Sunday, January 04, 2015

W-10 BP68

All of the major conferences have opened up conference regular season play, which means that we finally had our first full Saturday of conference action. And we did have a lot of great games (I'll have a Morning News post in the morning, of course).

Weirdly enough, the Tournament bubble feels pretty strong right now. I made one change at the tail end of the at-large teams with Seton Hall moving in and UCLA dropping out. But there are quite a few teams that I left out that can feel like they have strong cases to be in, including South Carolina and Indiana. But for now, those latter two teams have more to prove (to me, at least).

Two of the auto bids have changed as well. My new projected Big South champion is Coastal Carolina, replacing High Point. Meanwhile, Texas Southern has surpassed Alabama State as the favorite in the SWAC (and they actually give the SWAC a real chance to avoid the 16-16 play-in games).

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:


2. TEXAS (BIG 12)
2. Virginia

3. Kansas
3. Louisville
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma

4. Utah
4. Ohio State
4. Iowa State

5. Georgetown
5. Oklahoma State

6. West Virginia
6. Maryland
6. SMU
6. Stanford

7. Iowa
7. Syracuse
7. Notre Dame

8. Arkansas
8. Northern Iowa
8. Butler
8. Florida

9. Michigan State
9. Baylor
9. Illinois
9. Pittsburgh

10. Colorado State
10. St. John's
10. Cincinnati

11. Providence
11. BYU
11. Xavier
11. Michigan

12. Miami-Florida
12. Washington
12. Minnesota
12. Seton Hall





Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Temple, NC State, Dayton, George Washington, Indiana, California, UCLA, Oregon, Georgia, South Carolina,

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Tulsa, Davidson, Rhode Island, Nebraska, Purdue, TCU, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, UNLV, Wyoming, Colorado, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Memphis, Tulane, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, La Salle, Richmond, Creighton, Marquette, Penn State, Kansas State, Charlotte, Evansville, Illinois State, Loyola-Chicago, Boise State, New Mexico, Arizona State, Oregon State, Auburn, Saint Mary's


Anonymous said...

I know Michigan mat seem better than their record, but they're ranked 88th in KenPom. Their only good win is against Syracuse, they have two bad losses (NJIT AND E Michigan), and have ZERO road wins. After they were trashed by Purdue, I just cant see them winning enough games in the Big 10 to make the tourney, especially when conf. perception is down this year.

Jeff said...

Obviously if Michigan is still 88th in KenPom at the end of the season they're not getting in.

But I think we can all agree that there's some regression coming. The question is whether it will be enough. It's reasonable to think that they're going to be somewhere in the bubble debate in late February.

Anonymous said...

I see you are still leaving ODU out. What else do they need to do? 9 Straight and 12-1 isn't enough?

Anonymous said...

Agree on Michigan. Not sure what anyone has seen from them that would indicate they could make a run to get in. If their name was Old Dominion (sorry, had to do it) would they be in right now? No chance.

Jeff said...

If Michigan was in Conference USA with their current resume they would be left out, yes.

But that's very, very different from saying I have some kind of personal bias for or against either team.

Anonymous said...

I wasn't saying there was any sort of bias on your part. I know it's the nature of it. And I know you are projecting the field, not going on what has necessarily happened so far. My point was that I don't know what Michigan has shown so far this year that would indicate they could make a strong enough run to warrant a selection.

Keep up the great work, I enjoy all of your coverage.

Anonymous said...

You are one of the VERY few that still thinks ODU has work to do. Get with the program. Evaluate teams based on their body of work, not the name on their jersey, or what "might" happen. #Clueless.

Jeff said...

The consensus from all efficiency stats and computer ratings thus far is that Old Dominion is a bubble quality team. History says that bubble quality teams outside of Top Ten leagues almost never earn an at-large bid.

So it's not implausible for Old Dominion to earn an at-large bid, but the odds are well under 50%.

The media is hyping up Old Dominion like they hyped up TCU and Washington before them. My job on my projected bracket is not to overreact to media hype, but to try to objectively figure out where these teams will be when the dust settles.

Anonymous said...

So let me get this straight, you have Ohio State as a #4 Seed, and ODU 19 teams out? Please watch this video.

Jeff said...

Yeah, and a few hours ago Indiana fans thought I was a moron for having them being Michigan State.

Like I said, I am projecting the bracket as it will be Selection Sunday, not reflecting the hype flavor of the week.

Anonymous said...

