Thursday, March 06, 2008

W-1.5 BP65

1. NORTH CAROLINA (ACC)
1. MEMPHIS (C-USA)
1. UCLA (PAC 10)
1. TENNESSEE (SEC)

2. KANSAS (BIG 12)
2. Duke
2. GEORGETOWN (BIG EAST)
2. Texas

3. XAVIER (ATLANTIC 10)
3. Stanford
3. WISCONSIN (BIG 10)
3. Louisville

4. UConn
4. DRAKE (MVC)
4. Notre Dame
4. BUTLER (HORIZON)

5. Vanderbilt
5. Purdue
5. Indiana
5. Washington State

6. Marquette
6. BYU (MWC)
6. Michigan State
6. Kansas State

7. Clemson
7. GONZAGA (WCC)
7. Mississippi State
7. West Virginia

8. Oklahoma
8. Miami (Fl)
8. Pittsburgh
8. USC

9. UMass
9. Texas A&M
9. Saint Mary's
9. Arizona

10. UNLV
10. DAVIDSON (SOUTHERN)
10. Kentucky
10. Maryland

11. Baylor
11. Ohio State
11. Villanova
11. KENT STATE (MAC)

12. Illinois State
12. Arkansas
12. Arizona State
12. Virginia Tech

13. SOUTH ALABAMA (SUN BELT)
13. ORAL ROBERTS (SUMMIT)
13. GEORGE MASON (COLONIAL)
13. NEVADA (WAC)

14. STEPHEN F AUSTIN (SOUTHLAND)
14. UC SANTA BARBARA (BIG WEST)
14. SIENA (MAAC)
14. CORNELL (IVY)

15. BELMONT (ATLANTIC SUN)
15. WINTHROP (BIG SOUTH)
15. AUSTIN PEAY (OVC)
15. MARYLAND BC (AMERICA EAST)

16. PORTLAND STATE (BIG SKY)
16. MORGAN STATE (MEAC)
16. ROBERT MORRIS (NORTHEAST)
16. AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (PATRIOT)
16. ALABAMA STATE (SWAC)


Other teams considered, but that just missed the cut:
St. Joseph's, Syracuse, VCU, Houston, UAB, New Mexico, Florida

Good resumes, but need a little bit more:
Florida State, Wake Forest, Southern Illinois, Oregon, Mississippi, Western Kentucky

Other teams with a decent shot, but that really need to improve their resume:
Dayton, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Texas Tech, Creighton, San Diego State

Still alive, but pretty much need a miracle:
Charlotte, Temple, Minnesota, Nebraska, California, Washington

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

you HAVE to be smoking mushrooms. seeding drake and butler ahead of 5 loss Vandy that has wins over the number one team in the country and all 5 losses coming to likely tourney teams. unbelievable

Jeff said...

Generally the way that we do things on this blog is that you make a logical argument if you disagree with something. You have not made such an argument, so there's really no way for me to respond. To give you a quick hint on why it's not so "unbelievable" to rank the teams in the order I did, I will give you their rankings in the computer ranking considered most by the Selection Committee, the Sagarin Ratings:

Drake - 21st
Butler - 24th
Vanderbilt - 31st



If you read a little bit further through the blog you will see where I talk about Vanderbilt's win over Tennessee, as well as predict their next loss to Arkansas. I am well aware of what they've gone through this season, as well as the fact that right now Vandy fans are probably over-rating their team more than any other group of fans in the country. Mostly due to their incredibly inflated RPI and the fact that they have won just about every close game they've gotten into meaning that their overall record is inflated.

One stat that should scare you as a Vanderbilt fan: Your team is 1-5 on the road against RPI Top 100 teams. That does not bode well for the Tournament at all.

run2win said...

I am just curious as to why you have neither of two candidates for Big 12 champion as a #1 seed....I can understand KU as they really have played a soft schedule but not Texas. Texas has played a top ten schedule and has beaten 2 other #1 seeds, on either neutral courts/away courts.. Also it is my understanding that the Big 12 has the 2nd rated RPI ..just wondering, all are good teams

Jeff said...

Through last night's games the Big 12 is actually third in conference RPI, although that's really not important. Conference USA is 10th, but most everyone has Memphis in as a #1 seed right now.


The fact is that the Selection Committee doesn't focus on the strength of the conference all too much. Nobody is going to say "Oh, they won the best conference, they've GOT to be a #1 seed". You have to look at the overall resume.


What I'm projecting here is that Texas will take the regular season title, but Kansas will take the Tournament title. The committee likes to give #1 seeds to teams that win both titles, if they can (remember how UCLA was the nearly-undisputed #1 team in the country before they flopped in the Pac-10 Tournament last year, and then fell to a #2 seed?). I think Tennessee and UCLA will win both the regular and postseason titles. Meanwhile, I think that the winner of the ACC is probably going to get a #1 seed just because Duke and UNC have been so strong this season, and the ACC is probably the best conference top to bottom this season.

If Texas wins every game the rest of the way and takes the Big 12 Tournament title, they'll have a pretty good shot at a #1 seed. If Kansas wins every game the rest of the way, they'll also have a shot at a #1 seed. Obviously it's possible for one of those teams to get a #1 seed. But right now I think UCLA, Tennessee, Memphis and the ACC Champ all have a better shot.

sean said...

Yeah, I completely agree with you Jeff. Texas has some great wins but also a few puzzling losses, at Missouri (although before Mizzou lost half their team to supsension or injury), by 17 at A&M, and most recently against Texas Tech.

And looking at recent play, KU has been more impressive with their dismantling of Tech and blowout versus KSU. So I would think that they are the more likely team to get the 1 seed should they win out through the Big 12 tournament, as opposed to if Texas won out.

I think the most likely scenario is what you described, Memphis is almost guaranteed a 1 at this point, the ACC winner is a lock as well, and neither KU or Texas can be seeded over Tennessee or UCLA at this point.