2008-09 Preview: Mid Majors, Part II

Conference USA

Once again, the strangest conference in the nation. This huge differential between Memphis and the rest of the conference is obviously unsustainable - either John Calipari will leave and the his Tigers will drop into mediocrity, or the rest of the conference will start recruiting better talent. As for Memphis, obviously a dream season. They were within about five seconds of winning a National Championship. Only Joey Dorsey and Andre Allen graduate, but that's not what worries Memphis fans the most. Derrick Rose is almost definitely leaving for the NBA, and Robert Dozier and Chris Douglas-Roberts are on the fence. For the sake of this preview, I'm going to assume that CDR goes pro but Dozier sticks around for his senior season. Even with those losses, Memphis will still be easily the most talented team in C-USA. Antonio Anderson will be back, as will Shawn Taggert and a few others. And in a shock to nobody, Calipari brings in two more blue chippers. Both Angel Garcia and Matt Simpkins are among the Top 50 recruits in the nation. The class isn't that highly ranked because they lost Memphis high schooler Elliot Williams to Duke, but they still have a nice duo. A potential starting lineup of Anderson, Willie Kemp, Taggert, Dozier and Garcia would easily be able to out-talent anybody else in the conference. Memphis probably won't get another #1 seed, but they shouldn't fall out of the Top 25 altogether.

Will anybody in C-USA be able to step up and at least make Memphis work a little bit in one of their sixteen conference games? UAB stands out as a team that could be very good next season. They graduate almost nothing, and Mike Davis has put together a very talented squad. The difference between making the Tournament or not could come down to Robert Vaden's ambitions. He has declared for the draft to be given a chance to go to work out for NBA scouts. Hopefully they'll be honest with him and let him know that he has a better chance of going undrafted than being a first rounder, and he'll return for his senior season. For the sake of this preview, I'm going to assume that he'll be back for one more season. If that's the case then they'll return everybody that scored more than five points per game in regular action last season. They came closest to taking out Memphis of any team in the conference last season, and they will probably be their top contender yet again. UAB won't win the conference, but they'll have a great shot at earning an at-large bid or perhaps even shocking Memphis in the C-USA Tournament Finals.

As for the other bubble team in the conference, Houston, things are not as rosy. They lose five players to graduation that averaged 15 minutes per game or more. Tulsa and UTEP should be decent teams again, although I can't see either team being good enough to get on the bubble. Two challengers could be a couple of teams that haven't had much success in recent memory. Southern Miss finished with a very positive 19-14 record, and an RPI just near the Top 100. And they return every single starter, including three double-digit scorers. Another surprising contender could be Marshall. The Thundering Herd do lose two starters to graduation, but they still return a lot of talent while also bringing in the second best recruiting class in the conference.

Once again, Memphis will run away with Conference USA. But the gap should close at least a little bit next year. As I said, it's simply unsustainable for one team to be so much better than the rest of its conference for so long. C-USA fans can only hope that the gap is closed by teams like UAB moving up into the Top 25, rather than by Memphis falling back into mediocrity in the next couple of years:

1. Memphis
2. UAB
3. Southern Miss
4. Marshall
5. UTEP
6. Houston
7. Rice

Mid-American Conference

A very disappointing season for the MAC. Another year or two like this and I'll have to drop them into my "small conferences" previews, and move up the Horizon in its place. Kent State obviously had a great season, but there weren't any other teams that were ever serious bubble contenders. If we start with Kent State, we see that it's not out of the question that they could be a Tournament team yet again in 2009. Obviously it's impossible to overestimate the loss of Haminn Quaintance. Nobody in the country filled out every column of a stat sheet like he did. But other than Quaintance, only one other player from their nine man rotation graduates. They had a very balanced team last season, and always had a lot of fresh bodies to throw into the mix. You never know if the loss of Quaintance will mess up their team chemistry, but there's no question that the Golden Flashes will have nearly as much talent on next year's team as they did on this year's team. Another Top 25 RPI? Probably not. But a Top 50 RPI? Very realistic.

