W-1.5 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)

2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas A&M

3. Pittsburgh
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
3. Washington State

4. Texas
4. NEVADA (WAC)
4. Tennessee
4. Virginia Tech

5. Duke
5. Kentucky
5. Marquette
5. Maryland

6. Oregon
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Villanova
6. Louisville

7. UNLV
7. Virginia
7. Arizona
7. USC

8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Air Force
8. Michigan state
8. Boston College

9. Creighton
9. Indiana
9. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
9. Vanderbilt

10. Syracuse
10. Illinois
10. Notre Dame
10. Alabama

11. Missouri State
11. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. West Virginia

12. Texas Tech
12. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
12. Stanford
12. VCU

13. Florida State
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Georgia Tech
Oklahoma State
Drexel
Bradley
Georgia

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Purdue
Arkansas
Mississippi

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Massachusetts
Clemson
Providence
Michigan
Kansas State
San Diego State
Mississippi State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Missouri
Hofstra
Washington
Davidson

Midweek Update

A quick look at Monday and Tuesday's games as a few more conferences open up their tournaments:

Syracuse 72, #10 Georgetown 58
Certainly the most talked about game over the past two days. Especially since Jim Boeheim feels it necessary to go on the sports show circuit every year around this time to complain about how bad the RPI is, typically because he's campaigning for an at-large spot himself. I complain about the RPI all the time, as any regular reader here knows, but I couldn't help but wince at his awful explanation of what is wrong with it. Moving to the game itself, this goes to another issue I always stretch: Never ever bet against a team playing at home on Senior Day. You could just feel the different levels of emotion between these two teams. This is without a doubt a huge win for the Orange, although I'm not jumping on the "lock" bandwagon. College basketball analysts have a bad habit of calling tons of teams "locks" that aren't actually a lock for the Tournament. In my mind, a lock should never stop being a lock, even if they lose every game the rest of the way. And if Syracuse loses out they're not going to the Tournament. Their resume is good, but not great. The RPI is a very mediocre 47, with a decent 9-7 record against the RPI Top 100. The 10-5 Big East record is solid, because 11-5 will actually lock the Tournament. But I think they are going to lose their finale at Villanova, because Syracuse has been pretty bad on the road this year and it's Nova's own Senior Day. The 10-6 Big East record should still be enough to get Syracuse in with their strong finish, but they still need to spend Championship Week rooting for teams like Old Dominion, Xavier and Butler to roll through their conference tourneys.

Michigan 67, Michigan State 56
Another good performance by a home team with its back against the wall in late February. It's not just Senior Day that generates performances like this. The Wolverines still have a mediocre 8-7 Big 10 record and an RPI of 50. The 3-8 record on the road will also be held against them. If they want to get in the Tournament they absolutely need to beat Ohio State in their home finale. Considering that their best out-of-conference win was over Davidson, an 8-8 conference record is an NIT resume. Meanwhile, Michigan State's RPI of 22 is outstanding, but I don't understand why some people are considering them a darkhorse team to run deep in the Tournament. The RPI is good because they've beaten a bunch of RPI Top 50 teams at home, but they are an atrocious 1-7 on the road. And even at home, they only beat good teams when Drew Neitzel goes off. When he only has so-so performances, like this game at Ann Arbor, State really has trouble scoring enough points to win. Assuming that they get creamed in their season finale at Wisconsin, where the Badgers are guaranteed to be ready to exact revenge, they will drop to 8-8 in the Big 10 with a potential loss in the Big 10 Quarterfinals looming. Despite the high RPI, Michigan State doesn't deserve a high seed unless they pull off another big upset - away from home, this time.

Oklahoma State 84, Kansas State 70
As I talked about a while back, this is one of the games that Oklahoma State had to win if they want an at-large bid. At 6-8 in the Big 12, though, the Cowboys absolutely have to win their last two games on the road as well if they want to have a chance. After losing 6 of 7 leading into this one, Oklahoma State needs to get hot quickly, because their resume as is will not be enough. Speaking of resumes that aren't enough, this loss probably does it for Kansas State. They had that great seven game winning streak that got everyone excited, but in all honesty they weren't exactly beating the cream of the crop. The only Tournament team they beat was Texas, by one point. The RPI has dipped to 57, and I'd say that they need to make it all the way to the Big 12 Finals to make the Tournament (a run that would likely have to include a win over Kansas in the conference Semis).

Utah 74, San Diego State 68
A bad loss for a San Diego State team that was already on the outside of the Tournament anyway. They are a talented team that had the potential to make the Tournament (I had them picked in the preseason), but the margin of error is too small when you don't schedule enough tough opponents. Going 4-6 against the RPI Top 100 is a decent record, but it's not enough games. You've got to schedule more difficult teams out of conference. Or you can't lose to Utah in late February. San Diego State has some good wins in conference, but the top of the Mountain West has become quite the mess. Everyone is beating everyone else. A couple good wins and a couple bad losses don't add up to a Tournament resume. The Aztecs still have an at-large shot, but they have a lot of catching up to do. With teams like Syracuse on a roll, and some at-large bids presumably getting eaten up by Championship Week, the Selection Committee is going to look for reasons to eliminate some potential teams early on in the process. San Diego State hasn't given them a good reason not to be eliminated.

W-2 BP65

I like continuing to get these out just after the night's games end, so that it's ready when everyone wakes up in the morning. Only two weeks until Selection Sunday:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas A&M

3. Pittsburgh
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
3. Duke

4. Texas
4. NEVADA (WAC)
4. Kentucky
4. Washington State

5. Marquette
5. AIR FORCE (MWC)
5. Tennessee
5. Virginia Tech

6. Villanova
6. Arizona
6. Oregon
6. BUTLER (HORIZON)

7. UNLV
7. Virginia
7. USC
7. Louisville

8. Maryland
8. Michigan state
8. Creighton
8. Notre Dame

9. Vanderbilt
9. Indiana
9. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
9. West Virginia

10. BYU
10. Boston College
10. Illinois
10. Alabama

11. Missouri State
11. Stanford
11. OLD DOMINION (COLONIAL)
11. GONZAGA (WCC)

12. Texas Tech
12. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
12. Georgia
12. Bradley

13. Florida State
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Georgia Tech
Oklahoma State
Drexel
Mississippi
Mississippi State

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Clemson
Syracuse
Purdue
Kansas State
VCU
Arkansas

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Massachusetts
Providence
Depaul
Michigan
San Diego State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn
Missouri
Hofstra
Washington
Davidson
LSU
Santa Clara
Utah State

Happy Anniversary

Today marks the One Year Anniversary for Basketball Predictions. It's been a good year, and I feel like we're starting to build a good place to discuss college ball. Over the first few months this site existed, visits would often number only a dozen or so per day, and comments were few and far between. Now, we're receiving well over 1000 hits, and around a dozen comments per week. Also, visitors are starting to get the hang of what is offered here, as well over 100 different "returning visitors" show up on the day of each new BP65. We're at about 150 hits per day throughout the month of February, and have a total of 17,780 hits for the year at the moment I'm typing this. The hit counter is constantly going on the bottom of the page if you're curious. I think that a double in the number of hits (around 35,500) will be a good goal for the next twelve months.

On another exciting note, we're only 3 days away from my favorite part of the college basketball season: conference tournament time. There are just more good matchups during conference tournament time than during the real Tournament. You get teams with similar styles, and historical rivalries playing each other. Duke/UNC, Florida/Kentucky, etc. In the Tournament you often end up with teams from different conferences with clashing styles, and the games aren't as smooth or exciting. Not to mention all of the small conference teams playing for their seasons. There is no other sport in the world where one month before the end of the season, well over 300 teams still have a shot at winning the national title. I can't wait.

Finally, if that wasn't enough to chew on, let's go over some of the key bubble matchups from the past couple of days, as well as earlier this afternoon:

Oregon State 73, Washington 65
Probably going to do it for a very disappointing Huskies team. I won't mathematically eliminate them, because you have so many good chances for big wins in the Pac-10. Washington closes at Oregon, then at home vs. USC and UCLA. If they win all three and run through the conference Tourney, they'll be discussed as a red hot bubble team. But I don't see them winning all three. I don't see them even winning two of three. And if they don't win all three they can officially start selling tickets to their first NIT game.

