Three More Recaps

#24 Minnesota 59, #20 Illinois 36
Before Saturday's games get started, I want to go through three final games from Thursday evening. Nothing much of anything happened last night, other than Butler avoiding a bad upset at home against Valpo, so these final recaps will get us up to date in time for Saturday's slate. This game here wasn't nearly as ugly as the final score might suggest, although it was pretty ugly. Minnesota plays good pressure defense mostly because they go eleven players deep and Tubby can keep throwing fresh bodies out on the floor, but even the good defense doesn't completely explain how most of the Illinois players couldn't hit an open shot to save their lives. In all they hit 29% from the field, 13% from behind the arc and 57% from the line. They actually did a pretty good job of taking care of the ball (9 turnovers, and 9 assists on their 15 made field goals), but they just could not hit a shot. This bad performance probably ends the Illini's chances of a Big Ten title, as they slip into a tie for fourth at 5-3. But even with this loss, Illinois is looking pretty safe for a Tournament bid. Looking at their remaining schedule, it's hard to see them finishing worse than 11-7, and even 10-8 would almost definitely lock up a Tournament bid. Minnesota, meanwhile, collects what might be their best win of the season, moving to 6-3 in the Big Ten and 18-3 overall. They are 7-3 against the RPI Top 100, and despite a pretty tough schedule the rest of way, should manage to get to 11-7 to lock up an at-large bid for themselves.

#25 Gonzaga 69, #18 Saint Mary's 62
Gonzaga seems to have gotten their feet back under them, with their seventh straight victory. That said, I do think that there are going to continue to be doubts with this team because they struggled so much about their elite opponents in the out-of-conference part of the schedule. The question will be whether they're really playing better, or whether they're just feasting on a very weak WCC. Even if they win out, their ceiling is probably a 3 seed. For Saint Mary's, the final score was not the big problem here. They're not as good as Gonzaga, despite the number in front of their name, and they did a good job to hang in here on the road. The real worry is leading scorer Patrick Mills (19 ppg). Saint Mary's is known for their outstanding trio of Mills, Omar Samhan and Diamon Simpson, but Mills is probably the one they could least afford to lose. Samhan and Simpson are both big bodies with similar games. Mills is the primary ballhandler and their only outside threat. Mills is expected to be out for a full month, and they are going to have to find some outside offense. I think this puts pressure on senior Carlin Hughes (8 ppg, 3 apg) to lead them up the floor, and for sophomore Mickey McConnell (5 ppg, 41% three point shooting) to be more of a scoring threat. Saint Mary's does not have a Tournament bid wrapped up by any means, and this injury really puts those at-large chances in doubt. They are 16-2, but are only 2-2 against the RPI Top 100, with those two wins over Providence and San Diego State. The computer numbers are good enough to put them in the Tournament now (RPI of 49th, Sagarin of 34th, Pomeroy of 32nd), but they're close enough to the border that a couple more losses could drop them out. They have a huge game tonight against Portland, the team that they're currently tied for second in the WCC with. They are currently 6-1 in the WCC, and I think they're going to have to get to 11-3 to lock up a bid. If they fall to 10-4 then they're going to need at least one win in the WCC tournament.

Arkansas 89, Alabama 80
Arkansas was the more motivated team here, and it showed. Alabama's season is over, and everybody knows it. The end of Ronald Steele's season was the final nail in Mark Gottfried's coffin. The RPI has fallen all the way to 133rd, and even the NIT might be a reach right now. Arkansas, on the other hand, still thinks they can make the Tournament. But after following up the wins over Oklahoma and Texas with an 0-4 start to the SEC season, they absolutely needed to win this one. They're going to have to get to 10-6 to earn a Tournament bid, which means they've got to get on a winning streak. A game this evening at LSU is absolutely essential, especially when you consider that LSU is tied for the SEC West lead at 4-1. It's going to be very hard for a team that doesn't win the SEC West to make a case for the Tournament when you consider how awful it is, and even with this win the Razorbacks are still in last place. The thing is, I don't think Arkansas has that type of consistency in them. They might be the most wide open, undisciplined team in any of the six major conferences. They make an insane number of aggressive cross-court or full-court passes, and they simply lack the discipline to calmly work an offensive possession for thirty seconds. Even in this victory over a bad team, they still turned the ball over 12 times. They turn the ball over 14 times a game, but that doesn't even take into account all of the bad shots they take because they're in a rush. Such an aggressive style, when you're clicking on all cylinders, can make a team really tough to beat, and that's why they pulled those two huge upsets. But over the long haul, especially when your primary ballhandler (Courtney Forston) is a true freshman, it's going to make you inconsistent. I can't see Arkansas finishing any better than 8-8, and that will make them an NIT team.