The Week That Was: Big Ten

Northwestern 74, #17 Minnesota 65
#24 Illinois 67, Ohio State 49
Northwestern 70, #7 Michigan State 63
#18 Purdue 70, #20 Minnesota 62

So many big results from the Big Ten this week that it was hard to pick out only four to focus on. The star of the week, of course, was Northwestern. The upset over Minnesota wasn't as big as you might think, because as I've said many times before: bet on teams that are up against the wall, and bet against teams that just came off big wins. Minnesota was coming off their first ever victory at the Kohl Center, and an 0-4 Northwestern team had one last chance to get back into the at-large debate. So that one upset wouldn't have been a huge shock. But heading into the Breslin Center and knocking off Michigan State was unbelievable, definitely one of the five biggest upsets I've seen this season. And I watched this game, and I can tell you that Michigan State didn't play badly. Northwestern just played out of their minds. Anytime they got an open shot they made it, and their pressure defense was outstanding. Michigan State just could not get the ball into the lane. If it wasn't for superlative play by Goran Suton, the margin of victory would have been much larger. Even after those two huge wins, Northwestern is still only 2-4 in the Big Ten and 10-6 overall. But they have kept themselves alive in the at-large debate. Remember, Northwestern has never played in the Tournament. So just keeping those hopes alive into late February would mark a very good season.

Two other teams with good weeks were Illinois and Purdue. Illinois didn't have any remarkable victories, but they continue to play solidly while taking care of business, and that probably makes them the slight favorite to finish second in the Big Ten. I still think it's a long shot for anybody to catch Michigan State. As for Purdue, they overcame that 0-2 start to now win four straight, but the schedule starts getting tougher. Three of their next four games are on the road, at Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois. If they're going to make a run at second place in the conference, they need to find a way to win two of those three tough road games.

A team that has taken a bit of a step back is Minnesota, a team with a strength that is something of a weakness. They have remarkable depth, with eleven (yes, eleven) players averaging double-digit minutes per game. But they also lack a go-to star in the clutch. It's good to have depth, but you have to find a balance. I think Tubby really needs to find a more clear-cut eight- or nine-man rotation. And the team needs to figure out who "The Man" is, be it Lawrence Westbrook or Al Nolen.

Two teams that have slipped lately have been Ohio State and Wisconsin. As I've discussed many times before, I think Ohio State was just overrated earlier this season. In retrospect, their wins weren't as impressive as we might have thought they were, and the Buckeyes haven't looked too impressive in any of their Big Ten games so far. They are 3-3, but have yet to beat any of the really good teams in the conference. For them, it's going to be about trying to steal an upset or two while taking care of business as much as possible. If they can get to 10-8 in the Big Ten, they should be a lock for the Tournament. For Wisconsin, they have a clear problem with a resolution that is not clear, which is the play of Trevon Hughes. He just has played badly on offense, and allowed that frustration to hurt his defense, and his bad play has been the main cause of Wisconsin's three game losing streak. I don't think there's too much risk of them actually falling out of the Tournament, but obviously this is something that has to turn around soon. Looking at their schedule, I don't see how they can finish worse than 9-9, with a more likely result in the range of an 11-7.

One final team to discuss is Michigan, which is unfortunately reminding me more and more of Arkansas. Just like Arkansas, those two Top Ten victories are getting further and further away in the rear view mirror, and they're being exposed as just not as good as many people thought they were. They are now 3-4 with an absolute must-win today against Northwestern. For one thing, Northwestern is vulnerable after those two straight wins. They're due for a reality check. And for another thing, Michigan knows that road games at Ohio State and Purdue are coming up next week, so a loss today could mean a devastating 3-7 start to the Big Ten season. If they don't win today, their chances at the Tournament start looking a bit bleak.