W-10 BP68

All of the major conferences have opened up conference regular season play, which means that we finally had our first full Saturday of conference action. And we did have a lot of great games (I'll have a Morning News post in the morning, of course).

Weirdly enough, the Tournament bubble feels pretty strong right now. I made one change at the tail end of the at-large teams with Seton Hall moving in and UCLA dropping out. But there are quite a few teams that I left out that can feel like they have strong cases to be in, including South Carolina and Indiana. But for now, those latter two teams have more to prove (to me, at least).

Two of the auto bids have changed as well. My new projected Big South champion is Coastal Carolina, replacing High Point. Meanwhile, Texas Southern has surpassed Alabama State as the favorite in the SWAC (and they actually give the SWAC a real chance to avoid the 16-16 play-in games).

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS (BIG 12)
2. Virginia
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. Kansas
3. Louisville
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma

4. Utah
4. Ohio State
4. Iowa State
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)

5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Georgetown
5. Oklahoma State
5. UCONN (AAC)

6. West Virginia
6. Maryland
6. SMU
6. Stanford

7. Iowa
7. Syracuse
7. Notre Dame
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)

8. Arkansas
8. Northern Iowa
8. Butler
8. Florida

9. Michigan State
9. Baylor
9. Illinois
9. Pittsburgh

10. Colorado State
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. St. John's
10. Cincinnati

11. Providence
11. BYU
11. Xavier
11. Michigan

12. Miami-Florida
12. Washington
12. Minnesota
12. Seton Hall
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. UTEP (CONFERNCE USA)

12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. DENVER (SUMMIT)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)

16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-PA (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Temple, NC State, Dayton, George Washington, Indiana, California, UCLA, Oregon, Georgia, South Carolina,

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Tulsa, Davidson, Rhode Island, Nebraska, Purdue, TCU, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, UNLV, Wyoming, Colorado, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Memphis, Tulane, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, La Salle, Richmond, Creighton, Marquette, Penn State, Kansas State, Charlotte, Evansville, Illinois State, Loyola-Chicago, Boise State, New Mexico, Arizona State, Oregon State, Auburn, Saint Mary's