13-1 and nationally ranked with a convincing win over a 5-seed and a top 20 RPI ain't the flavor of the month. They are for real and the fact that you don't even have them winning the conference is pathetic research in its own right. Have you seen something that leads you to believe they are going to collapse? Have you seen them play at all?

Anonymous said...

I think a fair question is how many of the teams in your bracket have you actually seen play. There is no way you have seen ODU play. Less than 50% chance of earning at at-large? Put down the P5 pipe and actually follow college basketball. CUSA is weak. ODU did more than enough OOC. Assuming they don't lose to anyone that they shouldn't, they will end up with 3-4 L's (at worst).

I appreciate the effort you put into this, but come on dude, you gotta do research on the non-P5's. To say teams outside normally don't get in would be statistically accurate (most of them don't deserve to get in). But of the teams that have legitimate shots at an at-large from outside of the P5's, I think you do see them get in. hell, ODU came from the CAA when George Mason and VCU both got it as at-large.

Keep working hard but do some research.

Jeff said...

You're right, maybe I should start watching college basketball. It'll probably help me.

Anonymous said...

haha...your bracket seems to back up the argument that you need to watch some ball.

Jeff said...

I've warned you guys enough times. I'm happy to debate anything like an adult, but if you're just going to come on here to call me mean names, I'm not going to engage.

I understand that you're all just coming over here from the same ODU message board, but you should consider how you're making your fan base appear by behaving this way.

Anonymous said...

This guy Jeff just lost me with the "behaving this way" comment. This is my first post but the posts before me don't seem to be out of order for the most part. In fact, it seems most provided rational arguments and reasoning. One even provided a link to the "blind resume game" showing how ODU's resume surpasses a team Jeff still has as a 4-seed.

Instead of responding to legitimate questions such as "Have you seen something that leads you to believe they are going to collapse? Have you seen them play at all?" Jeff checked out.

I'll leave with this. This bracket put UCLA in a higher tier than ODU. UCLA won last night but at the time of the post, they had lost 5 straight. The day this was posted they lost 71-39! That alone strains all credibility.

Jeff said...

A lot of teams will lose in blowouts on the road against Top Ten opponents.

What you have to understand is that having UCLA ahead of Old Dominion is neither saying that UCLA is better than Old Dominion or that they have a better resume so far. Certainly neither is true.

The difference UCLA has is that they play in a league where they will have at least a half dozen more chances for "quality" wins. Old Dominion will have no chances. On the contrast, every loss Old Dominion suffers will be a "bad" loss, while UCLA has plenty of teams that they can lose to (like Utah) that won't be held against them at all.

This is a big advantage that major conference teams have over mid-majors. And it's why a team like Old Dominion, which is bubble quality and in a mid-sized league, generally ends up losing enough conference games to end up in the NIT. It's not unprecedented for a team like them to get in, but more often than not they don't.

Anonymous said...

Agree about the schedule leading to more opportunities for bad losses for ODU. However, just think ODU's non-con was significantly stronger than UCLA's. UCLA plated a decent amount of tough games but who had they beaten (prior to last night)? No one of note. Best win was Long Beach St.

And based on ODU's body of work, there is no evidence they will lose enough bad games to knock them out. If that's what youre saying (i.e., that you think ODU will lose a bunch of games based on some kind of analysis of the team) then fair--i just disagree but can't begrudge you that. But it seems like you are just assuming as a mid-major they will.

I implore you to keep an eye on them bc I think you'll realize you're mistaken in this case.

Anonymous said...

And I appreciate the effort and responses

Jeff said...

I'm assuming nothing. Old Dominion is currently projected to go 26-4 (15-3) on KenPom, which would put their RPI in the low-mid 30s.

But KenPom does not take shooting luck into account. Old Dominion has been very fortunate in opponent FT% and 3P%. So throwing in one more extra loss for their opponent shooting regressing, I figure 25-5 (14-4) with an RPI in the low-to-mid 40s. History says that resume gets left out. That's why they're projected where they are.

Anonymous said...

Huh. I thought this was going to be way worst based on how you and ODU fans were acting on twitter. Did you have to delete some comments? Because if these are some of the worst comments you gave seen from fans, you must spend most of your time in some wonderful Utopia comment sections.

On the other hand, I don't think you are being all that unfair to ODU I mean , you're right ODU can not afford to lose much in this conference to get an at-large. Every single game they play stresses me out because the HAVE to win.

Now, I do think that there FT % defense has SOMETHING to do with skill. Sorry, you can through all the math at me you like. It's not 100% luck, 0% skill.