W-7 BP68

We're firmly in the thick of conference play now, and there was quite a bit of movement in the bracket this week.

The bubble is starting to shrink and clear up. We now have a pretty good idea of the 10-15 teams that we'll be debating in early March. And for this new bracket projection, I have flipped four of them. Indiana and Davidson move into the bracket, while Pittsburgh and Minnesota drop out. Also, this isn't a change to the membership of the Field of 68, but Kansas is the new Big 12 favorite, replacing Texas.

All of the teams in the "Seriously Considered" category out of the bracket have, by definition, been considered for one of those last few at-large spots. But if you're curious, it's Georgia that is the "first team out". They'd be an at-large team if the season ended now, but I just have some suspicions about them regressing at this point. Another good week and they might be in, though.

As for the Full Bubble, we're still in the early stages of eliminating mid-majors. This week, seven teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Ball State, Charlotte, High Point, Eastern Michigan, Lafayette, Missouri State and Northern Illinois. That leaves 78 teams currently out of the bracket that still have a chance for an at-large bid.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. Virginia
2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. GONZAGA (WCC)
2. KANSAS (BIG 12)

3. Texas
3. North Carolina
3. Louisville
3. Utah

4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)
4. Iowa State
4. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Oklahoma

5. West Virginia
5. Notre Dame
5. Maryland
5. Georgetown

6. SMU
6. Ohio State
6. Oklahoma State
6. Baylor

7. UCONN (AAC)
7. Northern Iowa
7. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
7. Stanford

8. Arkansas
8. Butler
8. Michigan State
8. Cincinnati

9. Providence
9. Xavier
9. Dayton
9. Miami-Florida

10. Iowa
10. Colorado State
10. St. John's
10. Seton Hall

11. Florida
11. Syracuse
11. NC State
11. Illinois
11. Indiana

12. HARVARD (IVY)
12. BYU
12. Davidson
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)

13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)

16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-PA (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Tulsa, Pittsburgh, George Washington, Minnesota, Washington, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Michigan, Kansas State, TCU, Old Dominion, Wyoming, UCLA, Oregon, Oregon State, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Clemson, Rhode Island, Richmond, Marquette, Nebraska, Purdue, UTEP, Western Kentucky, Valparaiso, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Evansville, Illinois State,  New Mexico, Arizona State, Colorado, South Carolina, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Tulane, Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, George Mason, La Salle, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, Creighton, DePaul, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas Tech, UC Davis, Long Beach St, Northeastern, William & Mary, Yale, Akron, Kent St, Western Michigan, Indiana St, Loyola-Chicago, Boise St, UNLV, Utah St, California, USC, Washington State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Sam Houston St, Pepperdine,