W-12 BP68

This is the first time all season long that the tail end of the at-large bids have felt weak. It's actually later than usual this season. You can look at a team like Cincinnati that probably won't earn an at-large bid but just doesn't have an obvious replacement. You can argue for a team like Minnesota that is so well liked by the computers, but computer numbers put up against cupcakes always have to be looked at with suspicion.

Washington did move into the Field of 68, knocking out the Dayton team that had two key players booted off the team this past week. The other change to the Field of 68 came in the NEC, where the St. Francis teams swapped places. St. Francis-PA is now the projected favorite, replacing St. Francis Brooklyn.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Virginia
2. Texas

3. Louisville
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma

4. Utah
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Ohio State
4. Iowa State

5. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
5. Florida
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Georgetown

6. Oklahoma State
6. Northern Iowa
6. UCONN (AAC)
6. SMU

7. West Virginia
7. Maryland
7. Illinois
7. Syracuse

8. Iowa
8. Stanford
8. Pittsburgh
8. Arkansas

9. Colorado State
9. Notre Dame
9. Miami-Florida
9. Michigan State

10. Butler
10. UCLA
10. Baylor
10. HARVARD (IVY)

11. Xavier
11. St. John's
11. BYU
11. Michigan

12. Providence
12. Washington
12. Nebraska
12. Cincinnati
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. UTEP (CONFERNCE USA)

13. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
13. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. DENVER (SUMMIT)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)

16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. ST. FRANCIS-PA (NEC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Dayton, Creighton, Seton Hall, Indiana, Minnesota, California, Colorado, Oregon, South Carolina,

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Memphis, Tulsa, Georgia Tech, Davidson, George Washington, Richmond, Rhode Island, Purdue, Kansas State, TCU, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Houston, Temple, Tulane, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, UMass, St. Bonaventure, Marquette, Penn State,Texas Tech, Charlotte, Evansville, Illinois State, UNLV, Arizona State, Oregon State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Saint Mary's