2008-09 Preview: Small Conferences, Part I

Southern Conference

The first question everybody is going to have with regards to the SoCon will be "Is Stephen Curry coming back?" Those who have read my conference previews from previous seasons know that I often think players head to the NBA too early, and many of them should be sticking it out in college for another year or two. But for the first time I'm going to say that a player is sticking around too long. Curry should go pro now. His stock can't possibly get any higher than it is right now, as he can't possibly have a better Tournament than he just had. If anything, his numbers will go down as the three-point line gets shifted back. Right now he's a Tournament darling, but a few months from now he might be a poor man's JJ Redick.

The point is, Curry insists that he'll be coming back for another season, which makes Davidson the obvious preseason favorite to take the SoCon. Which brings us to the second question that everyone will be asking: "Can Davidson be this good again?" Stephen Curry can't play any better than he already has, and you have to wonder how he'll be without Jason Richards to get him the basketball. The Wildcats have a number of potential starting point guards, but none which got a lot of minutes this past season. Inside, Andrew Lovedale will be extremely important after the graduation of Thomas Sander. Bob McKillop has done a good job at bringing in talent to complement Curry, but it's hard to see how next year's team could possibly be any better than this year's team. Especially with the real possibility of a little Tournament hangover, leading to a couple of bad losses early next season.

Can anybody else in the conference contend? If Curry breaks his wrist, perhaps. The thing is that Davidson's weakness (a lack of size and scoring inside) can't really be exploited by their chief rival, Appalachian State. The Mountaineers lose their own two best big guys to graduation (Donte Minter and Jeremy Clayton combined for 23 points and 14 rebounds last season). Appalachian State probably has the best recruiting class in the conference, and they have the best collection of talent outside of Davidson. So if Curry gets a season ending injury, or gets bit by the NBA bug in the next month or so, Appalachian State becomes a player to steal the conference crown. But barring those unlikely scenarios, it will be another conference title for Davidson.

Southland Conference

The best team in the Southland this past season was Stephen F Austin, a team that simply slipped up in the conference tournament. Will they use that disappointment as inspiration for a dominant performance next year (like Austin Peay did this past season)? I think so. They return almost all of their talent, including their two inside stars Josh Alexander and Matt Kingsley (32 points and 12 rebounds per game). They have a good, growing program that should be a dangerous team to play for a couple of years. If they can avoid the upset bug next year, they could be a dangerous first round opponent as a #12, 13 or 14 seed in the Tournament.

But unlike Davidson in the SoCon, SFA will face a slew of challengers. Lamar was their top contender in regular season play, but wasn't really as good as their conference record. And they lose quite a bit to graduation, so I'd be surprised to see them challenging for a title next year. The same goes for Sam Houston State, which was probably the second best overall team in the Southland, but was senior-heavy.

A sleeper contender for me is Nicholls State, a squad which only had one senior on the roster this past season. They have a history of being a player in the Southland, and they have a very nice crop of youngters, including rising-sophomores Anatoly Bose, Dominic Friend and Kellan Carter. But in the end, I think Stephen F Austin is in a great position to run through this conference. There is simply a talent gap to the rest of the conference.

Southwestern Athletic Conference

I have to admit that I don't understand why this conference has been so atrocious in recent years. You can run the numbers yourself from the chart above to see how bad these teams were in out-of-conference games. They need to try something new to improve the level of coaching and talent in the SWAC, because there's almost no point to paying attention at this point. The best any of these teams can do is to win the conference tournament and win a #16 seed.

Alabama State was the top team in the SWAC this past season, and they return their top scorer (Andrew Hayles had 14.6 per game). A gap will be on the inside, where 2/3 of their frontline graduates. Mississippi Valley State was senior-heavy this past season, but will be even more senior-heavy next year. They don't have a lot of talent, but you don't need a lot of talent to win this conference. The fact that they will have so many experienced players getting heavy playing time can't be a bad thing.

Alabama A&M could be a leading team on the back of star Trant Simpson (15.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, 1.4 spg). But a surprise challenger could be Jackson State, a fairly deep squad that loses only Catraiva Givens to graduation, among players getting significant playing time. They will have a nice and experienced inside-outside combo with Darrion Griffin (14.1 ppg, 2.4 apg) and Grant Maxey (14.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg). In the end, there will be a lot of mediocrity in this conference, and nobody is going to run away from the pack. But somebody has to make the Tournament, and I'm picking Jackson State.

Summit League

The Summit certainly had an interesting season, and not just because it changed names. It seemed due for a down season after losing traditional powerhouse Valparaiso. Instead, it got a very solid season on the back of conference leaders Oral Roberts and IUPUI. And the two Dakota schools both showed that they will be a force to reckon with in the near future (more on that in a second).

Oral Roberts had a heck of a team this past season, but they were very senior heavy. It's hard to see them repeating this success with the graduations of four players that got over 20 minutes per game. IUPUI isn't completely unscathed by graduations, but they do return a solid majority of their scoring. The key for them next year will be the play of their senior backcourt, made up of George Hill and Gary Patterson (a combined 34 points, nine rebounds and seven assists per game).

Oakland and Southern Utah also return a lot of talent and have a good chance of being improved, but the big wild card for me is North Dakota State. Early in the season they seemed like the top team in the Summit, but they had a few too many bad losses as the season went along. It's possible that they didn't have the same sense of urgency that other teams had, due to the fact that they were ineligible for postseason play. Despite just moving to Division I, they have already put together a very solid core of experienced players. Next year's starting lineup could easily have four seniors in it, and will be very energized by their first full season of division I basketball in school history.

All in all, the Summit will be even better next year than they were this past season. Oral Roberts will still be a good team, and IUPUI should be an RPI Top 100 team yet again. But I'm going to take a motivated North Dakota State team to take full advantage of their first chance at the Tournament.

Sun Belt Conference

A great season for a conference that hasn't had a lot of success historically. Two good teams into the Tournament, with one making a Sweet Sixteen run. Even though Western Kentucky seemed like the best overall team in the conference, South Alabama swept their games during the season. It turned out that the outstanding guard play of South Alabama was just too much for Western Kentucky, despite the size advantage of the latter squad. In mid-major conferences it is just a fact that an advantage in guard play supercedes an advantage in inside play.

Western Kentucky will be devastated by graduations, including Courtney Lee (who seems destined for a decent NBA career), Ty Rogers and Tyrone Brazelton. They had talent up and down their bench, but it's just impossible to expect another conference crown for the Hilltoppers. Which brings us to South Alabama, a team that loses two of its outstanding guards to graduation. The Jaguars still return a ton of guard talent, and bring in yet another potential star in LaShun Watson out of Florida.

There was a large gap between the two top teams and the rest of the conference in 2007-08, but I expect that gap to close next year. While South Alabama should still be very good, WKU will take a step back. Meanwhile, other teams in the Sun Belt are due to move up the standings. One that sticks out to me is Middle Tennessee State, which had zero seniors on the roster this past season. I don't think they will have enough to win the conference, but they should be a player. In the end, though, South Alabama's backcourt should be too much for anybody else in this conference.