Sunday, February 04, 2007

W-5 BP65

Without much ado, the new BP65:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS A&M (BIG 12)
2. Oregon

3. Kansas
3. Duke
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Oklahoma State

4. Arizona
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)
4. Alabama
4. Marquette

5. Texas
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. Washington State
5. Georgetown

6. USC
6. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
6. Kentucky
6. Boston College

7. Tennessee
7. Indiana
7. Creighton
7. Clemson

8. Illinois
8. West Virginia
8. Missouri State
8. BUTLER (HOR)


9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. Notre Dame
9. Texas Tech
9. Michigan State

10. BYU
10. Virginia Tech
10. Kansas State
10. Florida State

11. Vanderbilt
11. Louisville
11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Arkansas
12. Stanford
12. Wichita State
12. Villanova

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. SAMFORD (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)


And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Maryland
Virginia
Syracuse
Bradley
Northern Iowa
UNLV
California
Georgia
Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Providence
Michigan
Purdue
Old Dominion
Mississippi
Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Dayton
Massachusetts
George Washington
Georgia Tech
Depaul
UConn
Iowa
Oklahoma
Drexel
Hofstra
San Diego State
Washington
LSU
Mississippi State
New Mexico State
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
NC State
Missouri
George Mason
Houston
UAB
Indiana State
Auburn
Davidson
Santa Clara
Utah State

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

SIU a #6 seed? does not being on top of the #4 conference mean anything? you're retarded, go shoot yourself, your predictions are a joke overall

Jeff said...

I don't see why you felt the need to litter the comments section with childish insults. If you have constructive criticism, I do really want to hear it. But please don't waste our time because you think I've underranked your favorite team.

Anonymous said...

Oregon loses twice in the same week yet goes from a 3 seed in last weeks bracket to a 2 seed this week?

Also OK State loses to Colorado and stays a 3 seed?

These are not credible brackets at present.

Jeff said...

These are predictions for the final bracket on Selection Sunday, not for what happened this past week. So take Oregon, they lost two games that they were expected to lose. I had already accounted for those losses, but was impressed by how Oregon stuck in tough against two excellent opponents on the road. For people to have overranked Oregon last week without taking into account the fact that they were playing at UCLA and USC the following week is a mistake that I don't make here.

At the same time, I haven't really been impressed by too many other potential #2 seeds. The back end of the Top 10 has been in total flux this year, with teams like Duke and Arizona and Kansas stumbling.


Remember, stuff changes. To get carried away with the most recent game or two is a mistake. Whatever teams had big wins this weekend are due for bad losses in the future and vice versa. My goal is to look beyond what we already know (anyone can sit and copy rankings off the BracketProject site and be "credible") and try to predict the future.

D. Moore said...

Insults aside, S. Illinois only has 6 games left, and 4 of them are against top 50 teams (probably only 3 by the end of the season). If they do perform well enough to be the top seed out of that conference, then their RPI shouldn't slip too much from the current RPI of 10 (maybe to 20?). Unlike many of the other Valley teams, they have no marquee wins out of conference (lost to Arkansas and Indiana, beat Virginia Tech), so a 6 seems reasonable -- that should (roughly) equate with an RPI of 25-28, right? I can't see which team they would replace in the top 4 seeds.

Let's leap to the interesting predictions. The last 4 in are Arkansas, Stanford, Wichita State and Villanova.

Arkansas' current SOS is #7, current RPI of 34, and they have an easy road the rest of the way in the SEC, so they should rack up a lot of late wins. I can see them getting in.

Stanford has been on a run lately, (Gonzaga not withstanding), has an RPI of 36, and has the marquee win against UCLA. On the other hand, 5 of their last 8 games are against Very Strong teams (at UCLA, USC & Washington St, at home against Arizona and Oregon) . If they finish well, they absolutely deserve to be in. But given their schedule, I think that's a bold prediction.

Wichita State -- current RPI of 62, 3 easy games, home games against Appalachian State & Missouri St, at Creighton. Finishing 5-1, they could end up at 19-10, and 10-8 in the Valley. That's likely 5th place in conference. Is beating LSU and Syracuse really strong enough to get them in? I can't go with this one.

Villanova -- current RPI of 19, very favorable schedule the rest of the way (likely to finish up 6-2, 5-2 in conference, totaling 20-9 and 9-7). Beat Texas out of conference, lost to Xavier and Drexel. They need some wins in the conference tourney, but that's very viable.

Bubble teams with a better shot:
Virginia -- Current RPI of 39, marquee wins against Arizona & Duke, balanced by some WTF losses (Utah, Appalachian St). The kicker here is that their remaining schedule is quite easy. However, if the NCAA punishes them for scheduling Longwood?! in February, I have no beef with that at all.

Dark Horse--
NC State. A very thin team, they have been without their point guard (and best player) for large chunks of the season. The instant they got him back, they beat VA Tech on the road, and UNC. If they make a run, the NCAA might overlook a lot of those mid season losses without him.

Jeff said...

If I had to pick one team to add to the bracket it would be Virginia.

In addition, I can see why a lot of people don't get Wichita State - I mean, they're 6-7 in a non-BCS conference. But they are a really good team, and they have a relatively easy (and home-heavy) schedule the rest of the way. A final record of 10-8 is reasonable. And I think you're right, I think they will finish 5th in the Missouri Valley. But I think the Selection Committee is going to want to take five from the Valley, especially if Wichita State is that 5th. Let's remember that their out of conference resume was so good that they spent time around the Top 10 and as a #2 seed in many brackets. Their RPI is weak now, but if they win 4 of their last 5 in the conference (and that game at Drake) it should move up around 40th, maybe even higher. That will get them in for sure.


Of course, if the Shockers drop to 9-9 in conference, it's hard to see a .500 team in a non-BCS conference getting a bid. I just think 10-8 is more likely.

Anonymous said...

Well your logic about trying to predict the future makes sense unless one looks at the case of OK State. You have them a 3 seed...yet they still have to play aTM at home. Can they lose that game and still remain a 3 seed? Can aTm lose that game and remain a 2 seed? I think not! Not when OK State still has a game @ Texas and aTm has games @ Texas and @ home against Texas...how does Texas keep their 5 seed if they lose both home and away at aTm?

Face it your scenerios are impossible...quit trying to predict the future and rank your teams where they have earned today like the rest of the bracket predictors.

Jeff said...

The scenario of Texas A&M as a 2 and Oklahoma State as a 3 is impossible? Try this:

If Texas A&M loses at Oklahoma State and wins the rest of their games they will win the Big 12. The winner of the Big 12 will get a 2 seed (that's why I put A&M into the #2 seed held by Kansas last week).

As for Okie State, they actually have a pretty darned good resume. They have the hiccup against Colorado, but other than that their other three losses on the year are at Kansas, at A&M and at Tennessee. Not bad. Their wins include at home against Texas and Pitt, and on the road at Missouri State, Auburn and Syracuse.

Oklahoma State may not get a 3, but it's not like they're getting a 7 seed. They could easily get a 4, maybe even drop to a 5 if they play poorly.


Of course we don't know for sure, but it's fun to predict. Like I said, if you want to know "where are they now" then just read the bracketproject averages. Or you can do it yourself and have other people call you an idiot, a joke, and not credible. It's really not that hard, honestly.

This website intends to go beyond that, since seeding at this point in the year means nothing anyway.