Sunday, February 11, 2007

W-4 BP65

Starting with the one-month-to-go point until Selection Sunday (which is now) the BP65 updates will start coming twice a week. So, Sunday morning and Thursday morning. That means this only has to hold you for four days:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS A&M (BIG 12)
2. Kansas

3. Oregon
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Arizona
3. Texas

4. Washington State
4. Georgetown
4. Kentucky
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)

5. Oklahoma State
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
5. Duke

6. Indiana
6. Marquette
6. Alabama
6. USC

7. Boston College
7. Creighton
7. West Virginia
7. Tennessee

8. Clemson
8. Missouri State
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Villanova

9. Florida State
9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. BYU
9. Virginia Tech

10. Virginia
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Kansas State
10. Stanford

11. VCU (COLONIAL)
11. Illinois
11. Arkansas
11. Notre Dame

12. Texas Tech
12. Michigan State
12. UNLV
12. Wichita State

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Maryland
Louisville
Syracuse
Bradley
Georgia
Mississippi
Vanderbilt

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Providence
Michigan
Purdue
Oklahoma
Old Dominion
Northern Iowa
California

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Dayton
Massachusetts
Georgia Tech
Depaul
UConn
Iowa
Drexel
Hofstra
San Diego State
Washington
LSU
Mississippi State
New Mexico State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
George Washington
NC State
Missouri
Houston
Indiana State
Auburn
Davidson
Santa Clara
Utah State

8 comments:

DMoore said...

Michigan State in your bracket? Really? They're 4-6 in conference, with 6 games left, including Wisconsin twice and Indiana (albeit at home). Does that mean you project them at better than 7-9 in conference, or you think they'll make it in with that record regardless?

That's, ummm, bold. Given that their best wins so far are Illinois, BYU and Texas. Even 8-8 in a watered down conference wouldn't look impressive.

DMoore said...

Purdue will also get to 8-8, with wins over Virginia, Illinois, and a complete splattering of Michigan State. I'd say Purdue has a better chance of beating Indiana at home than State does, which would put them at 9-7 with a marquee win. I don't think either upset of Indiana is likely, but Purdue looks more likely to me.

Jeff said...

I think you're right that Purdue will get to 8-8, and I think Michigan State will also. If they only get to 7-9 they won't get in, of course. But if they're 8-8 I think they'll have get in on a superior schedule and RPI than Purdue. I know that Purdue is at 39th and MSU at 42nd right now, but the Spartans would need to go 4-2 the rest of the way, to only 3-2 for Purdue. And more importantly, they are going to have a stronger strength of schedule the rest of the way. Games like Indiana at home are precisely the games you want to have over the last couple of weeks - they are very winnable and build your RPI. Indiana is an immature team that struggles with adversity - they look a lot better when they're winning at home than when they're losing on the road.

Remember, I have the Spartans as a 12 seed. Those last few teams all have dicey resumes. There are certainly plenty of things wrong with Maryland, Texas Tech and Syracuse as well.

Anonymous said...

Texas at a 3 seed seems at least 3 lines to high? What do you see in their future that gets them this?

Jeff said...

Texas has played well lately, and they're playing much more well-rounded ball (as opposed to just standing around and watching Durant score, like they did for much of this year). I see them going 5-1 the rest of the way, including a home revenge win over Texas A&M. That would put them at 12-4 in the Big 12 with a bunch of big victories. As well as name recognition - glamor teams always get over-seeded, right?

Texas has a pretty bad RPI, but that's because they unfortunately chose to schedule six out-of-conference games against awful teams. They also have the bad luck that one of their own conference foes (Colorado) has a 200+ RPI. But I think the Selection Committee will look past that and look at the rest of their schedule.

One of the most important things I see with Texas is that they haven't slipped up once against a bad team. Usually young teams find a way to blow an easy game or two. But in the case of Texas, the only team they've lost to outside the RPI Top 50 was Gonzaga. That's pretty good.


If they drop another game or two (for example, if they get swept by A&M) then you're right that their seed will drop. They could go as low as a 7 seed or so, depending on how they finish the year. The biggest problem might be the logjam at the top of the Big 12. With a conference that is overall ranked rather poorly, I don't know if the Selection Committee is going to want to give such high seeds to the four teams clearly on top of the Big 12.


As a side note, I think a lot of people are with me in having Texas as a Cinderella Final Four team (of course, they'd need a seed of around a 6 or 7 to qualify as a "Cinderella team"). It's not hard to imagine Durant going wild and putting up Glen Rice-type scoring numbers and taking Texas to Atlanta. Outside of Florida, UCLA, UNC, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Kansas and Texas A&M, isn't Texas the next most likely team to make a run?

DMoore said...

I didn't communicate very clearly. I think Purdue has a better chance to get to 9-7 by beating Indiana at home than Michigan State has of getting to 8-8 by beating Indiana at home. I don't give MSU much of any chance of beating Wisconsin in either of their upcoming games. And if Indiana wins both of those games, then the Big Ten is down to 4 bids.

I wanted to grumble about some of the other picks (Texas Tech, Wichita State), but I can't find decent candidates to replace them with. I do think Providence could go on a run and earn their way into the field. Their schedule is tough enough to get solid wins, but still could go 5-1 the rest of the way.

Brad said...

Sorry but Northern Iowa is no longer on the bubble. They've lost 6 of their last 7. Unless they win the MVC Tourney, they are out!

Jeff said...

Well I wouldn't quite say they need to win all of their games, but they probably can only lose one more. If they go 19-11 and then make it to the MVC Tourney finals they would have a shot. But you're right, Northern Iowa has become a pretty long shot to get in. There are more than a dozen teams not in my current bracket that have a better shot at getting in than Northern Iowa does.