Wednesday Evening Recap

Remember, a new BP65 tonight, after all of this evening's games have been completed. Before then, a quick look back at some important recent results:

Ohio State 80, #15 Purdue 77, OT
This result couldn't have been too much of a surprise. Ohio State was playing with their backs to the wall, knowing that a loss would have dropped them to 8-9 in the Big Ten. Also, Ohio State does have a lot of talent but has simply been unable to close out games on the road. They've been very strong at home all season. On a side note, Evan Turner is really turning into a superstar - he practically took over late in the second half. Assuming he doesn't turn pro, he'll be a very good player in the Big Ten in the near future. The most immediate impact of this game is that it basically hands the Big Ten title to Wisconsin. After shocking nobody by crushing Penn State this evening, the Badgers now only need to beat Northwestern to take the Big Ten regular season title. As for Ohio State, this is now their first win over an RPI Top 50 team (1-9 overall). The Sagarin Rating is up to 39th, and their record against the RPI Top 100 actually isn't all that atrocious (6-10). I think they still might need to beat Michigan State over the weekend to feel good about an at-large bid.

Mississippi 81, Arkansas 72
A devastating loss for a Razorbacks team that had been looking fairly good for an at-large bid. This won't really hurt the computer numbers, because Mississippi's overall resume is decent. But Ole Miss has been atrocious as of late, and you had to think that Arkansas fans were counting this one in the win column. The loss drops the Razorbacks to 8-7 in a weak SEC. The resume has some high points, and it has some low points. A high point: 5-4 against the RPI Top 50. A low point: 7-5 against the RPI 101-200. Obviously they need to avoid a huge upset at home against Auburn, but even after that they will still have a little bit of work heading into the SEC Tournament. They will get a bye to the SEC Quarterfinals, where they will probably face Vanderbilt. With this loss to Ole Miss, that makes the Vandy game a must-win. A loss there will likely doom them to the NIT. As for Ole Miss, they're still alive in this. The odds are long, but they'll have a plausible at-large scenario if they can take care of Georgia in their regular season finale. They will need to win their first round SEC Tournament game, and they'll need to pull a big upset in their Quarterfinal game. But if they can do that, will it be enough if they can taken out in the Semifinals? It's possible, but I don't think we have to worry about it unless Ole Miss actually gets there.

New Mexico 59, UNLV 45
We haven't done a lot of Mountain West talking here, but maybe we should have. It's almost definitely going to be a multi-bid conference, with a chance for more than two teams to get in. This result actually greatly increases the likelihood of the latter scenario, as I think UNLV is still an at-large team even with this loss. They are still 22-7 with an RPI tucked just inside the Top 30. Sagarin only has them 47th, but that's not too devastating. They are a pretty good 6-5 against the RPI Top 100, although the one hole in the resume is a lack of a real out-of-conference win to brag about. New Mexico lacks one of those, too, but they're also firmly in the at-large discussion. This win moves them up to 23-7 overall and 10-5 in the MWC. The schedule is a bit weak, though, as they're only 3-5 against the RPI Top 100. The shame is that they probably could have pulled off some big wins if the schedule had give them a chance, as the Sagarin PREDICTOR has them 27th. But that won't be enough for an at-large bid in and of itself. I doubt New Mexico gets an at-large bid unless they get to the MWC Tournament Finals, although a loss in the Semis would still mean 25 overall wins. Does a team out of the MWC get denied with 25 wins? We might find out.

UMass 100, LaSalle 63
A nice win for the only team (other than Xavier) that seems to still be standing in the A-10 after the carnage of the past few weeks. This makes it their 20th win overall, and they're up to 9-6 in the A-10. The RPI hops into the Top 40, although the Sagarin is still at a very dangerous 56th. The 6-6 record against the RPI Top 100 is okay, but fairly mediocre. The wins over Syracuse and Houston will look nice, although the losses to Northern Iowa and Fordham won't. They end their regular season with a dangerous game at George Washington, a team that has been red hot as of late. GW's last three home games have been wins over Dayton, Rhode Island and Richmond. If UMass can survive that one they'll simply need a decent performance in the A-10 Tournament. They will probably wrap up a first round bye, so they'll just need to avoid an upset in the Quarterfinals. Although the way that the A-10 standings have been so upside-down, they could end up getting matched up with someone good in that first game. It could easily be some team like Rhode Island or St. Joe's.

#4 Tennessee 89, Florida 86
Florida really blew it in this one. They were at home, they had a double-digit second half lead, and they shot 60% from the field (and 48% from behind the arc). Not to mention they had the emotion of Senior Day. If they couldn't win this, they'll never beat Tennessee. This loss is especially devastating in that they already had their backs to the wall. The Gators are now 8-7 in the SEC with the game at Rupp Arena coming up next. A loss there will definitely drop the Gators behind the Wildcats in the SEC pecking order, and that might make all the difference if the Gators don't put on a little run in the SEC Tournament. Florida's resume is honestly a bit like Ohio State's, in that they have failed to win the big games when they've had the opportunity. This loss drops them to 1-7 against the RPI Top 50 and 3-8 against the RPI Top 100. If the season ended now, it's hard to see the Gators getting in. If they can beat Kentucky then they'll be in decent shape heading into the SEC Tournament. They will get either Alabama or Auburn in the first round, which they obviously need to win. But after that it will be Mississippi State in the SEC Quarterfinals. Even if they beat Kentucky, there's a good chance that they'll need to upset Mississippi State, too. Florida still has plenty of time to earn an at-large bid, but they do have to earn it.

Texas A&M 71, Baylor 57
A nasty game all around. I don't really understand why these two teams dislike each other, but anybody who watched this game got a clear picture of the antipathy between the two sides. Clearly, handing out those aerodynamic balls to all the fans was one of the worst decisions since Disco Demolition Night. In all seriousness, this game probably flips A&M back ahead of Baylor in the Big 12 pecking order. Both teams are now 8-7 in conference (keeping in mind that no 8-8 team has ever gotten an at-large bid out of the Big 12), both have RPIs in the low-40s, and the two have now split the season series. A&M's 4-5 record against the RPI Top 50 is a bit nicer than Baylor's 3-8, and Sagarin also gives them the slight edge. The Aggies also have a win over Texas, while Baylor doesn't have any real big win like that. Both teams are in the middle of slumps (Baylor has lost 5 of 8, A&M has lost 4 of 6), but A&M has a better opportunity in their last game. The Aggies end with a chance for a huge win on Senior Day against Kansas, while Baylor has to play a tricky game at Texas Tech. Baylor might actually be the underdog for that one. So just based on what they can achieve before the regular season is out, I have to give the edge to Texas A&M as far as earning an at-large bid. But I can ask my readers from the Big 12: do you know what the tie-break is in the standings as far as the Big 12 Tournament goes? If both Baylor and A&M finish 8-8, who gets the edge?