2008-09 Preview: Small Conferences, Part II

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

The MEAC had a mediocre season last season, but I think the bottom of the pack should improve in quality next season. As you can see in the chart above, the bottom of this conference was very young. With so many players back, a lot of the lower-tier teams will be improved. But there was such a large talent differential that not many of them will actually be good enough to make a run at the conference title.

Delaware State has a nice crop of youngsters, although probably not enough experience to actually take the crown. Hampton features a very nice class of rising-juniors - Michael Freeman, Vincent Simpson and Theo Smalling all played 24 minutes per game or more this past season. They might be the favorites in 2009-10, when those three are all seniors.

But nobody in this conference will be able to match Morgan State next season. They return their top six scorers and minute earners, five of whom will be seniors. They were already the best team in the MEAC this past season, and they return by far the most talent. Add that to the bitter taste of the upset to Coppin State in the MEAC Tournament, and Morgan State should run away with this conference next season.

Northeast Conference

The NEC suffered a down year in 2007-08, and I don't see too much hope for next year to be much better. Robert Morris led the pack this past season, but they have some heavy graduation losses. In 2008-09 they will be without two of their three top scorers, and their two top rebounders. Wagner has been a dominant team in recent years, but they're hit even harder by graduation. The toughest loss will be Durell Vinson (14 ppg, 12 rpg).

Further down in the pack we see an improving Quinnipiac program. They do suffer from graduation as well, losing two starters. But other than those two players, they got most of their production from sophomores and freshmen. So they should be well positioned to make a title run in 2009-10.

But the top contender will actually be Mount St. Mary's, a team that probably took the conference title a season too early. They have a slew of nice scoring guards and small forwards. The only question mark is on the inside, but none of the other programs in the NEC have great inside presences anyway. In the end, I think next season will end up being between Wagner and Mount St. Mary's, and it's pretty much a coin flip. But for the sake of these conference previews, I've got to pick one, and I'm going with Mount St. Mary's in a repeat.

Ohio Valley Conference

Austin Peay absolutely dominated this conference, and deserved a better shot in the Tournament than being stuck as a #15 seed against Tennessee. The Governors used the previous season's conference tournament loss to Eastern Kentucky as motivation for their dominant 2007-08 season. Can they use the disrespect from the Selection Committee to power an even better 2008-09 season? Unfortunately, I don't think so. They lose three double-digit scorers to graduation, and will be much thinner than they were last season. Their competition will also be improved.

Murray State has historically been a dominant team in the Ohio Valley, and they will be improved next season. Almost their entire squad returns, and they will have strength at all five positions. The key will probably be rising-senior Kevin Thomas (7 ppg, 5 apg), who will have to be a dominant point guard next season. He absolutely has the potential to lead the Racers to another conference crown.

Eastern Kentucky did a good job of rebuilding this season, but they're probably another season away from seriously competing for a return trip to the Tournament. To me, the most likely contender to Austin Peay and Murray State is Tennessee-Martin. Rising-senior Lester Hudson was the OVC player of the year this past season, and will be the heavy favorite to win it again next season if he decides to play. He was fourth in the nation in scoring last season(25.7 per game) and is also the only player in Division I history (to the best of my knowledge) to record a quadruple-double. The only question mark is whether he'll stick around for his final year, or if he'll jump to the NBA. I've read that he is seriously considering going to the NBA, but that he has not yet hired an agent. If he sticks around for his final year, UTM will be a serious conference contender. If not, they won't. Either way, however, I still think Murray State should be the favorite to take the crown.

Patriot League

American University pretty much came out of nowhere to take the Patriot League this past season. They proved a tough team with a Top 100 RPI, and by putting up quite a fight in the first round of the Tournament against Tennessee. The thing is, they could be even better next season. They do lose one of their starters to graduation, but they return their four leading scorers. More impressively, seven of their eight leading scorers this past season were juniors. That means that this team is going to have seven seniors in the regular rotation next season. That type of experience will be tough to beat.

A young team that I like is Lehigh, which has a very nice set of young players. Their duo of rising-juniors Marquis Hall (14 ppg, 4 apg, 2 spg) and Zahir Carrington (13 ppg, 4 rpg, 1 bpg) could lead the Mountain Hawks to a Patriot League title someday. But I think their best shot will be in 2010 - they just don't have the overall talent and experience quite yet.

Bucknell also had an outstanding group of freshmen and sophomores this past season. They will be a contender in 2009 but, like Lehigh, I think they'll be a more formidable team in 2010 when their squad is more seasoned. American's top challenger in 2009 will probably be Holy Cross, a team which was better than its record this past season. They lose leading scorer Tim Clifford to graduation, but Ralph Willard's system is about balanced scoring anyway. If anybody takes out American, I think Holy Cross has the best shot. But in the end, I don't think any team will be good enough to prevent an American University repeat title.