USC 69, Stanford 65
I hope Cardinal fans haven't been fooled into thinking that their team has wrapped up a Tournament spot. They have a decent RPI of 43, and are sitting fourth in a conference that will get atleast five bids. But they still have to head to UCLA, where the Bruins will be ready to deliver payback for a loss earlier this year. And Stanford also has to play a very tough Arizona team at home that might be desperate to keep their conference record over .500. Losses in those two games will drop Stanford to a mere 10-8 in the Pac-10. Stanford still probably will get in on the back of several quality wins over Tournament locks, but they will have to sweat it out through conference tournament week. USC, meanwhile, seems like a team that should be a Tournament lock, but has an inexplicably low RPI of only 50. The reason for the poor RPI is that they played a bunch of really awful teams (300+ RPIs) that crushed their strength of schedule. It's the trick that the Missouri Valley and Mountain West conferences have used to inflate their RPIs in recent years: Never play teams with RPIs worse than 250 if you can avoid them. If you play team #200 they will still be an easy victory, and your RPI will be much healthier for it. However, I think this is where the Selection Committee will look past the computer numbers and recognize that USC has earned a Tournament bid for their play thus far. For the record, Sagarin puts USC 33rd. It's rare for BCS conference teams to have Sagarin ratings that high and get denied.

Texas Tech 59, Oklahoma State 57
In a lot of ways the Cowboys outplayed Tech in this one, but their thin bench was exacerbated by foul trouble and Tech parlayed good home court advantage into an important win. Tech has struggled with their computer numbers all year, but this win pushes them to 36th in the RPI. They're also back up to .500 in the conference. They have two very winnable final two regular season games (vs. Baylor and at Iowa State) that they really need to get that 9-7 record. I'm under the impression that no Big 12 team has ever made the Tournament at 8-8, although someone can correct me if I'm wrong. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State really has their backs against the wall now. The RPI has dropped to 49, and even if they win out they will still only be 8-8 in the Big 12. The fact is that teams like Florida State and Georgia are outplaying Oklahoma State right now. So, if those teams are still on the outside looking in, the Cowboys are really going to have a tough time arguing why they should stay in the bracket.

Florida State 78, North Carolina State 52
Boston College 59, Clemson 54
It is widely assumed that the top six teams in the ACC are moving on to the Tournament (UNC, Va Tech, BC, Virginia, Duke, Maryland). But many people also think that a seventh team is going to get in, and right now FSU and Clemson are dueling for that seventh spot. Clemson seemed like a Tournament lock just a month ago, but right now I think that today's results put FSU in position for that 7th spot. The 6-9 ACC record is pretty bad (obviously it will have to end up at 7-9, because they won't get in at 6-10), but the rest of the numbers are pretty nice. The RPI is up to 38th, and they have wins over Florida, Virginia Tech and Maryland, as well as Duke on the road. I think that if the Seminoles take care of business against Miami and against their first round ACC opponent, followed by an upset in the ACC Quarterfinals, they will probably be able to wrap up an at-large bid. Clemson, meanwhile, has to win at Virginia Tech to avoid a 6-10 record that would essentially eliminate them from at-large consideration. It's been quite a few years since we've seen a team with such a meteoric rise and fall within a season. I can't imagine what it feels like to be a Clemson fan right now.

Georgia 86, Mississippi State 73
An important win for a Georgia team, and an important loss for Mississippi State. It feels like there is at most one at-large bid to be had for the group of Georgia, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Arkansas. It's essential for these teams to keep winning, to try to put together the 9-7 SEC record that they probably will need. The fact is that the computer numbers are pretty bad for these teams, and there are few good wins to go around. Florida, Kentucky, Vandy, Tennessee and Alabama are all looking pretty safe for a bid. It seems odd that the conference leading the nation in RPI might only get five bids, but it could happen.

W-2.5 BP65

Coming in a few hours early with the new BP65, since all of Wednesday's games are already over. This way it will be up and available when everyone wakes up in the morning:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Texas A&M

3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Georgetown
3. Washington State
3. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)

4. Texas
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)
4. Kentucky
4. Duke

5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. Marquette
5. Tennessee
5. Virginia Tech

6. Villanova
6. Arizona
6. Oregon
6. BUTLER (HORIZON)

7. Alabama
7. Virginia
7. West Virginia
7. BYU

8. Indiana
8. USC
8. UNLV
8. Louisville

9. Stanford
9. Maryland
9. Missouri State
9. Michigan State

10. Creighton
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Oklahoma State
10. Illinois

11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Notre Dame
11. Vanderbilt
11. Boston College

12. VCU (COLONIAL)
12. Texas Tech
12. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
12. Bradley

13. Mississippi State
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Clemson
Florida State
Syracuse
Kansas State
Arkansas
Georgia

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Georgia Tech
Old Dominion
Drexel
Mississippi

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Massachusetts
Providence
Depaul
Michigan
Purdue
Missouri
Washington

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UConn
Oklahoma
Hofstra
Davidson
LSU
Santa Clara
Utah State

Congratulations are in Order

To the University of Wisconsin for its first trip to #1 in the Associated Press poll. With Ohio State and UW switching positions in the Coaches Poll we are going to have a rare #1 vs #1 matchup on Sunday that I certainly can't wait for. Moving onto other games played over the past two days:

North Carolina State 81, #25 Virginia Tech 56
Every dog has its day, but the Wolfpack have had several of those days already this season. As some analyst commented (I can't remember which one, maybe someone can remind me), how much could you have gotten in Vegas on a team sweeping UNC and getting swept by NC State in the same season? Beyond that, of course, is a real issue with this Tech team. They really aren't as talented of a team as a casual observer might think from their wins over Duke and UNC. You have to wonder if they're the type of team that can get up for an occasional big win but which lacks the overall maturity and talent to win consistently enough to be a real contender. Just look at how they're 7-3 against the RPI top 50, but only 3-4 against teams with an RPI between 101 and 200. Pretty odd statistic. Either way, Tech's eight ACC wins should be enough for a Tournament bid. But games like this are going to drop their seed.

Maryland 82, Clemson 66
Another solid win for a red-hot Maryland team. This marks their 20th win, brings them back to .500 in the ACC, and puts their RPI inside the Top 20. If the season ended now, no way does this team get denied. A good turn around for Gary Williams after his Terrapins had really struggled early on this season. Maryland has two very winnable home games left, against FSU and NC State. Wins there will assure a bid, making them the sixth ACC team in the Dance. You should notice that those six teams do not include Clemson, a team in a real freefall. They have 19 wins and a pretty good RPI of 31, but surprisingly lack a single big win for a team in the ACC. They get another good shot on Thursday against Duke. They will probably need that one, since a 7-9 record might not be enough.

#6 Kansas 71, Kansas State 62
Another good win for a Kansas team still hoping to steal a #1 seed. I wouldn't bet on it, but it's certainly possible if the Jayhawks can win out and get a little help. As for K-State, they had that great seven game stretch where they looked like a really elite team, but they have looked rather mediocre otherwise. They have a solid 8-5 record in the Big 12, but 9 losses overall and a weak 1-5 record against the RPI Top 50. Worst of all, their RPI is an awful 61. Also, they just don't entirely feel like a Tournament team, mostly due to the fact that they haven't felt played like one for most of the season. They need to win atleast two of their final three games to feel confident on Selection Sunday. They don't have the premier wins and the glamor name to get in with a weak resume.

BracketBuster Update

Winthrop 77, Missouri State 66
One of the more underrated games during BracketBuster weekend. Missouri State is unquestionably a good team, and they're still looking pretty good for a bid. The RPI has slipped to 42nd, but they're third place in the MVC, a conference sure to get atleast three bids. The key for them will be staying ahead of Bradley in the standings and not going out early in the conference Tourney. The only way the Bears are missing out on the Tournament is if the Selection Committee can rationalize giving Bradley a bid before Missouri State. As for Winthrop, they will be an incredibly interesting case if they lose in the Big South Tourney Finals. Their RPI stinks (72nd) because their conference stinks - only one team (High Point) is inside the RPI Top 200. They have a strength of schedule of 253 despite the fact that they played a very rough out of conference schedule, including games at North Carolina, Mississippi State, Maryland, Wisconsin, Old Dominion and Texas A&M. They have now won at Mississippi State, Old Dominion and Missouri State, as well as the conference sweep. Their only losses all year have been at North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M. And they even had a good shot at winning some of those games, including leading UNC at halftime and coming within a last-second three-pointer of taking Wisconsin to overtime at the Kohl Center. The RPI be damned, this team deserves to be in the Tournament. And I don't care who they're playing in the first round, I'm going to have a hard time not picking them to pull the upset.

