Is Florida The Favorite In The SEC?

Florida 94, Vanderbilt 69
It's certainly a fair question to ask whether Florida is the favorite to take the SEC. It's certainly clear that Kentucky, Florida and Tennessee have broken clear of the pack a bit in the conference, and there is a chance that those will be the only three SEC teams to make the Tournament. I still believe that at least one more will make it (right now I'm projecting LSU to be that fourth team), but it's certainly a real possibility for only three to make it. I spoke here about why this makes seeding in the SEC East so essential. The fact is that there isn't a big difference between these three teams, and getting to avoid one of them in the semifinals will be great. Also remember that there is a substantial difference between second and third place as well, as the top two teams in the SEC East will get a bye to the second round. So each game between those three teams will be essential for placement in the SEC tournament. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, isn't even worried about SEC tournament placement right now. They have slipped to 1-4 in the SEC with an RPI up near 120th. Their at-large chances are pretty much done, and since there isn't a big difference between fourth, fifth or sixth in the SEC East (they're most likely going to finish fifth), it's all about figuring out what it takes to win. They need to find a way to peak at the right time and hope that they can be the 2009 version of the 2008 Georgia team.

Seton Hall 65, Georgetown 60
This game was more important for Georgetown, of course. Seton Hall remains a long shot at-large team, at only 1-6 in the Big East. But this was a horrible game for Georgetown in a lot of respects. First of all, you never want to play a team with its back against the wall that is desperate for a win. Also, Georgetown is unable to take advantage of Seton Hall's weakness, which is depth. Seton Hall has something like six players coming in next year, and until then is dreadfully thin. They basically ran out of fresh players in their most recent game, an overtime loss to Providence. But Georgetown is thin themselves, and were unable to really take advantage of this. But Georgetown has bigger problems, as they need to figure out what type of team they are. A real contender for the Big East title just a few weeks ago, they are now 3-4 with any hopes of a regular season championship dashed. The computer numbers are all still very good, and there is no real risk of actually missing the Tournament, but five losses in seven games would worry any coach, even if it came against an incredibly brutal schedule. This tough stretch actually continues a little while longer before Georgetown gets some cupcakes. They continue on the road for two more, at Cincinnati and Marquette, before heading home for Rutgers. They really can't afford to fall to 3-6, so they've got to win one of those games. Even if they fall to 3-6 they still will most likely get back to 9-9 with their easy remaining schedule, and a 9-9 Georgetown team will make the Tournament due to strong computer numbers and a number of big scalps (Maryland, Memphis, Syracuse and UConn, among others). But their seed will continue to drop until they turn things around.

#7 Michigan State 78, Ohio State 67
Anybody who watched this game saw both the raw talent of this young Ohio State team as well as the incredible experience and savvy of this Michigan State team. The talent of Ohio State was on display as they came out firing on all cylinders against a Michigan State team that was highly motivated after that embarrassing loss to Northwestern. But after the second tv timeout of the second half, Michigan State's experience really started to show. They always seemed to find a good shot, and Ohio State suddenly forgot how to score. Michigan State outscored the Buckeyes 30-17 after that second tv timeout. They have also made it clear that the one loss to Northwestern was a fluke. They are making a great case for a 1 seed, and will most likely get one if they can sweep the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles. Ohio State's youth, on the other hand, might end up playing itself out of the Tournament. They have slipped to 3-4 in the Big Ten, and the RPI has fallen out of the Top 30. They really need to take advantage of their next two games (vs Michigan, at Indiana), because their February schedule is really brutal. They've probably got to get to 10-8 in the Big Ten to make the Tournament, and the most likely path to ten wins involves sweeping those two upcoming contests.