Thursday, March 08, 2012

D-3 BP68

We're down to the final week before Selection Sunday, which means three bracket projections. The next one will be out after Friday night's games are over.

Most of the changes to this bracket were with the auto-bids. I can't recall another year where such a higher percentage of the lower-mid conferences had their best teams taken out. Teams like Middle Tennessee and Iona are heading home, to be replaced by inferior teams. Teams like Davidson and Belmont will be able to take advantage of the carnage by moving up to a better seed, but the real winners are the future 3 and 4 seed, who are going to have softer opponents in the Round of 64.

I only made one change to the at-large teams: Xavier came in and Arizona came out. As I just said a few minutes ago, I don't think Seton Hall will be in the Tournament, but at the moment I just can't come up with an alternative. A couple of teams will steal NCAA Tournament spots over the next few days - I just don't know which teams those will be.

Four teams were eliminated from at-large contention: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland and Minnesota. That leaves us with 22 teams not in my bracket that still have a chance at an at-large bid.

I'll have a bubble watch up in a few minutes as well.

The following are my typical disclaimers:

If I projected your favorite team below where you think it deserves to be, it's because I hate your favorite team. If I projected a team above where you think it deserves to be, it's because I secretly love them and have an incredibly blind bias in their favor.

On a more serious note, this is a projection of the final bracket on Selection Sunday, and not a listing of how I think teams would be seeded if the season ended now. There's a difference.

Here we go:

1. KENTUCKY (SEC)
1. SYRACUSE (BIG EAST)
1. KANSAS (BIG 12)
1. OHIO STATE (BIG TEN)

2. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
2. Missouri
2. Michigan State
2. Duke

3. Marquette
3. Wisconsin
3. Georgetown
3. Baylor

4. Michigan
4. TEMPLE (ATLANTIC TEN)
4. Indiana
4. NEW MEXICO (MWC)

5. Louisville
5. ST. MARY'S (WCC)
5. Iowa State
5. Notre Dame

6. UNLV
6. Wichita State
6. MEMPHIS (CONFERENCE USA)
6. San Diego State

7. MURRAY STATE (OVC)
7. Gonzaga
7. Florida
7. Florida State

8. Purdue
8. Saint Louis
8. CREIGHTON (MVC)
8. Kansas State

9. Vanderbilt
9. Cincinnati
9. Virginia
9. Alabama

10. CALIFORNIA (PAC-12)
10. Texas
10. BYU
10. HARVARD (IVY)

11. Northwestern
11. UConn
11. Washington
11. South Florida

12. LONG BEACH STATE (BIG WEST)
12. West Virginia
12. Colorado State
12. Southern Miss
12. Xavier

13. Miami (Fl)
13. Seton Hall
13. VCU (COLONIAL)
13. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (SUMMIT)
13. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)

14. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
14. OHIO (MAC)
14. NEW MEXICO STATE (WAC)
14. MONTANA (BIG SKY)

15. TEXAS-ARLINGTON (SOUTHLAND)
15. LOYOLA-MARYLAND (MAAC)
15. LIU (NEC)
15. DETROIT (HORIZON)

16. LEHIGH (PATRIOT)
16. NORFOLK STATE (MEAC)
16. WESTERN KENTUCKY (SUN BELT)
16. UNC-ASHEVILLE (BIG SOUTH)
16. STONY BROOK (AMERICA EAST)
16. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE (SWAC)

Teams seriously considered that just missed the cut:
Drexel, Oregon, Mississippi State, Middle Tennessee

Decent resumes, but not good enough:
NC State, St. Joseph's, Arizona, Tennessee, Oral Roberts, Nevada

Long shots, but still in the at-large discussion:
Dayton, Central Florida, Iona, Mississippi

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
UMass, Marshall, Akron, Wyoming, Colorado, Stanford, Arkansas, LSU

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