Missouri 75, #20 Oklahoma State 64
Another big win for a Missouri team that is going to be very, very dangerous next year. Readers of this website know how much I love Mike Anderson, and he will have a Big 12 force for years to come. For now, however, Missouri's resume isn't good enough for a Tournament bid. So they are going to spend their time playing Tournament spoiler, including this damaging blow to Oklahoma State. Without a doubt, the Cowboys have struggled lately, losing 6 of their last 10 and falling to 5-6 in the Big 12. The RPI is still 36th and they have a solid eight wins over the RPI Top 100. I still think this team is in, and it would take a pretty big collapse to fall all the way to the NIT. But considering how good this team was looking in early January, the fact that their Tournament bid is still in doubt in late February has to be a major disappointment.

#5 Pitt 65, Washington 61
A good performance by a Washington team that has played much closer to their potential lately. They are a strong, halfcourt power team - the type of team that would probably thrive more in the Big East than the Pac-10. The good performance here is a moral victory, proving that they're good enough to be in the Tournament. But the hour is too late for moral victories. Washington is a really good team, but they have lost too many games at this point. They need to pretty much win out the rest of the regular season to be taken seriously on Selection Sunday.

Wyoming 80, San Diego State 71
Everyone jumped back on the San Diego State bandwagon after the win over UNLV, but this loss will probably put that to bed. The RPI has dropped out of the Top 60, with a 16-8 record and a 3-5 record against the RPI Top 100. All pretty decent stuff, but nothing that is going to knock out the Selection Committee. This loss drops them to 7-5 in the Mountain West, a conference that has had a very good season, but not good enough to get four bids. Winning out would push them to 11-5, and likely atleast a tie for third place, and that would give them a good shot. But with games at Utah, at home against BYU and others, that's not all too likely. Still, this is an outstanding team that will be a real force in the NIT if it comes to that.

Michigan 58, #19 Indiana 55
A good win by Michigan to keep their at-large hopes alive. Playing with emotion, with their backs against the wall, the Wolverines showed up to play against a Hoosiers team that has really looked immature and out of control away from Bloomington this year. Michigan now has their record up to 18-9, 6-6 in the Big 10, with an RPI of 58 and a 4-8 record against the RPI Top 100. They're a good team with a halfway decent chance at the Tournament. But let's be honest, doesn't this feel like every other year in the Tommy Amaker era? Their destiny seems obvious: 20-11, 8-8 in the conference, and a nice seed in the NIT. Every year this team plays well, and just comes up a little bit short.

#15 Southern Illinois 68, #12 Butler 64
Pretty sure there's never been this much hype over a game involving a Horizon League team, but this game lived up to the billing. An outstanding game that I thoroughly enjoyed, and I hope all of you saw it as well. SIU plays incredibly tight defense that makes it very tough to score from inside, so Butler wisely tried to light it up from outside. They only took 21 two-pointers in the entire game. The strategy worked as well as it could have, as Butler performed better than I had expected. Butler is grossly overrated, and is still living off their November/December resume. If they get anything like a 5-7 seed, I'm likely going to recommend picking them to lose. Still, another interesting aspect of this game was the differing psychology between these two teams. As the announcers commented, Butler views itself as a perennial Cinderella team, an underrated team that can knock off anyone. Southern Illinois, on the other hand, views themselves as past that attitude. In their mind, they have been a fixture in the NCAA Tournament for nearly a decade. They are an elite team that others are trying to upset. They don't beat elite teams because they're pulling an upset, but because they're better. And without a doubt, this view on the college basketball world has some merit. They have an outstanding defense that can hold anyone to a low-scoring struggle. The only thing keeping me from seeing the Salukis as a potential Final Four team is that they lack an elite scorer. They need someone to get hot and put some points up. If they can get that, they can beat anybody.

Stanford 88, #17 Oregon 69
The Lopez Brothers are really starting to become elite players. This Stanford team as a whole has a very bright future, as their top four scorers are all freshmen and sophomores - none of whom are very likely to go pro after this season. Even better for the Cardinal, this team doesn't have to wait until next year to see the fruit of these good recruiting classes. With this win, they've further strengthened a resume that was already pretty good. With a 9-5 Pac-10 record they've moved their RPI into the Top 40, with wins over Texas Tech, Virginia, UCLA, USC and now Oregon. If they can stay fourth in the conference, it's hard to see them get denied. As for Oregon, they certainly are still looking safe for the Tournament, but their recent slide is really hurting their seed. Luckily, they finish with three home games, in decreasing difficulty, against Wazzu, Washington and Oregon State. I think they win all three, finish 11-7 and end up with a pretty good seed. This is a good team, they've just been in a little bit of a slump.

Louisville 61, #13 Marquette 59
A huge week for a Louisville team that has gotten hot at a perfect time. I had talked a week ago about Louisville really needing to steal a win over Pitt or Marquette on the road. I never would have expected that they'd win both. As of now, Louisville has an incredibly strong resume that is hard to ignore. The RPI is up to 50, but they have 18 wins, including a 9-4 record in the Big East. The conference has been down this year, but there's no way that the third place team is going to get denied. Looking at their remaining schedule (vs. St. John's, at Uconn, vs. Seton Hall) it's hard to see them finishing worse than 11-5. And these two wins at Pitt and Marquette give them the marquee wins that will impress on Selection Sunday. Hard to see this team getting kept out now.

Drexel 64, Creighton 58
A huge win for a Drexel team that is suddenly on everyone's at-large radar screen. Honestly, they're an interesting case. They have an outstanding 20-7 record, an RPI of 53, and wins on the road at Villanova, Syracuse, Hofstra and now Creighton. All of that sounds pretty good. but on the flipside you can't ignore the fact that they're still sitting fourth in a conference that won't get more than two teams into the Tournament. They also will have trouble explaining away losses to Rider and William and Mary. With two pretty easy games to go, the Dragons definitely have to take care of business to finish with a 13-5 conference record. They need to hope that's enough for third place in the Colonial. After that, they still probably need a trip to the Colonial Tournament Finals for me to feel good about this bid. Drexel isn't the kind of glamor team that is going to steal a Tournament bid from a team like Michigan State or Syracuse unless they really blow away the Selection Committee.

W-3 BP65

I know, I've been AWOL the last few days. Let's just get the new BP65 out and I'll have more commentary later today:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS A&M (BIG 12)
2. Kansas

3. Oregon
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Washington State
3. Georgetown

4. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
4. Texas
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)
4. Kentucky

5. Duke
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. Arizona
5. Virginia Tech

6. USC
6. Marquette
6. Alabama
6. Villanova

7. Tennessee
7. Virginia
7. West Virginia
7. Indiana

8. Creighton
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Stanford
8. BYU

9. Boston College
9. Missouri State
9. Clemson
9. Oklahoma State

10. Vanderbilt
10. Louisville
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. UNLV

11. Maryland
11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. Bradley
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Kansas State
12. Texas Tech
12. Michigan State
12. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)

13. Florida State
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Notre Dame
Syracuse
Illinois
Arkansas
Georgia
Mississippi State

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Georgia Tech
Michigan
Old Dominion
Drexel
Washington
Mississippi

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Massachusetts
Providence
Depaul
Purdue
Missouri

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Dayton
UConn
Oklahoma
Hofstra
Wichita State
Davidson
LSU
Santa Clara
Utah State

W-3.5 BP65

Three and a half weeks to go, and we're starting our twice-a-week BP65's. Here goes:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS A&M (BIG 12)
2. Kansas

3. Oregon
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Arizona
3. Washington State

4. Texas
4. Georgetown
4. Kentucky
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)

5. Duke
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
5. Indiana

6. USC
6. Marquette
6. Alabama
6. Boston College

7. Villanova
7. Creighton
7. West Virginia
7. Tennessee

8. Virginia Tech
8. Oklahoma State
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Missouri State

9. BYU
9. Virginia
9. Stanford
9. Clemson

10. Maryland
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Kansas State
10. Vanderbilt

11. Notre Dame
11. GONZAGA (WCC)
11. UNLV
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Texas Tech
12. Louisville
12. Illinois
12. Florida State

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Syracuse
Michigan State
Arkansas
Georgia
Mississippi

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Georgia Tech
Providence
Michigan
Oklahoma
Old Dominion
Bradley
San Diego State
Washington
Mississippi State

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Dayton
Massachusetts
Depaul
UConn
Purdue
Drexel
Wichita State
LSU
New Mexico State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Iowa
Missouri
Hofstra
Northern Iowa
California
Davidson
Santa Clara
Utah State

Wednesday Update

Remember, a new BP65 tomorrow morning. Let's start with a game from Tuesday night, however:

San Diego State 67, UNLV 52
Just when you thought they were out, San Diego State is back in the discussion. If you're keeping count at home, that's now four teams from the Mountain West on the bubble. The Aztecs have moved their own RPI into the Top 50 while UNLV still manages to stay in the Top 15. San Diego State also moves into an effective tie with UNLV with only four losses in conference. And with the worst part of their schedule over with, they have a real shot to finish even higher. As for the Rebs, they are still considered a Tournament lock by most pundits, but I don't really see it. If they can't beat Air Force at home, they could finish the season fourth in the Mountain West. I'm more of a believer than I used to be in the idea that the MWC will get three Tournament bids. But four? Pushing it. Of course, I still think UNLV will be one of those three.

