W-14 BP68

There was quite a bit of churn around the bubble over the past week. I had been looking for reasons to drop Creighton and Tennessee out of the bracket, and finally found replacements. Notre Dame and Baylor will be moving into the bracket to replace those two.

One other change to the Field of 68 this week is Green Bay moving in as the new favorite in the Horizon League, replacing Cleveland State.

That said, if you're a regular reader you know that I'm not going to overreact to results near the top of the bracket with teams like Wisconsin and Duke. One big reason to keep Wisconsin as a more likely 1 seed than Duke, even if you believe Duke is a slightly better team, is that Wisconsin has significantly less competition for their conference title. Louisville and Virginia certainly seem like better teams than any Big Ten squad that Wisconsin will have to contend with.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams are if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Virginia
2. Texas

3. Louisville
3. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
3. GONZAGA (WCC)
3. North Carolina

4. Oklahoma
4. Utah
4. Ohio State
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)

5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Iowa
5. Iowa State
5. Florida

6. Michigan
6. UCONN (AAC)
6. Georgetown
6. Illinois

7. SMU
7. West Virginia
7. Northern Iowa
7. Dayton

8. Stanford
8. Oklahoma State
8. Syracuse
8. Maryland

9. Pittsburgh
9. UCLA
9. Miami-Florida
9. Michigan State

10. Butler
10. Cincinnati
10. Xavier
10. Colorado State

11. Nebraska
11. Colorado
11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. Arkansas

12. BYU
12. Notre Dame
12. Providence
12. Baylor
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)

13. UTEP (CONFERENCE USA)
13. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)

14. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. DENVER (SUMMIT)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)

16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. WOFFORD (SOCON)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. ST. FRANCIS-BROOKLYN (NEC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, NC State, Rhode Island, Creighton, St. John's, Seton Hall, Minnesota, California, Oregon, Tennessee

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Houston, Memphis, Florida State, Georgia Tech, George Washington, UMass, Richmond, Indiana, Purdue, Kansas State, TCU, Louisiana Tech, Boise State, New Mexico, Wyoming, Arizona State, Washington, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Saint Mary's

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Temple, Tulane, Boston College, Clemson, Davidson, Duquesne, St. Bonaventure, Marquette, Northwestern, Penn State,Texas Tech, Charlotte, Old Dominion, Evansville, Illinois State, UNLV, Oregon State, Mississippi State, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Portland