W-16 BP68

If there's one thing that I try to stress repeatedly this early in the season, it's not to overreact to individual games. Every March there are some November results that look incredibly bizarre. And so because of that, I'm not going to jerk my bracket projections around after every result.

That's not to say that results from the last week didn't move teams around, of course. In fact, there are three changes to my projected Field of 68. I have Creighton, Providence and Northeastern moving in (Northeastern being the Colonial auto-bid), with Richmond, Kansas State and Drexel dropping out.

But at the same time, I'm not going to panic and drop teams way down the bracket over one or two bad games (I'm looking at you, Florida). We still have 16 weeks until Selection Sunday.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection, and not a measure of where teams are if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. North Carolina
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Virginia

3. Texas
3. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
3. GONZAGA (WCC)

4. Oklahoma
4. Louisville
4. Florida
4. Utah

5. Michigan
5. Ohio State
5. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
5. Iowa

6. Iowa State
6. UCONN (AAC)
6. Stanford
6. West Virginia

7. Pittsburgh
7. SMU
7. Syracuse
7. Dayton

8. Xavier
8. UCLA
8. Cincinnati
8. Georgetown

9. Colorado
9. Illinois
9. Northern Iowa
9. Nebraska

10. BYU
10. Maryland
10. Oklahoma State
10. Colorado State

11. Miami-Florida
11. Michigan State
11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Tennessee

12. Arkansas
12. Butler
12. Creighton
12. Providence
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)

13. UTEP (CONFERENCE USA)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON)
13. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)

14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. DENVER (SUMMIT)
14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. WOFFORD (SOCON)
16. ST. FRANCIS-BROOKLYN (NEC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Memphis, Tulsa, Clemson, Notre Dame, Rhode Island, Richmond, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, Baylor, Kansas State, California, Oregon, Georgia, Saint Mary's

Other teams with a decent shot to get onto the bubble:
Houston, Temple, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Wake Forest, George Washington, UMass, St. John's, Seton Hall, Northwestern, UC-Irvine, Charlotte, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Green Bay, Western Michigan, Illinois State, Missouri State, UNLV, New Mexico, Wyoming, Arizona State, Washington, Alabama, South Carolina, Texas A&M, San Francisco

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on:
Boston College, Virginia Tech, Duquesne, Saint Louis, Marquette, Penn State, Texas Tech, Delaware, Northern Illinois, Evansville, Boise State, Fresno State, Oregon State, Washington State, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Portland, San Diego