Maryland 85, North Carolina State 70
NC State's Tournament hopes have been dead for a while, but Maryland's are growing daily. They're getting hot at the right time, shooting the lights out in Raleigh. 50% from the field and 7-for-11 from behind the arc is a good formula for a big scoring night. They're still only 5-6 in the ACC, but the overall record is up to a nice 19-7. And the RPI is now 32nd. With wins over Michigan State, Illinois, Clemson and Duke, an 8-8 ACC record could be enough for the Terps. But that won't be a picnic with Duke and Carolina both left. A key will be their next game, at struggling Clemson, this weeekend.

Wake Forest 67, Clemson 65
Speaking of Clemson, another loss now has them right back on the bubble. They're 5-6 in the ACC with an RPI of 29. Basically, they're Maryland. But unlike Maryland, they lack any marquee wins. In fact, they lack a single win over a ranked team this season. Remember that they played an incredibly easy out-of-conference schedule that built up their record and confidence, but that did no help to their resume. I don't even know if 8-8 will cut it as far as the Tournament goes. They absolutely need to beat Maryland at home this weekend, or they'll likely fall out of the BP65 altogether. The Tigers have lost four of their last five games, but three of them have been by two points or less. A tough run, and they deserve better, but every team in America would prefer a cheap Tournament bid on Selection Sunday to sympathy on a tough-luck miss on Selection Monday.

Mississippi 71, LSU 70
Could be the final death blow to an LSU team that has been a total enigma this year. For anyone on ESPN.com earlier tonight, they were my vote for disappointing team of the year. I'll hear arguments for UConn also, although they were expected to struggle a little after losing four players to the first round of the NBA draft. Duke was a debatable choice, and Arizona definitely had no place being there. How can you have an RPI of 7 and be a massive disappointment? By the way, can someone who actually watched this game explain to me how a team can shoot more than 1/3 better than their opponent (61% to 45), outrebound them 36-21, only get called for 11 fouls the entire game.... and lose? In all of this let's not forget that Ole Miss still has a shot at a bid themselves. They are a decent 6-5 in the SEC, with an RPI inside the Top 60. Right now they're still the 8th team out of the conference, and as good as the SEC has been they won't get 8 teams, but they have a legitimate shot at moving up and stealing a bid. As surprisingly bad as LSU has been, Ole Miss has to be a pleasant surprise.

Mississippi State 84, Arkansas 60
Speaking of the out-of-control SEC, how about Mississippi State making a run? After dropping Arkansas to 4-7 in the SEC, the Bulldogs are now only a game out of the SEC West lead. It's the weaker side of the conference for sure, but an SEC West Championship would probably secure a Tournament bid. And I don't think anyone views Ole Miss as an inpenetrable leader. Unfortunately, that 14-10 overall record isn't going to impress anybody. And an RPI of 69, even after this win, is pretty bad. It's not their fault that teams like LSU and Alabama haven't really made for a good strength of schedule, but a good Tournament team takes advantage and wins more than 14 games. I'd like to talk about Arkansas, but I'll be honest, the SEC is making my brain want to explode. Your guess is as good as mine. Let's just see where the chips fall.

Drake 62, Wichita State 58
The Shockers had been on a run, they'd gotten me back on the bandwagon, and now.... they lose to Drake? This was one of those games you write off as a win as you look ahead to future games. But at this point in the year, Wichita State just can't afford this blip. If they don't win their final three regular season games they are done, period. The RPI is back out of the Top 70, and I can't see any reason to pick them over surging teams like Mississippi State and Maryland. On the bright side, Wichita State has to be an early favorite in the NIT, right?

Duke 78, #21 Boston College 70
This victory for Duke is a huge help for North Carolina, although I'm sure that Blue Devils fans don't see it that way. As anyone who has seen this Duke team play this year knows, they are actually a pretty good team. On any given night they can beat anyone. They have just struggled to be efficient on the offensive side of the floor consistently. Tonight's game is a good example of what they are like when everything is clicking. Let's remember, Boston College has played outstanding defense this year, even with the loss of Sean Williams. Back at 6-6, Duke is looking pretty much a lock for atleast 8-8. Even 9-7 looks like a legitimate possibility. Either way, Duke is getting into the Tournament.

#11 Washington State 65, Washington 61
This is now two straight season sweeps for this unbelievable Cougars team. Let's remember that Wazzu hasn't been this good in more than 40 years, while Washington has consistently been elite. This would be like Kansas State sweeping Kansas. Twice. As for the Huskies, they had been playing well of late, and the collapse of California had moved them up to the 7th team in the Pac-10. But I still feel like seven teams is a push for this conference. Not to mention that Washington's RPI is 82nd. They could really use a win at Pitt this weekend. But don't hold your breath. I find it hard to believe that this Washington team has the maturity and athleticism to play with Pitt. I also find it hard to believe they will be able to play their way into anything but a decent NIT seed.

A Tuesday, Who'd Have Thunk It?

Usually Tuesday isn't a great night of basketball. Doesn't compare with Wednesday, and certainly doesn't compare with Saturday. But tonight was out of control with great games, including the tension of Tennessee/Kentucky and Tech/A&M ending within seconds of each other. Oh yeah, and I think Carolina/Va Tech played a good one in Chapel Hill. But first, let's finish up Monday's games:

Texas 83, #20 Oklahoma State 54
A huge second half by Texas should put to rest any talk of the Longhorns still being on the Bubble. Not only are they in, but they're getting a solid seed. The RPI is still fairly weak, but they should move back into the Top 25 soon enough. As for Okie State, this could hurt their hopes at a top seed. Right now, they're probably the fourth team out of the Big 12, a position that probably precludes them from a Top 5 seed. At 5-5 in the Big 12 they also have to win a few more games to assure a bid altogether. I can't see a sub-.500 team getting out of this conference.

Santa Clara 84, Gonzaga 73
A great game to watch, for those who stayed up late enough for it. The Zags home win streak ended because they just let the deficit get too large early on. Amazingly enough, Gonzaga is now second place in their conference, and they are potentially NIT-bound. The RPI has dropped out of the Top 60, but they have two big things going for them. First of all, name recognition - you just feel like Gonzaga should be in. Second of all, they picked up some really good out-of-conference wins (North Carolina, Texas, Washington). Plus, I think the Selection Committee will look past this loss if they can get Josh Heytvelt back by the Tournament. Remember that they won at Santa Clara when he was available.

Texas Tech 77, #6 Texas A&M 75
As I'm always pointing out, bad breaks even out in the long run. And after a slew of unlucky losses and bad bounces, Tech finally got a break in their direction. And after a few bad losses, their Tournament resume is looking a lot better than it did yesterday. The RPI jumped up almost a dozen spots to 34, and they've got solid wins over Arkansas and Kansas. Not to mention a season sweep of A&M. They have a strength of schedule of 7th in the nation, so I'd say that an 8-8 record in the Big 12 and a win in the conference Tourney should do it for them. I see that happening, and I see Bobby Knight back in the Tournament. On a side note, I hope some of my readers were fortunate enough to watch the duel between Jarrius Jackson and Acie Law. I recently accused Jackson of not stepping up to drag Tech to some victories, but he did that and more today. It was a lot more than that final shot - he was almost their entire offense throughout the second half. A great performance for a certain All-Big 12 player.

