Friday, March 09, 2012

Ole Miss Beats Tennessee In A Bubble Battle

Ole Miss 77, Tennessee 72, OT
Tennessee took this game to overtime on a miracle 25-foot banked three-pointer by Skylar McBee. Tennessee players were pumped and they looked to have all of the momentum, although as previous analysis has shown, "momentum" simply doesn't carry over to extra periods. No matter who makes that last shot, each team will tend to have approximately a 50% chance of winning in overtime. Ole Miss hit their first three shots in overtime, and then hit their free throws to close the game out.

Tennessee came into this game with an intriguing bubble resume for two reasons, despite their 13-13 record against the RPI Top 200 (now 13-14). First of all, they had four RPI Top 50 wins and went 10-6 in SEC play. Second of all, the addition midseason of Jarnell Stokes made a huge change, and the Selection Committee showed last season with USC's Jio Fontan that they will take midseason additions into consideration. But that 13-14 record against the RPI Top 200 is really awful, as is a Sagarin ELO_CHESS that will be around 70th. They could still be an at-large team if they get the same treatment as last year's USC team, but their overall resume isn't nearly good enough. And Jio Fontan was more important to USC than Jarnell Stokes is to Tennessee.

Ole Miss is closing in on the bubble as well. They went 8-8 in SEC play and are now 6-11 against the RPI Top 100, with a win over Alabama and no particularly bad losses. Their Sagarin ELO_CHESS should move into the 50-55 range. But the Selection Committee tends to prefer teams with big wins and bad losses to teams with neither, and Ole Miss is the latter. They need at least one more win to make the NCAA Tournament. They'll take on the winner of Vanderbilt/Georgia next.

#11 Baylor 81, #3 Kansas 72
Kansas seemed to have the same mental problem that Syracuse did. They just didn't come into this game with the same intensity as their opponent. Baylor was also just clicking offensively here. They had six players score in double-digits, had assists on 16 of 24 made baskets, and got the hot shooting from Brady Heslip (4-for-6 behind the arc) that they have always needed this season to get big wins.

Baylor came into this game 0-4 against Kansas and Missouri, so this win will go a long way toward giving them confidence that they can beat elite teams in the NCAA Tournament. They're also now 9-6 against the RPI Top 50, with a Top Ten Sagarin ELO_CHESS. This win should more or less lock up a 3 seed, and they could earn a 2 seed if they win the Big 12 tournament title.

Unlike Syracuse, Kansas is at risk of losing their 1 seed. If Ohio State or Michigan State win the Big Ten tournament, and then North Carolina wins the ACC tournament, Kansas could very well get bumped. Missouri winning the Big 12 tournament could potentially pass them as well. They'll have to sit and wait now.

#21 San Diego State 79, Colorado State 69
This was about as good as San Diego State has looked this season. Colorado State played well and were motivated, but their prolific offense was slowed to a crawl by San Diego State's suffocating defense. Colorado State was held to 1.06 PPP, their worst offensive performance since.... San Diego State held them to 1.05 a couple of weeks ago.

Colorado State was potentially playing for their NCAA Tournament lives here. They went 8-6 in Mountain West play and finished 7-9 against the RPI Top 100, with wins over New Mexico, UNLV and San Diego State, along with bad losses to Boise State, TCU and Northern Iowa. Their RPI is 27th, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is right around 50th. If the season ended now they'd either be one of the last teams into the field, or one of the first teams out. So they need to spend the next couple of days rooting for teams like St. Louis and California, and then hoping to get a break on Selection Sunday.

San Diego State moves to 9-5 against the RPI Top 100 with this win, and also pushes their Sagarin ELO_CHESS inside the Top 20. If the season ended now they'd be a 5 or 6 seed, but they could potentially move up to a 4 if they win the Mountain West tournament. They'll play for the title tomorrow against either UNLV or New Mexico.

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