W-15 BP68

The media very much wants us to believe that the top four or five teams are really separating themselves, but I'm not sure that's really the case. Certainly, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke and Arizona have all looked impressive so far. But it would be a mistake to pretend that teams like Villanova, Virginia, Kansas or Texas couldn't end up being just as good. Even teams like Gonzaga and Louisville have to be in that conversation.

A lot of perception early in the season comes from the early tournaments. So Wisconsin, for example, took a very strong field at the Battle 4 Atlantis. And they looked great, of course. But just because Louisville hasn't been on a big stage early on this season doesn't mean that they won't be later in the season. They're in the ACC now, after all, and still have to play Duke, North Carolina, Virginia and the other big boys. It's a long season.

The Field of 68 here has the same 68 teams I projected last week, though many teams did slide a seed line or two.

As we head into the early and middle portions of December, we will begin the slowest part of the season schedule. I wouldn't expect too much movement in my projected bracket during this stretch. But we're only around a month from the power conferences opening up conference play, and that's when the fun really gets started.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection, and not a measure of where teams are if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Virginia
2. Texas

3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
3. North Carolina
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. Louisville

4. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Oklahoma
4. Utah
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)

5. Michigan
5. Ohio State
5. Iowa
5. Florida

6. UCONN (AAC)
6. Iowa State
6. West Virginia
6. Stanford

7. Pittsburgh
7. SMU
7. Syracuse
7. Georgetown

8. Dayton
8. Illinois
8. Northern Iowa
8. Oklahoma State

9. Maryland
9. UCLA
9. Cincinnati
9. Xavier

10. Miami-Florida
10. Colorado State
10. Michigan State
10. Butler

11. Nebraska
11. Colorado
11. Arkansas
11. HARVARD (IVY)

12. Proidence
12. Creighton
12. BYU
12. Tennessee
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)

13. UTEP (CONFERENCE USA)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON)
13. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)

14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. DENVER (SUMMIT)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. WOFFORD (SOCON)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. ST. FRANCIS-BROOKLYN (NEC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Memphis, Tulsa, NC State, Notre Dame, Rhode Island, Richmond, St. John's, Minnesota, Purdue, Baylor, Kansas State, California, Oregon, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Houston, Temple, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, George Washington, UMass, Seton Hall, Indiana, Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Arizona State, Washington, Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas A&M

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Boston College, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Davidson, Duquesne, Marquette, Northwestern, Penn State, TCU, Texas Tech, UC-Irvine, Old Dominion, Western Michigan, Evansville, Illinois State, Missouri State, Boise State, Oregon State, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco