Sunday, March 09, 2008

W-1 BP65

Just like last week, there will be a new BP65 after Wednesday night's games. For now, let's see where things are most likely to end up with one week left to go:

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. TENNESSEE (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas

3. WISCONSIN (BIG 10)
3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. Stanford
3. Louisville

4. UConn
4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. Notre Dame
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)

5. Indiana
5. Vanderbilt
5. Marquette
5. Washington State

6. BYU (MWC)
6. Purdue
6. Kansas State
6. Mississippi State

7. Michigan State
7. GONZAGA (WCC)
7. Clemson
7. West Virginia

8. Oklahoma
8. USC
8. Pittsburgh
8. UMass

9. Saint Mary's
9. Miami (Fl)
9. Kentucky
9. UNLV

10. Baylor
10. Illinois State
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. Ohio State

11. Villanova
11. KENT STATE (MAC)
11. Maryland
11. Arizona

12. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)
12. Texas A&M
12. Arkansas
12. Virginia Tech

13. Oregon
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. NEVADA (WAC)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
Syracuse, VCU, New Mexico, Arizona State, Florida

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Florida State, Dayton, St. Joseph's, UAB, Southern Illinois, Mississippi, Western Kentucky

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Wake Forest, Temple, Houston

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Charlotte, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Nebraska, Texas Tech, Creighton, San Diego State

5 comments:

Darrenn E. Canton said...

Who wins the CAA tourney?

Derek said...

How do you have Nova in over Syracuse? They split head to head. Cuse has a better RPI and a top ten strength of schedule.

Jeff said...

Darren: George Mason. The only way they're getting in the bracket is if they win the Tournament, and I think they will.

Derek: Syracuse has the better RPI because they have a better strength of schedule. The reason that the RPI isn't really used much on Selection Sunday is because teams figured that out - you play a lot of hard teams and lose to them all and you'll get a nice RPI.

Overall, Nova's resume isn't really much better than Syracuse (8-8 vs. the RPI Top 100 vs. 8-10, for example). But I think there's a good chance that those two teams will play in the first round of the Big East Tournament, and I think Nova will win that one. If that game does happen it will almost certainly be a play-in game for the
Tournament, with the loser packing their bags for the NIT.

csourk said...

What about Kansas State, most other bracket projections have them as a 8 or 9. I was wondering why you feel they will be higher.

Thanks!!

Jeff said...

Well, I have Kansas State as a 6 so it's not really that far out of whack. The thing is just that once you get out of the #1-5 seeds you really see a huge drop-off this season. Every team has a whole lot of holes. I could see moving Michigan State up ahead of K-State, but other than that I just don't see any other resumes that look better than theirs. Also, I think K-State has a decent shot at making a little bit of a run in the Big 12 Tournament. I would not be at all shocked if they took out Kansas or Texas in the Semifinals. And if they can do that, they probably move up to a #5 seed, and possibly up to a #4 or 3 if they can win the whole Big 12 Tournament.


Also, if you look at my ordering of teams, I would say that every team starting with West Virginia was a bubble team yesterday morning. The fact that Kansas State was not a bubble team surely puts them ahead of teams like Oklahoma and UMass.