Iowa State 58, Oklahoma 51
Speaking of the big Texas Tech win, the biggest loser in all of that might be Oklahoma. They didn't do themselves any favors with this stumble, which has knocked the Sooners back to 8th in the Big 12. Oh, I know they're 5th in the official standings. But by all accounts there are seven teams that will get in the Tournament before they will. And with an RPI that has dipped to 73, you certainly can't get into the Tournament with numbers like that. Without any good out-of-conference wins or road wins to speak of, an 8-8 Oklahoma team will not be making the Tournament. They need a 9-7 just to be considered on Selection Sunday, and even that probably won't be enough. The lesson to learn here is that you have to schedule some good teams in November and December, and you have to beat one or two of them.

Tennessee 89, #18 Kentucky 85
A good win for the Vols that should take them off everyone's Bubble. A high-paced game that felt like a gigantic layup line, including another huge game for Chris Lofton. This team doesn't win too many games when he's not coming up big. Tennessee may be struggling on the road, but they've got the RPI up to 12th. This team now has three wins over the Top 25, and will surely give Florida all it can handle in Knoxville in a couple weeks. At 6-5 in the SEC now, an 8-8 record will make them a near-lock for a single-digit seed. Kentucky missed their 8th SEC win today, but they have an outstanding RPI despite the fact that they haven't beaten a ranked team yet. Either way, they're a near-lock for the Tournament as well.

#25 Virginia Tech 81, #4 North Carolina 80, OT
A season-high 33 points for Zabian Dowdell and an unprecedented sweep over the Tar Heels has Tech now a lock for the Tournament. Not only that, but they're now tied with the Heels (and Virginia) for second in the conference, only one game behind Boston College. Virginia Tech and Boston College leading the ACC? What is going on here? Anyway, the RPI is up to 20th, and they're an outstanding 9-4 against the RPI Top 100. No worries there. As for the Heels, not a huge reason to panic. They had several chances to win the game, but just couldn't hit the shots at the end. Those shots will fall in eventually. They just have too much talent for them not to.

Georgia Tech 63, Florida State 57
Obviously Tech decided they wanted to screw up the Bubble a little bit more. At 5-6 in the ACC, and with an RPI back inside the Top 50, the Yellow Jackets aren't done yet. Meanwhile, Florida State is struggling to define a good reason to put them in the Tournament. The 17-9 record? Pretty good. The RPI of 35? Not bad. The wins over Florida, Duke and Va Tech? Very nice. The 5-7 ACC record? Not so much. Their final four games are all winnable with no ranked teams left. But they really need to get three of them, because it's hard to rationalize giving a 7-9 team an at-large seed.

Monday Update

#24 Indiana 65, Illinois 61
A big missed opportunity for an Illinois team that has a lot of talent but just hasn't put it all together this year. A lot of close losses have really killed their record, and their RPI. They are now 6-6 in the Big 10 with an RPI of 41. I still think they're getting in the Tournament, but they're going to have to sweat it out. They have three fairly easy games in their last four (Northwestern and Michigan at home, Penn State on the road). They really need to win three of four for me to feel confident about keeping them in my bracket. A 9-7 record should assure them the 4th Big 10 spot. I can't see that conference, however much its middle has struggled, only getting three teams. Indiana, of course, will be the third team to get in. They are almost assured, at 7-3 with three of their games remaining against the three worst teams in the conference (Northwestern, Penn State and Minnesota). Hard to see them not getting the 10 wins to assure a bid. Right now their RPI is at a very snug 17 with an 8-6 record against the RPI Top 100. Solid.

West Virginia 70, #2 UCLA 65
A game with implications beyond these two teams. Through the first few months of the season, the Pac-10 seemed like the clear best conference in the land. But with this game following on the tails of the Arizona beat down against UNC, it's hard to make that argument now. I know a lot of people see great things in the SEC, but I think an argument can be made for the ACC as well. Either way, the lowered status for the Pac-10 hurts the bids of borderline teams like Stanford and Washington. Moving onto the two teams that actually played, I don't think this game does massive harm to the Bruins. A solid Pac-10 Championship should be enough for a #1 seed in the Tournament. As for West Virginia, this is a glamor win that really solidifies their bid. If the season ended now there's no question they'd be in. And I don't see any reason to see a dropoff over the last couple of weeks. At this point, the real question is what seed they'll end up getting.

Arizona 77, #15 Oregon 74
With all the Oden-Durant hype (honestly, is it in every college basketball show's contract that they have to discuss which is better atleast once every two weeks?), stars like Chase Budinger are flying too far below the radar. The kid is an absolute stud who can shoot with anybody. And at 6'7", he can get his shot over the top of more defenders than most. At the same time, a team below the radar has been Arizona. Talk about this team being on the Bubble was a joke. As I've already mentioned, even their sixth loss in eight games didn't drop them below an RPI ranking of 8. Their RPI is back up to 6th and they're a remarkable 12-7 against the RPI Top 100 (remarkable in that 19 of their 24 games have been against the Top 100 teams). Not only are they a lock for the Tournament, but they're almost definitely getting a pretty good seed. You can't drop a team with that kind of RPI to a 10+ seed, like some bracket predictions have done. Teams should be encouraged to make schedules like this - no one will drop for just losing a few games against elite opponents.

#17 Oklahoma State 93, Texas Tech 91, 2OT
Another tough last-second loss for Tech. They're more than likely still getting a Tournament bid, but they're going to have fight hard for a few more wins. The RPI has dropped well out of the Top 40, with a poor 4-6 record in the Big 12. They're also sitting as the 7th team in the Big 12, a conference that almost definitely won't get 7 teams. They need to find a way to finish ahead of atleast Oklahoma. If the Red Raiders do manage to get a bid, they're a good team to bet on as a first round upsetter, as they're definitely much better than their record. They struggled early under the intense media spotlight around Bob Knight's wins record. Now, they're losing games on last second shots and miracles. There is a lot of senior talent on this team, and Jarrius Jackson needs to lead them down the home stretch.

Missouri State 62, Northern Iowa 58
A bigger game for Northern Iowa than Missouri State. The Bears are sitting pretty with 10 Valley wins and an RPI of 32. At this point, the only way they miss the Tournament is if they really collapse down the stretch. As for Northern Iowa, not only have they fallen out of every bracket prediction I've seen, but they're almost falling off the bubble altogether. They're 7-8 in conference with an RPI of 88. They get a good opportunity to knock off Nevada. Without that win they pretty much have to win out or pack their bags for the NIT.

Maryland 72, #16 Duke 60
A huge early run by the Terps put this game almost out of reach, and a good closing by Duke wasn't enough. There's no doubt that Duke is starving for an offensive leader right now, because they have too many good players and too good of a coach to struggle like this. I wouldn't go so far as to say that this team is on the bubble, but honestly when was the last time this team's Tournament resume was even still in doubt in mid-Februrary? Let's remember, of course, that they have faced a very tough resume. Their RPI is still in the Top 20, which is a guaranteed bid for any BCS-conference team (and a near-guarantee for any mid-major as well). As for Maryland, this is a massive resume-building win. At 4-6 in the ACC they can still salvage a decent conference record. And their RPI is a solid 34. The biggest problem is that they're currently sitting 8th in the ACC. That will improve, of course, if they can finish 4-2 to bring their record up to the 8-8 they probably need to get in. A huge game will be against Florida State next week. If Maryland wants to get in the Tournament, they might need to knock the Seminoles out. They still have to face UNC and Duke at Cameron Indoor, which means they probably will need to earn their bid against FSU, Clemson, and NC State twice. Maryland is the prototypical bubble team, and they're going ot need the prototypical bubble victories. Should be fun to watch.

Louisville 66, #5 Pittsburgh 53
A massive win for Rick Pitino's squad. It's their first noteworthy road victory, and the kind of game you can really point to on Selection Sunday as a reason to put a team in. They've been able to get their share of three-pointers all year, but the defense really stepped up in this one. Pitt was really devastated with Aaron Gray in foul-trouble. They already lack an elite dribble-driving scorer without Carl Krauser and mostly rely on kick-outs from Gray to three-point shooters like Ronald Ramon. Without running the offense through Gray they really struggle to open up those shots. Back to Louisville's resume, this win moves their RPI from 73rd up to 43rd. They're also sitting pretty at 8-4 in the Big East, with a 10-6 record looking almost definite. And with this win, a 10-6 record should be a near-lock for the Tournament. They're definitely moving back into the BP65 on Thursday morning.