As for the rest of the challengers, I'll start with Miami of Ohio. They do lose a starter to graduation, but the fact that their four returning starters will all be seniors next season is a big plus. They will have nice guard play, and will have a very nice team if Tyler Dierkers (6 ppg, 6 rpg) can fill a bit of the space that graduating big man Tim Pollitz (16 ppg, 7 rpg) will leave. They will also receive some big man reinforcements in the form of Julian Mavunga (Scout: 37 C). Next year's team isn't going to have Top 25 talent, but they will be solid and deep. Another team that will have a lot of experienced talent is Ohio, which returns four players that played more than 20 minutes per game as juniors. But if guard play manages to trump all, as is often the case in mid-major conferences, then Western Michigan can't be left out of the equation. They will have a slew of good guards, highlighted by rising-junior David Kool (16 ppg, 2 apg).

The MAC will probably be slightly improved, but still another one-bid conference next season. Here are the teams that should be in contention:

1. Kent State
2. Miami (OH)
3. Western Michigan
4. Ohio
5. Central Michigan
6. Akron

Missouri Valley Conference

By Missouri Valley standards, definitely a down season. Drake obviously had a magical season, but the traditional conference powers were all down. While it was a one-bid league for the first time in a few years, we can't forget that there were a few other good teams. Illinois State, SIU and Creighton were all bubble teams. In fact, I thought Illinois State should have been in the Tournament over Baylor, and they were probably the first team left out.

The first question to ask is whether Drake can repeat its remarkable season. Unfortunately, the answer is that they probably can't. They were not a supremely talented team and, rather, just had a great mix of players and team chemistry. Everybody and everything just fit perfectly together, and there's no way that they can repeat that again. Adam Emmenecker isn't the only player to graduate - Klayton Korver and Leonard Houston will as well. Still, they're not going to fall off the face of the planet. Jonathan Cox (12 ppg, 9 rpg, 44% 3-point shooting) is a star player, while Josh Young (16 ppg, 43% 3-point shooting) is a solid starter in his own right. I don't think anybody sees Drake repeating with another conference crown, but they'll still be a good team. I wouldn't be surprised to see them on the bubble in late February.

Southern Illinois has been the most successful Valley team for the past few seasons, even with a down season in 2007-08. This past season and this coming season will represent something of a changing of the guard as the stars of their most successful teams graduate, while the recruiting classes that were the pay-off for their successes start to come in. Randal Falker is probably the most recognizable SIU player, and he will graduate this year. Matt Shaw and Tyrone Green are also gone. The rest of the team returns, however, including star point guard Bryan Mullins (11 ppg, 5 apg, 2 spg). The Salukis also bring in what is unquestionably the top recruiting class in the Valley. The featured recruits include Anthony Booker (Rivals: 29, Scout: 16 PF), Kevin Dillard (Rivals: 135, Scout: 20 PF) and Torres Roundtree (Scout: 35 SG). Without a doubt, SIU will continue to have its patented defense, and these recruits have the ability to take their offense to a new level.

Like SIU, Creighton is in a rebuilding mode as well. The majority of their regular rotation in 2007-08 was made up of freshmen and sophomores, none being as successful as rising-sophomore P'Allen Stinnett (13 ppg, 45% shooting). If he sticks around for all four years, he has a great shot to win a Valley Player of the Year Award at some point. Illinois State's very positive season was overshadowed by Drake, but it can't be understated how far they improved as well. Unfortunately, this probably represents a high tide for the program, at least in the short term. They will be decimated by graduations and will take a step back in 2008-09.

One team to look out for will be Bradley, which should be improved next season. They lose less minutes and points to graduation than any of the teams ahead of them in the standings. A key for them will likely be whether rising-sophomore Sam Maniscalco (8 ppg, 3 apg) can make the leap and become an elite point guard. The defenses are so tough in the Valley that a capable ball handler is extremely important. One final team to discuss is Wichita State. You never know how much their epic collapse in 2006-07 affected their psychology, but that whole mess should be out of their blood system by next season. P.J. Couisnard graduates, and he was probably the face of the Shockers. But it seemed like he never really reached his potential - he was obviously a very good player, but earlier in his career it seemed like he could have been more. Other than Couisnard, the Shockers return most everybody. And they have a nice deep recruiting class - probably the second best in the conference after SIU. I doubt they'll finish in the top two or three in the conference, but they should finish higher in the standings next season. As for the teams that will finish at the very top, here's how I see it:

1. Southern Illinois
2. Bradley
3. Creighton
4. Drake
5. Northern Iowa
6. Wichita State