Georgetown Is Now A Bubble Team

#8 Marquette 94, #23 Georgetown 82
This is definitely a really demoralizing loss for Georgetown, because it's hard to imagine them playing much better. They shot really well from the field, including 10-for-20 from behind the arc. Their ball control problems sprung up again with 17 turnovers, but they mostly made up for it by forcing nine steals from a normally steady Marquette squad. But in the end, Georgetown just does not have enough depth or enough explosiveness to beat the top teams in this conference. They looked like a Big East contender a month ago after that win at UConn, but everybody else in the conference has improved while the Hoyas have stagnated. They have now fallen to 3-6 in the Big East, with only a 12-8 record overall, including 6-8 against the RPI Top 100. They are tied with Notre Dame for 10th in the Big East standings, and while both teams have lost five straight I do think it's Georgetown that has the better path from here on out. For one thing, Georgetown is still a very good team, and they simply have suffered from a truly brutal schedule. The schedule lightens up, and they will be solid favorites in three of their next four games (Rutgers, Cincy, at Syracuse, at South Florida). I think Georgetown should get back to 9-9 in the Big East, and that probably will be enough for a Tournament bid, but it's not a given. Marquette, on the other hand, is now 8-0 in the Big East with a fairly easy schedule upcoming. The end of their schedule is pretty brutal, but they should still get a chance to win the Big East crown as they play the four other best Big East teams in their final four games (UConn, at Louisville, at Pitt, Syracuse).

Mississippi 67, Mississippi State 63
I'm impressed with how well Ole Miss has hung in there since the loss of leading scorer Chris Warren. It would be easy for a team to fold up the tent and quit after something like that, but Ole Miss is still hanging in the bubble debate with consecutive wins over Kentucky and rival Mississippi State. It's a testament to Andy Kennedy, who I think is a very underrated coach. The RPI is actually 52nd, but that's really deceptive. I've discussed before how teams can get inflated RPIs if they simply avoid scheduling teams outside the RPI Top 250, and Mississippi has played none outside the RPI Top 270. They are 3-4 in the SEC West, and 0-5 against the RPI Top 50. Neither Sagarin or Pomeroy are as fooled by scheduling quirks like that, and both put this team at a more realistic 90th-100th in the country. Still, if they can find a way to work their way to 10-6 or so, they'll be worth discussing as a potential Tournament team in March. For Mississippi State, this is a really tough loss, as they fall out of their tie for first in the SEC West with LSU. They are 4-2 in the SEC, but only 2-4 against the RPI Top 100. It's possible that they were thinking ahead to a key upcoming stretch (at Kentucky, vs Arkansas, vs LSU), but if so they'd better make those games count. If they want to crawl back into the bubble discussion they've got to win at least two of those, especially the game against LSU.

South Carolina 78, Kentucky 77
A clutch shot by Devan Downey sentenced Kentucky to their second straight loss, and further mixed up the SEC East. Originally thought to be a battle between Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee, the SEC East now features a tie for second place between South Carolina and Kentucky. If Tennessee takes out Florida tonight that will turn into a three-way tie for first, with Tennessee only a half game out. It's unlikely that any team from the SEC will score better than a four seed in the Tournament, but I'm sure Kentucky would take that in a second. They've got to right the ship and start winning just to get into the Tournament at all. Their current RPI is actually 67th. For South Carolina, they're making a strong push here for a Tournament bid. They're up to 16-4 overall with a decent 4-3 record against the RPI Top 100. They now have wins over Baylor, Florida and Kentucky, which is pretty respectable for a bubble team. Their remaining schedule is pretty tough as far as SEC schedules go, but if South Carolina can find a way to get to 11-5 they're more than likely going to make the Tournament.