W-4 BP65

Starting with the one-month-to-go point until Selection Sunday (which is now) the BP65 updates will start coming twice a week. So, Sunday morning and Thursday morning. That means this only has to hold you for four days:


1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS A&M (BIG 12)
2. Kansas

3. Oregon
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Arizona
3. Texas

4. Washington State
4. Georgetown
4. Kentucky
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)

5. Oklahoma State
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
5. Duke

6. Indiana
6. Marquette
6. Alabama
6. USC

7. Boston College
7. Creighton
7. West Virginia
7. Tennessee

8. Clemson
8. Missouri State
8. BUTLER (HORIZON)
8. Villanova

9. Florida State
9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. BYU
9. Virginia Tech

10. Virginia
10. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
10. Kansas State
10. Stanford

11. VCU (COLONIAL)
11. Illinois
11. Arkansas
11. Notre Dame

12. Texas Tech
12. Michigan State
12. UNLV
12. Wichita State

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
16. AUSTIN PEAY (OHIO VALLEY)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)

And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Maryland
Louisville
Syracuse
Bradley
Georgia
Mississippi
Vanderbilt

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Providence
Michigan
Purdue
Oklahoma
Old Dominion
Northern Iowa
California

Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Dayton
Massachusetts
Georgia Tech
Depaul
UConn
Iowa
Drexel
Hofstra
San Diego State
Washington
LSU
Mississippi State
New Mexico State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
George Washington
NC State
Missouri
Houston
Indiana State
Auburn
Davidson
Santa Clara
Utah State

Another Mid-Week Update

As usual, a focus on games with bubble implications (so no UNC/Duke analysis today... sorry). Here goes:

UConn 67, Syracuse 60
Win number 500 for Jim Calhoun at Connecticut keeps the Huskies hopeful for this year. They are certainly far from earning an at-large bid, but seeing as how they were worried about making the Big East Tournament last week - just the possibility of qualifying for the real Tournament has to feel good. The RPI is still 83 (they need to get it under 65 to even be considered on Selection Sunday), and that 0-5 record against the RPI Top 50 is a glaring problem. But they have won two straight in conference to move to 4-6, without a single ranked team left to play. Not only that, but they have the perfect games for a team trying to build an RPI - good teams with good RPIs, but not good enough that they can't be beat. They get a mediocre Georgia Tech team on the road (RPI of 57). And the best of all is a home match against Villanova, a team far overranked at 18th in the RPI. I'd say that UConn really needs to win five of their last seven games to have a shot, but it's not totally unreasonable. As for the Orange, this loss drops them to 5-5 in the Big East. With an RPI that has dropped outside the Top 60, and a 5-7 record against the RPI Top 50, they definitely need a big improvement to have an at-large bid. It's pretty amazing how few bids the Big East might get this year after such a successful 2005-06 season.

#7 Texas A&M 100, #25 Texas 82
I know, this game has nothing to do with the bubble. Texas A&M is already a lock for the Tournament, and Texas will be soon enough. My comments on this game have to do with Kevin Durant, a player who has gone from unknown to overhyped in about three months. I was one of the earliest people on the Durant bandwagon, immortalizing him here as early as November 13th. The kid is an absolutely amazing talent. He's been compared to Kevin Garnett, but I see him more as a tall Tracy McGrady. Garnett is a ferocious defender and rebounder, which Durant is not. But Durant is a much smoother offensive player, and has the scoring ability that reminds me more of T-Mac. Regardless, he's the Freshman of the Year, and I would be absolutely fine with him going first in the draft. That being said, it's a lot like an 18 year old Lebron James or a rookie Michael Jordan - you can see the great talent and potential, but they're not yet the complete player and floor leader. That's why, to me, Durant should not be a favorite to win National Player of the Year. And this game is the perfect example. He put up 28 points and 15 boards, which is basically his average during the Big 12 season - pretty remarkable. But what I noted more was the way he seemed to disappear from the floor when A&M went on a run in the second half. With a little over 14 minutes remaining, Durant already had 24 points and Texas held a one-point lead. Over the rest of the game not only did A&M go on a 43-24 run, but they did it while Durant went 1-for-6 from the field. That's unacceptable for a floor leader. Compare that to the senior leadership of Alando Tucker, a player far more deserving of the Player of the Year award. Unlike Durant, he has shined brightest when his team has needed him most. His highest scoring performance came against the highest ranked opponent he played all year - 32 points against Pitt. Second most were 29 on the road against a tough Georgia team, followed by 28 points on the road at Marquette (a top ranked team at the time). Meanwhile, he hasn't inflated his stats against bad teams, averaging only 14 points per game against Wisconsin-Green Bay, Southern, Florida International, Pacific and Gardner Webb. And going beyond that, Tucker has always come up with the big shots when his team has needed points most. I can't see how a serious analyst of the game could see Durant as a better Player of the Year candidate than Tucker. I'd draft Durant earlier than Tucker in the draft, for sure. But right now, for this year, I'd rather have Tucker on my team.

Georgia Tech 74, North Carolina State 65
Something of an elimination game for these two teams, neither of which had a real shot at the Tournament before this game anyway. With this, NC State is basically done. They now have six conference losses and an RPI out of the Top 100. With an RPI of 55, Tech's looking a lot better despite also having six conference losses. Of course, that 0-6 road record means that they're due for another conference loss or two. I really don't think either of these two teams will be seriously considered.

Virginia 69, Maryland 65
An important balance-of-power game in the ACC. This young Cavaliers team has really come on strong at the right time, and is amazingly still tied for first in the conference. Eight conference wins, along with four wins over ranked teams - including Duke and Arizona - has Virginia sitting pretty. With an RPI inside the Top 30, this really feels like a Tournament team right now. As for Maryland, they're the epitome of a bubble team. A nice 16-6 record overall, but an awful 3-6 in conference. An RPI of 36, but a mediocre 3-5 against the RPI Top 50 with a below-.500 road record overall. They've had the tough schedule and some good wins, but they really need to go 9-7 in the ACC to feel good for a bid. At 3-6 now, that's a long road to go. This was the type of loss that they really can't afford anymore.

San Diego State 62, #13 Air Force 41
A win that San Diego State desperately needed. They're still on the outside looking in, but with an RPI inside the Top 60 with their first win over a ranked team (after previously going 0-5 against the RPI Top 50) they're still alive. The biggest beneficiaries of this loss, however, might be Brigham Young and UNLV, the two teams dueling with Air Force for the Mountain West title. I had been doubting whether the Selection Committee would take three teams from the Mountain West, but if these three teams end up tied or within a game of each other and with losses against each other (Air Force has already lost to BYU, and has to head to Las Vegas in two weeks), the Committee might be forced to take all three. BYU, especially, benefits as they now move alone into first place in the conference at 8-2 (Air Force and UNLV wait back at 7-3). BYU has one more game at Air Force, but even a loss there parlayed with an Air Force loss at UNLV would likely mean a BYU regular season title. That would lock up a bid for the Cougars without a doubt.

#23 Georgetown 73, Louisville 65
A problematic loss for the Cardinals. Certainly, it's never a debacle to lose to a ranked team, but Louisville has a particular problem. They don't really have any marquee wins, they aren't going to make the Tournament because of any one game that sticks out. If they're getting in, it's going to be because of their good overall record. Their Big East record has dropped to a not-so-great 6-4, and their overall record of 16-8 isn't going to blow anyone away either. Not to mention that their RPI has now dropped out of the Top 70. Their easy out-of-conference schedule has really killed them. At this point, I don't think a 9-7 Big East record will cut it. They really need to go 10-6 (simply because I have a hard time seeing the Committee denying a 10-6 Big East team). Breaking it down, they have three easy wins (South Florida, St. John's and Seton Hall at home). The Cardinals have struggled against top opponents this year, but their one skill has been taking care of business against lesser opponents. They also have two tough road games, at Pitt and Marquette. After that, they have UConn on the road. If we take my theory that a 10-6 record will get them in and a 9-7 record will not, then losses at Pitt and Marquette will make the UConn game a must-win. Remember, a possibly desperate Huskies team will not be an easy beat on the road. If nothing else, Louisville needs a win at Pitt or Marquette just for that marquee win. Right now, their best win is over Providence (RPI of 48). That's pretty weak.

