Sunday, December 21, 2014

W-12 BP68

This is the first time all season long that the tail end of the at-large bids have felt weak. It's actually later than usual this season. You can look at a team like Cincinnati that probably won't earn an at-large bid but just doesn't have an obvious replacement. You can argue for a team like Minnesota that is so well liked by the computers, but computer numbers put up against cupcakes always have to be looked at with suspicion.

Washington did move into the Field of 68, knocking out the Dayton team that had two key players booted off the team this past week. The other change to the Field of 68 came in the NEC, where the St. Francis teams swapped places. St. Francis-PA is now the projected favorite, replacing St. Francis Brooklyn.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Virginia
2. Texas

3. Louisville
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma

4. Utah
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Ohio State
4. Iowa State

5. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
5. Florida
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Georgetown

6. Oklahoma State
6. Northern Iowa
6. UCONN (AAC)
6. SMU

7. West Virginia
7. Maryland
7. Illinois
7. Syracuse

8. Iowa
8. Stanford
8. Pittsburgh
8. Arkansas

9. Colorado State
9. Notre Dame
9. Miami-Florida
9. Michigan State

10. Butler
10. UCLA
10. Baylor
10. HARVARD (IVY)

11. Xavier
11. St. John's
11. BYU
11. Michigan

12. Providence
12. Washington
12. Nebraska
12. Cincinnati
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. UTEP (CONFERNCE USA)

13. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
13. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. DENVER (SUMMIT)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)

16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. ST. FRANCIS-PA (NEC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Dayton, Creighton, Seton Hall, Indiana, Minnesota, California, Colorado, Oregon, South Carolina,

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Memphis, Tulsa, Georgia Tech, Davidson, George Washington, Richmond, Rhode Island, Purdue, Kansas State, TCU, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Houston, Temple, Tulane, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, UMass, St. Bonaventure, Marquette, Penn State,Texas Tech, Charlotte, Evansville, Illinois State, UNLV, Arizona State, Oregon State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Saint Mary's

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

The most honest and in-depth NCAA prediction source on the web? Don't forget LEAST CREDIBLE! How could you not include Old Dominion? Objectively speaking, they have one of the best resumes of everyone. What method of selection do you use, pulling names out of a fish bowl? I sure hope you don't do this for a living! #No_Credibility.

Jeff said...

I do pull names out of a fishbowl, actually. How did you know?

One of those names was Old Dominion. They're listed as one of the contenders for an at-large bid that is not currently in my projected bracket.

Anonymous said...

Maybe you should read the below article. Keep using your fishbowl method. Maybe you and Joe Lenardi should do a bracket together? Like I said, #No_credibility
http://odubleedblue.com/odus-non-conference-resume-large-worthy/

Jeff said...

Well, the problem with the way that article is written is using December RPI numbers as if they're at all meaningful for judging what Old Dominion's resume is going to look like in March.

Old Dominion's RPI and records vs RPI Top 50/100 numbers are so good now because so many of the teams they have played have inflated numbers that will go down. LSU (22), Richmond (53), VCU (3), Illinois St (65), Gardner Webb (73) and Georgia St (50) are all near-certainties to drop by significant amounts as the season goes along.

If we go by RPIForecast, to get an objective guess at Old Dominion's future (the model uses the Sagarin PREDICTOR as its base), it predicts an RPI of 39 and a 6-2 record against the RPI Top 100.

Now would that get them in the bubble discussion? Maybe. I almost lean toward "probably". But it wouldn't get them in, because just a single elite win (VCU) isn't enough.

And that, of course, assumes that Old Dominion keeps up their torrid pace, which is unlikely. History says that teams which surprisingly run up good stats against soft competition early in the season tend to regress back closer to the mean as the season goes along. So I'd take that RPIForecast and back it off a little bit.

And so, that's why my projection is where it is. Old Dominion has played well enough that they are in my bubble discussion, but they have more to prove, and need to play just a little bit better even, to really get projected for an at-large spot.

Anonymous said...

Jeff,
Understand your position, even if I disagree. Thanks for your response. Happy Holidays! Go Monarchs!!

Anonymous said...

Ps. Shouldn't the bracket projection be determined based on the play to date and not what they might do? I misspelled Lunardi because he is irrelevant...JUST LIKE YOU!

Jeff said...

To me, this is the only sensible way to make a bracket. Everybody puts a little projection into their bracket until at least mid-January, and even after that how can any of us possibly know what a hypothetical Selection Committee would do with teams before conference seasons starts?

We can make accurate brackets on Selection Sunday because we know how the Selection Committee has historically weighed things like conference titles and strong finishes. It's nonsensical and irrational to try to transplant that thinking onto a team that is 10-1 but hasn't played anybody yet.