2008-09 Preview: Small Conferences, Part IV

America East Conference

Another down year for the America East conference. The mediocrity did allow for a good story, as Maryland-Baltimore County earned its first ever trip to the Tournament. Will they follow up their great success with a repeat? Doubtful. They lose three double-digit scorers to graduation, and they will be playing with a lot more pressure as the defending conference champion. I just can't see them winning another title next season. I also don't see Albany getting their crown back, as they lose the rest of the stars from their '07 Tournament team.

One young team that I see improving is Boston University. The Terriers have had very little to brag about in recent years, but they have a nice crop of youngsters that should carry them into the top half of the conference next season. You also can't count out a Vermont team powered by rising-senior Mike Trimboli (18 ppg, 5 apg, 86% FT shooting).

But with the traditional America East powers in a down period, things opened up for UMBC this past year and will be wide-open yet again next season. Which is fertile ground for a rapidly improving program like Hartford. Rising-junior Joe Zeglinski is a very good shooter (16 ppg, 41% 3-point shooting). And rising-senior Warren McLendon (12 ppg, 5 rpg, 2 bpg) qualifies as an inside force as far as the America East goes. I think this will be a conference with a lot of parity next season, and any one of about five teams will be in the mix. But I'm going with the upset by picking Hartford.

Atlantic Sun Conference

Belmont has dominated the Atlantic Sun for the past few years and will be a contender again next season. They lose leading scorer Justin Hare to graduation, but return the rest of their regular rotation players. And it's not like the offensive revolved around Hare anyway, as they return four other players that averaged 8.8 points per game or more last season. They will continue to be a pretty small team, but it's not like they'll face a lot of elite post players in the Atlantic Sun.

A team to look out for will be East Tennessee State. Some of you probably remember their very exciting team from the 2003-04 season, and next year's senior class was the recruiting group that came out of that season. They will have a nice set of experienced players, and will definitely be in the mix when the calendar turns back to March yet again. Gardner Webb will also be a challenger with four starters returning, but I just don't see how they'll replace their loss of Thomas Sanders (18 ppg, 11 rpg).

Jacksonville fans are also excited about their returning lineup, which will have a slew of good sophomores and juniors. They will definitely challenge for the Atlantic Sun title, but I think their inexperience will do them in. They have a potential to be like a Cleveland State last season, that goes on a little run and then feels the pressure and falls back. If they can experience another pennant race, however, they could be in good position for a Tournament run in 2010.

A sleeper to me is Stetson, a team that returns every player that got more than 15 minutes per game last season. They will have a gaggle of athletic guards and swingmen, and could have a nice inside player in rising-senior Tim Lang (4 ppg and 3 rpg in only 15 minutes per game). They'll have their hands full with Jacksonville and Belmont, but for now I'm picking Stetson to take the Atlantic Sun.

Big Sky Conference

A bit of a down year for the Big Sky. Portland State dominated the conference all year and swept through the conference tournament, only to earn a #16 seed? Definitely a bit of disrespect (I thought they deserved a #15 seed), but it spoke to the weakness of a conference that has had good teams in the very recent past. Will the Vikings gets a chance to improve on that seed? It's very possible. They lose two starters to graduation, but the rest of their regular rotation returns. The big gap to fill will be 6'11" senior Scott Morrison. The only other player with more than four rebounds per game was a guard, Deonte Huff, who is the other graduating starter. So Portland State is going to have a real hole on the inside that one of the young players off the bench will have to fill. The biggest body returning will be rising-junior Alex Tiefenthaler, but he only got one start and only played 11 minutes per game.

Northern Arizona should contend yet again, but will also have a big hole to fill inside with the graduation of Kyle Landry (18 ppg, 8 rpg). I wouldn't count out Weber State either, but the most likely team to take back the conference has got to be Montana. They also have to deal with the graduation of a starting big man, but they do return a potential star in 6'9" Jordan Hasquet (14 ppg, 7 rpg). The key to me will be rising-junior Ryan Staudacher, who led the team in minutes last year but didn't put up a lot of stats. He did shoot 45% from behind the arc, which could make him a great complement for Hasquet. This won't be a repeat of the 2005-06 Montana tea that nearly earned a trip to the Sweet 16, but I think they'll be good enough to take a weakened Big Sky. Montana is the pick.

Big South Conference

Absolutely no team has dominated a conference like Winthrop has over the past few years. They are the only team in the entire nation that has won four straight conference tournament titles. So will they make it five? Well, a major problem will be graduations. The trio that led this year's team was Chris Gaynor, Michael Jenkins and Taj McCullough. All three graduate. Of the young guards that return, Byron Faison is going to have to step up to try to replace some of the graduates. And as Winthrop's offense is so dependent on the three-pointer, a key player in that regard will be rising-sophomore Justin Burton. The Eagles also have two very good recruits in Andre Jones and Gideon Gamble. They'll still be a good team, but not nearly as good as the past two years.

Which brings us to one of the oddest players to come through college basketball in years: Kenny George. While everyone probably knows him from his posterizing at the hands of Tyler Hansbrough, I'm actually very impressed in the way that he has a normal, athletic body. Super-tall baskeball players like Manute Bol and Gheorghe Muresan tend to be gawky and misshapen. But George has the body of a regular athlete - if you look at a picture of him without anybody or anything else in focus, he seems normal-sized. It's only when he has other players around him that you sense how tall he is. The only similar player I can think of is actually Mark Eaton, who was slightly more athletic but also three inches smaller.

Anyway, the point is that he has the potential to really dominate this conference if he can play more. He has improved his conditioning rapidly through his two seasons in the Big South. If he can play 30 minutes per game next season, UNC-Asheville might become the clear favorite to end Winthrop's reign.

Another good young team is High Point, which now has had three consecutive good recruiting classes. They could be a real contender in 2009-10, but I don't think they will have enough to finish any higher than third place again in 2008-09. To me, Winthrop just loses way too much next season, and I'm taking UNC-Asheville to win the Big South.