Clemson 71, Florida State 58
An important win for a Clemson team that had been falling into a tailspin. This win pushes them back up to .500 in the ACC, and to 19-5 overall. The RPI of 21 and the 9-5 record against the RPI Top 100 are both excellent. This team is a lock at 9-7 in the ACC. At 8-8 they will be a tough sell. It will depend on their final RPI and their performance in the ACC Tournament. As for the Seminoles, they're perplexing. The 5-5 ACC record won't blow anyone away, or their 3-6 road record or 5-6 record against the RPI Top 50. But they have some huge wins and have survived a brutal schedule that has their RPI safely inside the Top 25. In a lot of ways they're very similar to Clemson, despite the fact that the two have taken very different paths to this point. Like Clemson, I'd say that a 9-7 conference record gets them in automatically. An 8-8 record might not do it, although they probably will garner some sympathy after being one of the first teams out last year.

Purdue 62, Michigan State 38
A horrible game for a Spartans team that hasn't wrapped up a Tournament bid yet. It goes to show how valuable Drew Neitzel has been, that State can barely score at all when he's off (2-of-11 from the field). Purdue probably won't make the Tournament, but this season has to be considered a success. They're relevant in the Big 10 again, and they're improving by the week. Michigan State, meanwhile, has dropped their RPI out of the Top 40. Their 4-6 record in a mediocre Big 10 isn't too impressive either. Similarly, that 3-6 road record and 1-6 record against the RPI Top 50 looks awful. They can really use a win in one of their two games against Wisconsin. They need a defining win.

Drake 67, Northern Iowa 59
Another devastating win for a Northern Iowa team in a real tailspin. They've now dropped five of their last six games, most of them against the lower half of the Missouri Valley. After competing for the Valley lead for most of the season, they are now 7-7 and tied with Wichita State and Bradley for fourth in the conference. The way I see it, Creighton, Southern Illinois and Missouri State are safely on their way to the Tournament. The Valley should get a fourth team, but probably not a fifth. Which means that this duel between Northern Iowa, the Shockers and Bradley is vital for survival. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they've been the worst of the bunch in recent games. This loss drops their RPI from 66th out of the Top 80, well below both Bradley and Wichita State. They need three of their last four conference games or a win at Nevada in two weeks or else they can forget about a Tournament bid. Big game for them Saturday against Missouri State.

It Ain't Easy at the Top

A lot of elite teams went down this weekend, several to marginal bubble teams making one last run at an at-large bid. Let's get it started:

North Carolina State 83, #3 North Carolina 79
The epitome of what I'm talking about. Another hiccup for North Carolina, but no real reason for the Tar Heels to panic. They're only one of three two-loss teams in the ACC, but i don't think anyone considers Boston College or Virginia a serious threat to the regular season crown. UNC is without a doubt the best team in the conference. And on the plus side, Duke fell as well, so it's not like the Blue Devils have a real shot at the title, even if they win out. As for the Wolfpack, this keeps the fans hopeful for an at-large birth, but I wouldn't give them too much of a chance. Their 3-5 conference record isn't horrible, but they're 2-7 against the RPI Top 50, with an RPI of 105. That's not even close to a bid.

Boston College 80, #18 Virginia Tech 59
Clearly there is life after Sean Williams. After a few tough games they're back with a vengeance, and are in a great position for the second half of their conference season. At 7-2 in the ACC they have a good shot to finish in the top three in the conference, which will assure them a good seed. And speaking of teams that don't deserve a top seed, I hope I'm not the only one surprised at Tech coming back to Earth. Everyone jumped on the bandwagon after those two huge upsets, but this team just isn't that great. They still will probably make the Tournament, but don't expect them to seriously contend for the ACC title. They still have an RPI of 33, and remain fourth in the ACC at 6-3. They have enough winnable games to get the 9-7 record they probably need to get in the Tournament. A huge test will be the home-and-home with Virginia, another bubble team and their big rival. Both those teams could see themselves fall out of the Tournament if swept. Should be some good ball.

Georgia Tech 80, #21 Clemson 62
Just like NC State, this win keeps Tech's season alive. After a good start to the year, the Yellow Jackets had really stumbled with four straight losses that dropped them to 2-6 in the ACC and out of everyone's bracket. 3-6 isn't all too impressive either, but atleast it keeps them in contention. They have a surprisingly good RPI of 61 with wins over Duke and Memphis, in addition to this one. They have the resume wins, but just need to stop blowing the easy games. Speaking of a team with big wins and some blown easy games, what has happened to Clemson? Five losses in their last six games, it's like they forget how to win. Without a doubt they've played good teams - their other four losses were against Duke, Maryland, North Carolina and Virginia. But they're now 4-5 in the ACC with an RPI that has dropped out of the Top 20. Of course, if the season ended now they'd be in the Tourney. But if they finish 8-8 in the ACC, will the Selection Committee be willing to put them in? Tough question. Clemson needs to win five of their last seven conference games to put that issue to bed.

#8 Texas A&M 69, #6 Kansas 66
A gigantic win for a school without much history of basketball success. This team really needs big nights from Acie Law IV to win big games, and they've been getting those a lot this year. In addition, due to the unbalanced schedule, this is the only meeting between these two teams this year. The key will be the two games against Texas, starting with a huge one tonight. They can take one more loss and still win the Big 12 title, but a Texas sweep will do them in. A Big 12 title should give them a #2 seed, a remarkable achievement for Billy Gillespie.

Kansas State 73, #23 Texas 72
A huge win for Bob Huggins that validates the run that this team has been on lately. That's now seven straight wins, moving them to an impressive 17-6 and 6-2 in the Big 12. An RPI of 39 and a decent 6-6 vs. the RPI Top 100 has them in a spot where, if the season ended now, they'd almost definitely be in the Big Dance. Do they have the talent to keep this up? Maybe not. They still have a home-and-home with kansas, and another game at Okie State. I see a final record around 10-6, which will be enough. As for Texas, another huge day out of Kevin Durant, but he needs more support from his teammates if Texas is going to be a real elite team. Getting 32 points is great, but it means more when it's done through the flow of the offense, and not because the team just watches him do his thing.

Brigham Young 90, #25 UNLV 63
I'm not too surprised BYU knocked off the Rebs, but rather the gigantic margin of victory. This game was never close. They are now looking pretty good for March, with an RPI inside the Top 30. More importantly, this moves them ahead of UNLV in the standings. It's not that likely that the Selection Committee wants to give the Mountain West three bids, so it's imperative for these two teams to grab second place from the other. In fact, BYU can still think about winning the conference outright. They already beat Air Force at home, and the sweep would probably do it. As for UNLV, they continue to have a great RPI (11), but they are far from a sure thing. They are only 6-3 in the conference, so can probably only lose two more games. A win over Air Force in a few weeks would probably be enough to get them in, though.

Villanova 57, Louisville 53
This game was much more important for Nova than Louisville. The Cardinals are still in good shape in the Big East, but a loss here would have dropped Nova to 3-6 and with a possibility of dropping out of the Big East Tournament, let alone the other Tournament. With their good strength of schedule, and several good resume wins, they should have enough to get in with a 9-7 record. Their schedule gets easier, but not that much easier. It won't be that trivial to finish 5-2. Louisville, meanwhile, remains at 6-3 and in contention for one of the four byes in the first round of the Big East Tourney. In a lot of ways, they're the anti-Virginia Tech, with no big wins (an awful 0-5 versus the RPI Top 50) but without a lot of bad losses. Their RPI remains weak (62nd), but that should improve due to an increasing schedule alone. Besides, they still have South Florida, St. John's and Seton Hall at home. One more win brings them to 10-6, and it's hard to see the Big East getting denied a 10-6 team.

#22 Arizona 84, Washington 54
I don't know how many people noticed this, but entering this game the Wildcats had lost six of their last eight games and still had an RPI of 8th in the country. That has to be unprecedented. They've had a ridiculously tough schedule, so losing some games shouldn't be held against them. It's ridiculous that some people have dropped Zona to a ten seed, or worse. No way does this team get anything worse than a six seed. If they can finish strong and get something like 11 wins in the Pac-10, they could get as high as a three seed. They're still in sixth in the conference, but there's a real logjam ahead of them. A few wins and they'll scoot right back up near the top of the conference. As for Washington, they're now 4-7 and 8th in the conference. Add that to a 1-7 road record and an RPI of 75, and this team is pretty much done. Their last gasp will be this week against California, currently holding down 7th in the conference. A loss there will end the season officially.

