Sunday, November 06, 2011

Previewing Friday, November 11th, Part II

This is the third in a series of posts previewing the first week of the regular season. My preview of the games happening between Monday and Thursday is here. There are so many games to watch on Friday, November 11th that I've split the preview up into two posts. The first is here. The remainder of the games to watch are below:

Belmont at #6 Duke (9PM, ESPU): This could be a fantastic game. Belmont is one of the most underrated teams in the nation. They finished last season 19th in the Pomeroy ratings, and it was no fluke. The team plays with relentless speed and aggressiveness, and are just a pain to play. Their problem was that they played four quality teams all year and just had bad luck. In the regular season they played Tennessee twice and Vanderbilt once, losing all three games by single digits (they lost a true road game at Tennessee by only one point). In the NCAA Tournament they happened to draw the single worst match-up a team with their style of play can draw (a team that always forces a slow pace, and that never turns the ball over).

Last season, Belmont had 11 players that were basically interchangeable parts. All earned at least ten minutes per game while none earned more than 25. Two of them graduate, but none is crucial. It's hard to project them to be a Top 20 team again, but they're going to be dangerous. I have them as a 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament right now.

Here's the fun part: Duke could be the type of team Belmont gives a hard time. Duke lost both Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith, meaning that their only good ball handler coming back is Seth Curry. Tyler Thornton is listed at point guard, but he looked last year like he had a long way to go to be a quality ACC ball handler. Austin Rivers, who was arguably the best high school player in the nation last year, will be on the floor, as will point guard Quinn Cook. But as good as those two were in high school, it's asking a lot for them to handle a defense like Belmont in their first competitive NCAA game. I don't see why it's inconceivable for Duke to commit 20 turnovers and to make this a competitive game.

BYU at Utah State (9PM, ESPN3): Utah State has a great crowd, and they should be fired up for opening night against rival BYU. For BYU, this is going to be their first season in the WCC, where games like this will be more important. In years past BYU could count on earning an at-large bid by winning enough games in conference play. But while the WCC is a quality conference, it's not the Mountain West, and BYU is going to have to start doing their best Gonzaga imitation. They need to win quality games out-of-conference, and Utah State counts.

Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery are gone. Brandon Davies will return from suspension, Chris Collinsworth is back from injury, Matt Carlino has transferred in from UCLA, and Nick Martineau is back from his Mormon mission. Kyle Collinsworth, meanwhile, is off on his own Mormon mission. and Logan Magnusson has graduated as well. In other words, there's a lot of roster turnover. The biggest concern for me is in the backcourt, particularly at point guard. Carlino and Martineau are the only listed point guards on the roster. While Carlino is probably the most likely starting point guard for this team, he won't be eligible to play until the spring semester. Martineau played very limited minutes even before going on his mission. Maybe star shooting guard recruit Demarcus Harrison handles the point? I'm definitely curious to see.

Utah State, as good as they've been the past few years, had major losses to graduation. Four starters are gone, including star Taj Wesley. The key returner has to be starting point guard Brockeith Pane. Brady Jardine, a very good rebounder, will be back, as will star 2010 recruit James Walker. Stew Morrill always has this team playing well, and despite all the losses I've still picked them to win the WAC, but this is going to be a rebuilding year. The crowd will be ready to go, but I'll be surprised if their Aggies escape with a win.

Oregon at #7 Vanderbilt (10PM, ESPN3): Never before in history has a Vanderbilt basketball team gotten this much hype preseason. That "#7" next to their name is all you need to know about that. That said, Festus Ezeli (their best interior defender) is out for up to two months with a strained knee. Lance Goulbourne will be fine starting the frontcourt, but there are just question marks after him. We know Vandy's wing players John Jenkins and Jeffery Taylor are spectacular, and the team will score plenty, but it will be interesting to see if anybody can step up in the frontcourt with Ezeli out. Guards Dai-Jon Parker and Kedren Johnson are their top 2011 recruits.

So can Oregon take advantage of Vanderbilt's questionable frontcourt? I doubt it. Their only player over 6'6" who played in a game last year is Jeremy Jacob, who has been injured for almost his entire college career, including a broken foot and a couple of knee surgeries. He missed the final 22 games of last season with injury, and while he's supposed to be totally healthy, you never know. Tony Woods has size, but he's also a brand new transfer and has never been much of an offensive player. 6'6" EJ Singler will be the team's best player, and I do think he's going to be really good this season (potentially first team All-Pac 12), but he's more of a perimeter player than a post player. And Oregon will not beat Vanderbilt on the perimeter. The most important newcomer? Probably star 2011 recruit Jabari Brown.

Missouri State at Nevada (10 PM): This is an intriguing game for two teams that I'm not projecting to earn at-large bids, but which can make statements on opening day that I might be underrating them. Missouri State was the better team last year - they went 25-8 and won the Missouri Valley regular season title before falling in the Finals of Arch Madness, and then in the Round of 16 of the NIT. But as good as they were last season, they played a very tight seven man rotation, four of whom are gone. They also lose head coach Cuonzo Martin, who took the Tennessee job. They have some good young talent, and I expect them to be back near the top of the Missouri Valley sooner rather than later, but they have a long way to go. It's a rebuilding season. Their top 2011 recruits look to be combo forward Christian Kirk and shooting guard Dorrian Williams.

Nevada came into last season having lost Luke Babbitt and Armon Johnson to the NBA, and they really struggled, finishing only 8-8 in the WAC. But everybody is back, including some really good young talent. Deonte Burton could be the best point guard in the WAC, Dario Hunt is an inside-outside scoring threat, and Duke transfer Olek Czyz can be impossible to guard when he's nailing threes. They'll definitely be improved, and they could be the top contender to Utah State in the WAC. I expect them to be favored in this game, particularly at home, and with a win here they can build momentum to a true road game at UNLV on Monday, November 14th.

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