Saturday, December 27, 2014

W-11 BP68

Only 11 weeks until Selection Sunday, and only 3 weeks until I start the "full bubble", when I start eliminating potential bubble teams from at-large contention. The season is going by too quickly, like it always does.

Anyway, there is just one change to the makeup of the Field of 68 this week, with Minnesota moving in as an at-large team, replacing Nebraska. Another change is that Texas is my new pick as the Big 12 favorite, replacing Kansas.

Remember, this is a projection of what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday, and not a measure of where teams would be if the season ended now.

For now, here's how I see things ending up on Selection Sunday:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. WISCONSIN (BIG TEN)
1. DUKE (ACC)
1. ARIZONA (PAC-12)

2. VILLANOVA (BIG EAST)
2. TEXAS (BIG 12)
2. Virginia
2. GONZAGA (WCC)

3. Kansas
3. Louisville
3. North Carolina
3. Oklahoma

4. Utah
4. Ohio State
4. Iowa State
4. WICHITA STATE (MISSOURI VALLEY)

5. Florida
5. SAN DIEGO STATE (MOUNTAIN WEST)
5. VCU (ATLANTIC TEN)
5. Georgetown

6. Northern Iowa
6. UCONN (AAC)
6. Oklahoma State
6. SMU

7. West Virginia
7. Maryland
7. Stanford
7. Illinois

8. Syracuse
8. Iowa
8. Pittsburgh
8. Arkansas

9. Notre Dame
9. Colorado State
9. Michigan State
9. Butler

10. UCLA
10. Baylor
10. HARVARD (IVY)
10. St. John's

11. Xavier
11. Providence
11. Michigan
11. Washington

12. Miami-Florida
12. Cincinnati
12. BYU
12. Minnesota
12. TOLEDO (MAC)
12. UTEP (CONFERNCE USA)

12. GREEN BAY (HORIZON)
13. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
13. IONA (MAAC)
13. GEORGIA STATE (SUN BELT)

14. NORTHEASTERN (COLONIAL)
14. EASTERN WASHINGTON (BIG SKY)
14. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
14. FLORIDA GULF COAST (ATLANTIC SUN)

15. STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
15. DENVER (SUMMIT)
15. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
15. WOFFORD (SOCON)

16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (MEAC)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. HIGH POINT (BIG SOUTH)
16. ST. FRANCIS-PA (NEC)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
NC State, Dayton, George Washington, Seton Hall, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Oregon, South Carolina,

Other teams with a decent shot, but that need to improve their resume:
Memphis, Temple, Tulsa, Davidson, Richmond, Rhode Island, Creighton, Kansas State, TCU, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, Boise State, UNLV, Wyoming, Colorado, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Other teams I'm keeping my eye on, but that need to dramatically improve their resume:
Tulane, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, La Salle, UMass, Marquette, Penn State, Purdue, Charlotte, Evansville, Illinois State, Loyola-Chicago, New Mexico, Arizona State, Oregon State, Auburn, Mississippi State, Saint Mary's

14 comments:

DMoore said...

Is moving Texas above Kansas more of a statement about Texas or about Kansas? Is this because of how they were beaten by Temple? What's triggered the change in your thinking?

Jeff said...

The Temple loss was the primary mover. I had been debating the switch for a couple of weeks. It's concerning that Cliff Alexander is still so inconsistent, and it continues to be impressive how well Texas has played without their point guard.

luciente said...

It looks like the entire Big East moved up this week.

Also, Temple's making the tournament - you can take that to the bank.

Jeff said...

There are maybe 30 teams I'm sure are making the Tournament. A team that wasn't in the Top 100 of any computer rating before beating Kansas isn't one of them.

I appreciate that they added two key transfers, but if there's one rule of thumb to making a reasonable projected bracket it's not to overreact to 40 minute sample sizes.

luciente said...

Not overreacting! Almost every year one of the Philly teams comes from way down to make the tourney. This year'll be no different.

And the AAC? Ptooey. A sadsack of a conference right now.

Jeff said...

I already have a Big Five school getting in: Villanova.

The AAC being down makes it harder for Temple, not easier. It means that there are few chances for quality wins but plenty of chances for bad losses.

Anonymous said...

Ohio State projected as a 4th seed? Seems high for a team without an impressive non-conference win and a weak non-conference schedule. Also, there is a huge gap between Ohio St. and the next Big 10 team. I guess the Big 10 is having a down year right?

Jeff said...

The Big Ten is down from last year, yes.

Both Sagarin and Pomeroy project 13+ wins from Ohio St in Big Ten play. That would get them something around a 4 seed.

Anonymous said...

I see. Also, VCU is #1 in RPI. How did that happen?

Jeff said...

Until about a week ago, Green Bay was #1 in RPI.

Basically, never ever look at RPI before mid-January. As bad as it is in March, it's absolutely atrocious before mid-January.

You'll notice in my daily Morning News posts that I haven't cited any actual RPIs so far this season. I'll say things like "Teams likely to finish in the RPI Top 100", but I won't cite their actual RPI. It's just pointless this early on.

Anonymous said...

I think you need to re-evaluate Florida at this point. Just look at their expected record on Kempom. Even with the top 15 ranking, they are only projected to finish 20-11 overall.

It gets worse. Their chances at signature wins are severely limited. The only teams left on their schedule that you have in the field of 68 are Connecticut, Kentucky twice, and Arkansas. If they don't beat Kentucky, then they are stuck with having home wins over UConn and Arkansas as their best wins of the season.

I would agree that a road win over South Carolina or LSU would be better, but you yourself have said the committee does not value road wins like they should.

I know their Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings are great, but if you dig deeper, a team that is being projected to finish 20-11 without a victory over a top 25 team has no business being projected as high as they are in your bracket right now.

Jeff said...

Obviously Florida is going to drop after this loss to Florida State. Probably a seed or two.

Anonymous said...

Their projected record was 20-11, with no signature wins, even before they lost this game to FSU.

I think a 6 or 7 seed is being awfully generous at this point.

Jeff said...

The thing you have to remember about Florida's projected record is that they were very shorthanded early on. Several key players missed multiple games (Eli Carter missing a whole lot of time) and they just recently added a transfer and a high school recruit who just became eligible. They should play significantly better the rest of the way than they have so far. Obviously they didn't show that today, though.