 PM
Jeff said...

If I had to pick one team to add to the bracket it would be Virginia.

In addition, I can see why a lot of people don't get Wichita State - I mean, they're 6-7 in a non-BCS conference. But they are a really good team, and they have a relatively easy (and home-heavy) schedule the rest of the way. A final record of 10-8 is reasonable. And I think you're right, I think they will finish 5th in the Missouri Valley. But I think the Selection Committee is going to want to take five from the Valley, especially if Wichita State is that 5th. Let's remember that their out of conference resume was so good that they spent time around the Top 10 and as a #2 seed in many brackets. Their RPI is weak now, but if they win 4 of their last 5 in the conference (and that game at Drake) it should move up around 40th, maybe even higher. That will get them in for sure.


Of course, if the Shockers drop to 9-9 in conference, it's hard to see a .500 team in a non-BCS conference getting a bid. I just think 10-8 is more likely.

February 05, 2007 12:36 AM
Anonymous said...

Well your logic about trying to predict the future makes sense unless one looks at the case of OK State. You have them a 3 seed...yet they still have to play aTM at home. Can they lose that game and still remain a 3 seed? Can aTm lose that game and remain a 2 seed? I think not! Not when OK State still has a game @ Texas and aTm has games @ Texas and @ home against Texas...how does Texas keep their 5 seed if they lose both home and away at aTm?

Face it your scenerios are impossible...quit trying to predict the future and rank your teams where they have earned today like the rest of the bracket predictors.

February 05, 2007 1:22 AM
Jeff said...

The scenario of Texas A&M as a 2 and Oklahoma State as a 3 is impossible? Try this:

If Texas A&M loses at Oklahoma State and wins the rest of their games they will win the Big 12. The winner of the Big 12 will get a 2 seed (that's why I put A&M into the #2 seed held by Kansas last week).

As for Okie State, they actually have a pretty darned good resume. They have the hiccup against Colorado, but other than that their other three losses on the year are at Kansas, at A&M and at Tennessee. Not bad. Their wins include at home against Texas and Pitt, and on the road at Missouri State, Auburn and Syracuse.

Oklahoma State may not get a 3, but it's not like they're getting a 7 seed. They could easily get a 4, maybe even drop to a 5 if they play poorly.


Of course we don't know for sure, but it's fun to predict. Like I said, if you want to know "where are they now" then just read the bracketproject averages. Or you can do it yourself and have other people call you an idiot, a joke, and not credible. It's really not that hard, honestly.

This website intends to go beyond that, since seeding at this point in the year means nothing anyway.

February 05, 2007 1:31 AM

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