And It Begins

The first conference tournaments start tonight. Nothing much to watch today, unless you happen to be a fan of one of the teams playing. Nothing will happen that will have any bubble implications. That's not to say that there aren't a lot of other important games today, including imperative games for Ohio State and Kent State on ESPN and ESPN2 respectively, at 7pm eastern time. But while you're watching those games, you can read a quick recap of some important recent results:

#4 UCLA 68, Arizona 66
After coming out a bit flat, Arizona made a fierce run to finish the first half. After that it was even the whole way, but UCLA just made the important plays at the end of the game. Both of these teams are very talented, and watching this game for 5 minutes you might not be aware which of these teams is fighting for a #1 seed and which of these teams is a bubble team. But the difference is that UCLA seems to always find a way to win, and Arizona doesn't. You have to wonder whether Lute Olsen's appearance at Senior Day had an effect on a team clearly being pulled apart by internal dissension regarding the head coaching position. At the end of the day what really matters is that UCLA remains in the thick of the race for a #1 seed. And Arizona has now slipped to 7-9, knowing that no 9-9 team has ever gotten an at-large bid out of the Pac-10. The conventional wisdom is that several teams could get an at-large bid out of the Pac-10 with a 9-9 record this year, however, and Arizona tops that list (Oregon and Arizona State are on it, as well). Other than their conference record, the rest of the Arizona resume is really solid. They have the #1 strength of schedule in the country, so the RPI remains 24th. The Sagarin Rating is also 27th. The 5-7 record against the RPI Top 50 and the 6-6 record in true road games are decent, as well. Those stats don't scream at-large team, but they're better than a lot of other bubble teams. If Arizona can claw back to 9-9, I'd say they're pretty safe for an at-large bid. The first win should be pretty automatic (at Oregon State), although the second will be tough (at Oregon). Can Arizona squeeze in as an 8-10 Pac-10 team? Yes, but it will be tough. They'll have to win at least one game in the Pac-10 Tournament, and they'll have to hope for a little bit of help in other conference tournaments.

#18 Louisville 68, Villanova 54
Yet another home team blew out their opponents on Senior Day. The crowds are always great and the players are fired up, so it's hard for any road team to tough out a win (just ask Texas Tech). For Louisville, the implications of this one are that they have narrowed the Big East title to two teams. The winner of the Louisville-Georgetown game on March 8th will now take the undisputed title. As for Villanova, this is now their second straight loss. Both were against elite teams, so they're not bad losses. But a 7-9 conference record is still a 7-9 conference record. They do end with two relatively easy conference games - against South Florida, and at Providence. If they can win both they'll end up 19-11 with a 9-9 Big East record. The RPI will still be in the 50s (and so, most likely, will the Sagarin Rating), but they'll at least be in a position to earn an at-large bid during the Big East Tournament. They'll obviously need to win their first round Big East Tournament game, and then it will come down to a second round game against one of the big boys of the conference (most likely Georgetown, Louisville, UConn or Notre Dame). If they lose that game, will they still get in? They'd be 20-12 with an RPI in the 50s. They are currently 7-9 against the RPI Top 100, and a loss in the second round of the Big East Tournament would probably drop that to 7-10 for the season. They'll be in the discussion, but they'll need help. Most likely that Big East Quarterfinal match-up will be an "all-in" game. They win they're in, they lose they're probably out. Should be compelling television.

Temple 57, St. Joseph's 56
A nice win for a surging Temple team that actually still has an outside shot at an at-large bid. If they win out they'll end up 11-5 in the Atlantic Ten, and alone in second place. With their poor out-of-conference resume (7-7 overall, RPI of 108th), it probably won't be. But it will be worth discussing. The bigger implications of this game are St. Joseph's blowing what might have been their easiest remaining game. They play Xavier on Thursday, and then head to Dayton over the weekend. If St. Joseph's drops both, they'll fall to 8-8 in conference and will have no shot at an at-large bid. They probably need to win both remaining games to have a good shot at an at-large bid, although they'll still be alive heading into the A-10 Tournament if they can at least take one of their two remaining games.

Clemson 73, Maryland 70
An amazing comeback by Clemson in this one. Terrence Oglesby hit two very long three-pointers to make the difference in this one, ending the night at 4-for-10 from behind the arc. This might be the final clincher for Clemson's at-large bid. They are now 9-5 in the ACC, 21-7 overall, and they have an RPI of 19th. The 3-5 record against the RPI Top 50 is a bit of a question-mark, but I doubt Clemson will even be in the bubble discussion heading into Selection Sunday. The only way they have a chance of missing the Tournament is if they lose their final two regular season games as well as their first round ACC Tournament game. This loss is a tough one for Maryland, but I think their chances still remain rather good. They are being discounted because of a terrible RPI (currently 64th), but the RPI really isn't that important. They are still 18-12, and 8-7 in the ACC. The Sagarin is 56th, but they're a decent 7-10 against the RPI Top 100. If they can win the finale at Virginia as well as a first round ACC Tournament game that will mean 20 wins and a probable Tournament bid. If they lose one or both, the odds become a lot longer. Obviously they're going to spend much of this week rooting for teams like Butler and Davidson.

West Virginia 76, Pittsburgh 62
Once again, it's very tough for road teams to do much of anything on Senior Day. This win is a nice one for West Virginia's Tournament hopes, as they now move to 10-7 in the Big East. They close at St. John's, and it's very hard to see an 11-7 Big East team missing the Tournament. My guess is that West Virginia fans are actually more worried about their seeding at this point. If they beat St. John's and take a game or two in the Big East Tournament, they could slide as high as a #6 or 7 seed. But they could also fall out of the Tournament altogether, so nothing is guaranteed for the Mountaineers right now. As for Pitt, this is a tough loss, but it's still very hard to see them actually missing the tournament. They are now 9-8 and end with an easy home game against Depaul. Both the RPI and the Sagarin Rating are in the mid-20s, and the 8-8 record against the RPI Top 100 is fine. Most importantly, they'll get credit for the injury to Levance Fields (they shouldn't get credit for the injury to Cook, however, since Cook won't be playing in the Tournament). Barring an incredible turn of events, Pitt will make the Tournament. Probably something in the #7-9 seeding range, although that can shift in either direction depending on how Pitt ends the season.