Southern Illinois 54, Wichita State 46
Another big win over a tough opponent for the Salukis. I know that a lot of analysts still consider Creighton the class of the Valley, but no one has been more consistenly good than SIU. They don't have many marquee wins, but you can't ignore their RPI of 9. The longer they keep winning, the further they'll climb up everyone's bracket. As for the Shockers, another missed opportunity to establish the good conference record they need to stay in the Tournament. Their recent struggles have been compounded by the fact that those wins over LSU and Syracuse aren't looking as hot as they did a couple months ago. The RPI has creeped back up to 54th, and will continue to rise if they can improve their conference record to something over .500, which is what they need to make the Tournament anyway. I can't see a 9-9 team getting out of the Valley. That means the Shockers need four of their last five conference games. The good thing is that three of them are at home, where they've only lost twice this season. And one of their two road games is against Drake, which is very winnable. If they do blow one of those games, however, the season could come down to the season finale at Creighton. That could be a monumental game - for both teams, if Creighton is still in the running for the conference title. The key will be getting the end of their season started on a good note, by taking care of their next two games at home against Illinois State and Indiana State. They have the experience necessary to win the winnable games, with their top seven minuter-grabbers, scorers and rebounders as seniors or juniors.

Florida State 68, #10 Duke 67
A massive win for an FSU team hoping to avoid another #1 seed in the NIT. At 17-6 and 5-4 in the ACC, along with an outstanding RPI of 18th in the country, they have the numbers. But this gives them another marquee win, to prove that the early win over Florida wasn't a fluke. Even better, they are done playing ranked teams, knowing that four wins in their last seven games will get them in the Tournament for sure. As for Duke, this is the first time in years that they've lost this many home games in one season. They're still probably looking at a three seed in the Tourney, maybe a four, but this loss probably ends any hope at the ACC title. It's really possible that both Duke and UNC lost this weekend because they were looking ahead to their big matchup this week in Durham. Add that to the motivation both those teams will have coming off bad losses and we might have an outstanding game. Actually, UNC/Duke is always great basketball. I, for one, can't wait.

W-5 BP65

Without much ado, the new BP65:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. FLORIDA (SEC)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. OHIO ST. (BIG 10)

2. Wisconsin
2. PITTSBURGH (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS A&M (BIG 12)
2. Oregon

3. Kansas
3. Duke
3. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
3. Oklahoma State

4. Arizona
4. AIR FORCE (MWC)
4. Alabama
4. Marquette

5. Texas
5. NEVADA (WAC)
5. Washington State
5. Georgetown

6. USC
6. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (MVC)
6. Kentucky
6. Boston College

7. Tennessee
7. Indiana
7. Creighton
7. Clemson

8. Illinois
8. West Virginia
8. Missouri State
8. BUTLER (HOR)


9. GONZAGA (WCC)
9. Notre Dame
9. Texas Tech
9. Michigan State

10. BYU
10. Virginia Tech
10. Kansas State
10. Florida State

11. Vanderbilt
11. Louisville
11. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
11. VCU (COLONIAL)

12. Arkansas
12. Stanford
12. Wichita State
12. Villanova

13. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
13. APPALACHIAN STATE (SOUTHERN)
13. AKRON (MAC)
13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)

14. MARIST (MAAC)
14. VERMONT (AMERICA EAST)
14. TEXAS A&M-CORPUS CHRISTI (SOUTHLAND)
14. ORAL ROBERTS (MID-CON)

15. PENN (IVY)
15. BUCKNELL (PATRIOT)
15. WEBER STATE (BIG SKY)
15. EAST TENNESSEE STATE (ATLANTIC SUN)

16. DELAWARE ST (MEAC)
16. CAL STATE FULLERTON (BIG WEST)
16. SAMFORD (OHIO VALLEY)
16. JACKSON ST (SWAC)
16. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE (NORTHEAST)


And now the best of the rest, separated into different groups. Keep in mind that within each group, teams are not ranked. Rather, they are just put in conference alphabetical order (ACC teams before Big East teams, etc.):

Teams that might be in some brackets, but just miss the cut:
Maryland
Virginia
Syracuse
Bradley
Northern Iowa
UNLV
California
Georgia
Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Providence
Michigan
Purdue
Old Dominion
Mississippi
Plausible bubble teams, but need a big turnaround:
Dayton
Massachusetts
George Washington
Georgia Tech
Depaul
UConn
Iowa
Oklahoma
Drexel
Hofstra
San Diego State
Washington
LSU
Mississippi State
New Mexico State
Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
NC State
Missouri
George Mason
Houston
UAB
Indiana State
Auburn
Davidson
Santa Clara
Utah State

Heading Into Saturday

Catching up on the bubble-related games from the latter half of the past week:

#20 Alabama 73, LSU 70
As some of us talked about in the comments section earlier this week, this game was a matchup between two talented teams that have struggled mightily lately. Someone had to have a turn-around game, and someone had to fall even deeper. For Bama, this will probably put to bed any talk of this team being on the bubble. They may only be 3-4 in conference, but they have a homegame against South Carolina today that should move them back to .500. More importantly, they are already 16-5 overall, a ranking inside the Top 20, an RPI of 26, and a pretty good record of 6-5 against the RPI Top 100. As for LSU, I don't think anyone knows what is going on with this team. They are now 2-5 in the SEC with an RPI that is an amazing 80. Four straight losses will do that to a computer ranking. With an overall Sagarin rating of 62 (the Sagarin rating is often a more popular guide on Selection Sunday than the RPI) things aren't totally hopeless. Let's also keep in mind that they aren't losing to junky teams. Of their eight losses, the worst has an RPI of 71 (Washington, back in December). That's a pretty amazing stat when you think about it. The schedule remains tough, so if LSU can end on a decent winning streak they will have a good RPI. They are just running out of time to turn it around.

Kansas State 80, Missouri 73
A very important bubble-related game in the Big 12. Missouri needed a win here to remain a legitimate at-large candidate, but now they drop to 2-5 with an RPI of 77. They are now only the 7th or 8th best team in the conference, and you can bet the Big 12 won't get 8 teams. As for Kansas State, they stay in the meaty part of the bubble. Their 5-2 conference and 16-6 overall records are gaudy, but they remain winless against the Top 25. The RPI sits at 46, but their biggest negative is probably that 0-2 record against the RPI Top 50. But atleast they'll get a shot from that marquee win, with two games left against Kansas as well as one against both Texas and Oklahoma State.

Gonzaga 90, Stanford 86
An important win for a Gonzaga team that had really struggled towards the end of their main out-of-conference schedule. They've been running through the WCC, but no one really knows what that really means. This gives them another win against a legitimate BCS-conference team. As for Stanford, this should temper the hype about Stanford after their quick 6-3 start in the Pac-10. Their RPI is still stuck at 40th, and their 14-6 record is especially unimpressive when you consider their easy out-of-conference schedule. Another thing I pointed out earlier this week is that the Cardinal have a very tough stretch coming up. At Cal, at Wazzu and at Washington. That is a rough stretch that could easily drop them to 6-6 with a slew of brutal games still to come, including a payback game at Pauley Pavilion in three weeks. They did what they had to do up to this point, but to consider Stanford anything but a middle-of-the-bubble team is to overrate them.

Virginia 68, #10 Duke 66, OT
Some of my favorite things about the end of the college basketball season are the changes of allegiances of fans rooting for a bubble team. In this case, you had a ton of fans around the country rooting for the hated Dukies to knock Virginia off the bubble, all of whom were crushed by that acrobatic game winner by Sean Singletary. Without a doubt, Virgina has re-affirmed by preseason faith in them and now have their fourth really good win this year (including wins at home over Arizona and Maryland, and on the road at Clemson). The Cavaliers have moved their RPI inside the Top 40, with an incredible 5-2 record against the RPI Top 50. Most importantly, their 6-2 ACC record keeps them in the hunt for big things in conference. North Carolina still shouldn't feel too threatend by anyone in the ACC, but Virginia has as good of a shot as anyone to nab second place. And a second place finish in the ACC would be a guaranteed at-large bid. Best of all, the worst of the ACC schedule is over. They are done with Duke, UNC, Maryland, Boston College and Clemson. They key will probably be the home-and-home series with Virginia Tech, another rival for second place in the conference.