Sunday, January 18, 2015

W-8 BP68

We're just eight weeks from Selection Sunday, and that brings us to the annual "Full Bubble".

What is the Full Bubble? It means from here on out I list every team with even the slightest possible chance of an at-large bid. Teams that win every game from here until their conference tournament title game and then lose... would they have a chance to get in as an at-large bid? If yes, they're listed.

With such a wide net it means a whole bunch of mediocre teams are listed below. Most likely, none of the teams in the last category will get in. But with each new bracket I will eliminate a few teams from at-large contention, never to return. Right now I've got 85 teams listed below. By the time we hit Selection Sunday it'll be somewhere around ten.

So what about the teams with a realistic chance to get into the NCAA Tournament? Well, there are two changes to the projected Field of 68. NC State moves in as an at-large team, replacing Michigan. And South Dakota State moves in as the new favorite in the Summit, replacing Denver.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. Virginia
2. TEXAS (BIG 12)
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. Kansas
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma
3. Louisville

4. Utah
4. Iowa State
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLYE)
4. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)

5. Maryland
5. West Virginia
5. Notre Dame
5. Ohio State

6. UCONN (AAC)
6. Oklahoma State
6. SMU
6. Georgetown

7. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
7. Northern Iowa
7. Stanford
7. Michigan State

8. Baylor
8. Arkansas
8. Iowa
8. Butler

9. Florida
9. Syracuse
9. St. John's
9. Cincinnati

10. Providence
10. Dayton
10. Xavier
10. Seton Hall

11. Miami-Florida
11. Colorado State
11. HARVARD (IVY)
11. BYU

12. Illinois
12. Pittsburgh
12. Minnesota
12. NC State
12. LOUISIANA TECH (CONFERENCE USA)
12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)

13. TOLEDO (MAC)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. HOFSTRA (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)

15. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)

16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. COASTAL CAROLINA (BIG SOUTH)
16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC)
16. ST. FRANCIS-PA (NEC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Davidson, George Washington, Indiana, Michigan, UCLA, Washington, Georgia

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
Temple, Tulsa, Purdue, TCU, Old Dominion, UTEP, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Alabama, LSU, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Saint Mary's

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Memphis, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Rhode Island, Richmond, La Salle, Creighton, Marquette, Nebraska, Kansas State, Western Kentucky, Valparaiso, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Evansville, Illinois State, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico, Arizona State, California, Oregon State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Tulane, Boston College, Virginia Tech, George Mason, St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's, DePaul, High Point, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas Tech, UC Davis, Long Beach St, Northeastern, William & Mary, Charlotte, Yale, Akron, Ball St, Kent St, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan, Indiana St, Missouri St, Boise St, UNLV, Utah St, USC, Washington State, Lafayette, Auburn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Sam Houston St, Pepperdine,

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Might want to update your bracket. You still have Minny in when they went on a horrible slump. Indiana still out after going 4-1 to start B1G play. Your bracket doesnt change much from week to week.

Jeff said...

It doesn't change much because projections don't change much. The media freaks out and overreacts to every win and loss for every team, but there's no reason I need to do that also.

Anonymous said...

Minnesota's RPI is nearly 100. They are in only 2 of the 55 brackets on the matrix. There's a reason for that. They wouldn't even be discussed at this point.

Jeff said...

It's pretty reasonable to think that Minnesota will be on the bubble on Selection Sunday. Their schedule gets far easier over the next few weeks.

You have to realize that all of the teams I have as 12 seeds right now are <50% to earn an at-large bid. I just like their odds a little bit better than the teams just out of the field.

Anonymous said...

Just to let you know i was the first Anon post and not the second one. But...

These brackets are not what you think will outcome will be when selection sunday occurs but what you think they should be at the current time.

Minny lost 5 straight and beat a subpar Rutgers team and is sitting at 10-7. Their best win is against UGA.

Indiana went on a 4-1 start in the B1G and has wins over Butler and Ohio State (who minny lost to at home) along with wins over Illinois and Nebraska on the road.

You might want to rethink your process on this one because this is a joke. I havent even dissected the rest of the bracket yet. do you want me to continue? I have monday off.

Anonymous said...

Damn Jeff. Just took a glance at your bracket again. (still the first Anon guy)

You still have Florida and Cuse as a 9 seed. How do you explain those?

Seriously, take a look at all teams and their body of work before you put up crap. Shit can chnange in the spand of 7 days. It doesnt matter where you think they might be in Marche but where they are NOW. If we thought your way might as well stick with preseason rankings and to hell this shit.

Jeff said...

So I'm not allowed to do a projected bracket because you say so?

I explained just last week why projected brackets are the only sensible brackets to make.

Anonymous said...

Jeff,

First, I love the site. I'm curious to your thoughts on two conferences races and thus the seeding. First the Big 12 race and seeding Texas over KU, OU and IAState. I know its going to be a fun race there to the finish there, but selecting UT when they are already a game back. Plus no one has dethroned KU in a decade, why bet it'll happen now?

Next, the ACC. The 'Hoos have a 2 game lead on Duke and I'd argue the OOC matches up pretty well.

I know there are lots of games left and lots of possible outcomes. Curious to how you seeing it play out.

Jeff said...

Well, first note that the teams I have winning each conference are the projected automatic bid winners, not the projected regular season champions. So if Duke finishes 1 game behind Virginia in the ACC standings because of a loss in Virginia but wins the ACC tournament, I'd expect Duke to have the clear advantage over Virginia for a 1 seed.

That said, I struggle with both the ACC and Big 12 conferences every week. I'm closer to flipping the ACC to Virginia than I am to flipping Texas out of the Big 12, but both are certainly very close. Had Duke lost to Louisville I would have moved Virginia into that 1 seed.

Anonymous said...

Following up. Thanks for the reply on the conference races. Lots of ball left to play and hopefully, the races will sort out a bit and bring clarity. Maybe a few good games to watch while it happens.