Bounce Back Game Redux

Miami (Fl) 77, #24 Boston College 71
After Boston College's loss to Harvard, I spoke about the "bounce back game", which is something that a lot of people do understand and believe in. Too often, however, I think too many people view this as an issue for teams that have big losses, and whether they let that disappointment snowball. But really, the fundamental issue is whether a team can get back to basics after any traumatic event, be it a dramatic loss or a dramatic win. Boston College is an example of the latter case, where they broke through with that huge win over North Carolina, but suddenly can't seem to remember how to play basketball. They have now lost two straight games where they were solid favorites, and while I mentioned in the afore-linked article that a win over North Carolina and a loss to Harvard were superior to the converse of those results, it's quite another thing to fall into a big losing streak. Of course, the Eagles are still 13-4 with only one bad loss (Harvard), and that win over North Carolina will stay on the resume all season long. And these two losses will be forgotten if they bounce back with a home victory over Wake Forest on Wednesday night. But they have to stop this losing streak before it gets too large. For Miami, it seems like it's been an eternity since they were a Top 25 team expected to be one of the favorites in the ACC. With this win, Miami moves to 11-3 with a solid 3-3 record against the RPI Top 100. That said, they have a difficult ACC schedule ahead of them, with two games against North Carolina, and with only a road game against Duke. The out-of-conference resume is good enough, and the ACC is good enough, that a 9-7 ACC record should assure Miami of a Tournament bid, and I can certainly see a reasonable path to nine wins for the Canes. If they take care of business in conference play, they'll be in the Tournament.

Indiana State 75, Illinois State 70, OT
As I said after Illinois State lost to Bradley, we all knew that they would lose a game eventually. And so the question was not whether they would lose a game, but how they would respond after that first loss. Well, now the loss streak is at two. And it's one thing to lose to Bradley, a team that is a serious contender in the Missouri Valley. It's quite another to lose to Indiana State, a team that is expected to finish near the bottom of the conference. And this is why I have refused to put Illinois State into the BP65 thus far this season, because we really have no idea how this team will respond to adversity and high expectations. Their next game is a home game, but it's against another good team in Drake. If the Redbirds can right the ship soon and finish with something like a 13-5 record then they'll be fine for a Tournament bid even if they lose in the Missouri Valley tournament. But that's an "if" that nobody can be sure of at this point.

California 88, Washington 85, 3OT
Is it just me or does it feel like we've had an inordinate amount of overtime games for a single day? And honestly, I don't know how Washington blew this game. They were up by five with 30 seconds to go in the second overtime, and blew the lead with a series of inexplicable plays. But when you rely heavily on freshmen and sophomores, these kinds of things sometimes happen. And Cal is in the midst of a very good stretch where they have just been finding ways to win games. They have now won nine straight games, including wins over Utah and Nevada to go along with a 4-0 Pac-10 record. Looking at their remaining schedule, it's hard to see them winning less than ten Pac-10 games, and that will most likely be enough for an at-large bid. So while it's impossible to lock up a Tournament bid this early in the season, Cal is in really good shape. Washington slips to 11-4 (2-1 in Pac-10 play), but I wouldn't read too much into a tough loss against a good opponent. Their out-of-conference performance was not nearly as good as California's, so it's possible that a 10-8 Pac-10 record won't be enough for an at-large bid for Washington. We'll have to see how things play out in other conferences.