2008-09 Preview: Pac 10

Pacific 10 Conference

Let's start with UCLA, a school that has an incredibly successful (and frustrating) last three years. Three consecutive Final Fours, but zero titles. The likelihood of the Bruins making a fourth straight trip to the National Semifinals will depend on the NBA draft, because Lorenzo Mata-Real is the only real loss to graduation. At the time of this posting, UCLA has no less than four players considering the NBA. To me, the most likely scenario is that Darren Collison and Kevin Love will go pro, but everybody else will stay. That means they'll still have Russell Westbrook and Josh Shipp capable of creating offense from the perimeter, and Alfred Aboya and Luke Mbah a Moute back as well. A key will likely be James Keefe, a player with NBA potential (he is considering going to pro now, but I think he'll make the smart move and come back for another year), but who was stuck behind Kevin Love this past season. He will be required to play the part of Love on next year's team, and his defense and rebounding will be essential to UCLA's success. As usual, the Bruins bring in a loaded recruiting class, featuring four blue chippers. The headliner is shooting guard Jrue Holiday (Rivals: 3, Scout: 1 SG).

Stanford had a great season in 2007-08, but will undoubtedly be down next season. They not only lose their head coach, but the Lopez twins are heading to the NBA draft. Mitch Johnson and Anthony Goods will continue to provide a solid backcourt, but this team was all about the Lopez twins last season. Another team that will probably take a step back is Washington State, which graduates Derrick Low, Kyle Weaver and Robbie Cowgill. Taylor Rochestie is a good scorer and will return, but it's hard to see how Wazzu will have a decent offense with the rest of the team around him. We know that Tony Bennett can coach, but now we're going to find out how his recruits pan out.

USC is a team that could be really good next season. OJ Mayo will obviously be going pro, but there's a good chance that everybody else will be back. They could have a starting lineup of Davon Jefferson, Taj Gibson, Daniel Hackett, Dwight Lewis and Angelo Johnson. That could be the most talented starting five in the whole conference. Throw in Demar DeRozen, a consensus top three national recruit, and USC should be a near-lock for the Top 25. Another team that should be improved is Arizona State, a team that will likely have every single regular rotation player back. James Harden and Ty Abbott will make a great back court, and the only question mark will be on the inside. Eric Boateng has the ability to bang with the elite big men on other teams, although Arizona State will probably benefit from the fact that a big man won't be as necessary next season as it was this past year. There will be no more Kevin Love & Lopez twins to deal with.

A big question mark next season will be Arizona. The team really collapsed down the stretch as the locker room was torn apart by the coaching struggle. With Lute Olsen back in charge, things should settle down. It's expected that Chase Budinger and Jerryd Bayless will go pro, but Arizona still has a ton of talent left. Jordan Hill, especially, has a real potential to star next season. He is absolutely ferocious inside, and he'll have to be even more dominant if Arizona is going to be a top team in the Pac-10 next season. They'll also benefit from the arrival of Brandon Jennings (Rivals: 8, Scout: 1 PG). Arizona will almost definitely be a Tournament team again, but they could end up being anywhere from Pac-10 champion to a bubble team. Definitely the biggest uncertainty in the conference.

Two final teams that will be rebuilding next season are Washington and Oregon. Both teams will lose a lot through graduation or the NBA, but both also bring in top 25 recruiting classes. With all of the successes of freshmen over the past few years, one good recruiting class can turn any team into an elite challenger, but I don't think either of those two teams will have enough to challenge for a title in this conference. Here's how I see the conference as a whole:

1. UCLA - Just can't bet against this team. I know that they lose a ton to the draft and graduation, but UCLA is just like Duke and Carolina at this point - they never have to rebuild, they always just reload.
2. USC - Definitely have a real shot to steal this conference next season. OJ Mayo got all the press, but he wasn't the best player on last year's team. If everybody stays healthy, this could be a Top Ten team.
3. Arizona State - This program continues to climb through the conference.
4. Arizona - They almost had their Tournament streak snapped this past season. I don't think it will be so close next year.
5. Washington State - Will continue to have great defense. This program got great news when Tony Bennett opted out of jumping to a larger profile school.
6. Oregon - They graduate a lot, but that recruiting class is amazing.
7. Washington - We'll see if Jon Brockman can fulfill his potential and lead his school back to the Tournament.
8. Stanford - Let's be honest, it was all about the Lopez twins last year.
9. California - A team in a lot of flux. Don't count them entirely out, however, if Ryan Anderson can take his game to the next level.
10. Oregon State - They should be a little bit better next year. So they've got that going for them, which is nice.