Good Morning

As usual, Friday was the slowest day of the week. But as we get ready to head into the last full set of the games in the 2007-08 regular season, a quick look back at the biggest games from Thursday:

#18 Louisville 80, #17 Notre Dame 85
This was obviously the expected result, as Notre Dame has been a mediocre team away from home all season long. They have won 36 straight at home, but this loss drops them to 3-4 in true road games this season. That's obviously something you have to look for when you fill out your brackets, as teams that go undefeated at home and struggle on the road tend to under-perform in the Tournament. Luke Harangody shocked a lot of people with a sterling 40 points and 12 rebounds in this one, as he makes his case for Big East Player of the Year. But only one team was going to come out of this game in prime position to win the Big East title, and it's the Cardinals. Louisville hosts a desperate Villanova team on Sunday, while Georgetown heads to Marquette later today. Then these teams finish off the season against each other, at the Verizon Center. Remember that Louisville took the first meeting, in their own house. If Georgetown loses to Marquette but then beats Louisville we could be in for a very messy top of the standings, as that would thrust Notre Dame and UConn back into the discussion. But if either Louisville or Georgetown win out, they control their own destiny and can win the conference outright.

Saint Louis 64, St. Joseph's 55
St. Louis continues to be a very odd team to watch. Rick Majerus clearly doesn't like the hand he has been dealt, and his players don't seem to like him all that much. But at the same time they have a lot of talent and, with a good recruiting class coming in, could see themselves a very good team next season. In this one, you almost got the sense that Majerus just sent his kids on the floor and let them play basketball. St. Josephs, meanwhile, just looked incredibly tight. And this is what has been happening all year in the Atlantic Ten, and it's what often happens to teams that start out well and get thrust into the spotlight (Baylor, Ole Miss, I'm looking at you...). It's a lot of pressure to be told that an at-large spot is on the line, and it just seems like nobody in the A-10 other than Xavier can handle it. Despite the loss, St. Joseph's is still a decent 8-5 in the Atlantic Ten, but the fact is that they need a great record in conference. Unlike Dayton, UMass and Rhode Island, they have absolutely nothing to brag about with regards to their out-of-conference. And that is why Dayton can be 5-8 and have an RPI of 37th, while St. Joseph's sits at 8-5 with an RPI of 54. Sagarin has the Hawks 55th and Pomeroy has them 63rd, and they are a disappointing 11-9 against the RPI Top 200. As I've been warning all season, St. Joseph's schedule was back-loaded, and it's going into high gear for their season finale. They end up with Temple and Xavier at home, followed by a game at Dayton. All three of those would be good wins, but all three can be losses. And don't be surprised if Dayton actually shows flashes of its former brilliance if it loses another game and even their most ardent fans recognize that their at-large chances are over. They may play loose (like St. Louis in this one) once the pressure is off. I think it's safe to say that we'll know a lot about St. Joseph's by how they finish. If they win all three they'll be a virtual lock for the Tournament. Two wins and they'll have a good shot at a bid, but we'll have to wait and see. Two losses out of three and they will be a long-shot for the Tournament. And a full sweep and they can starting buying NIT memorabilia. On a side note, with the way these two conferences have played out, isn't it entirely possible that the Atlantic Ten and ACC could combine to have something like 1/3 of the entire NIT field?

Maryland 74, Wake Forest 70
A big, big win for Maryland as they move closer to wrapping up an at-large bid. The RPI is still atrocious (59th) and the other computer rankings are also in dangerous territory, but the Terps will definitely get credit for finishing strong. They may end up only with the 50th best overall resume in the country, but there's no question that they've been one of the top 30 teams or so over the past few weeks. The sweep over Wake Forest now means that there's basically no way that Wake gets in the Tournament before the Terps. And that win at UNC is always going to be there. The 6-9 record against the RPI Top 100 is weak, but they are 6-4 in those games since the middle of January. Most importantly, they are now 8-6 in the ACC with two very winnable games remaining (Clemson, and at Virginia). A split of those two games and a first round win the ACC Tournament should be enough for an at-large bid. And a win in both of those games, along with a first round ACC Tournament win will absolutely lock them up for a bid. Things are shakier for a Wake Forest team that now slips to 6-7 in the ACC, along with the knowledge that they've been swept by another bubble team. The wins over Duke and BYU are nice, but the losses to Charlotte and Georgia are not. Plus, the fact that they scheduled a bunch of atrocious teams in the out-of-conference means that their computer numbers are deflated. Pomeroy has them in the 50s, Sagarin in the 60s, and the RPI has fallen into the 70s. Obviously that's not good enough, and Wake would be NIT-bound if the season ended now. But they end with three winnable games (at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, vs. NC State). They need at least two wins out of those three to stay firmly in the bubble discussion. If they can find a way to win all three games, it's actually hard to see them missing the Tournament. It's always good to have your season in your own hands, so let's see if Wake can step up and grab that at-large bid for itself.

#9 Wisconsin 57, #15 Michigan State 42
This game obviously had no bubble implications, as both of these teams are locks for the Tournament. But this game did have other implications, not least of which being the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Award, on which they can almost start engraving the name Michael Flowers after his incredible performance shutting down Drew Neitzel in this one. Most importantly, Wisconsin now seems nearly assured of a share of the Big Ten title. They close with two of the easiest possible Big Ten games (Penn State at home, Northwestern on the road). So barring an epic upset, the Badgers will finish 16-2. That leaves Indiana and Purdue, both of whom sit at 13-2, as the only other teams capable of getting a share of the title. Indiana's biggest roadblock is Sunday, when they head to Michigan State. Purdue should easily handle Northwestern later today, but then ends with tricky games at Ohio State and Michigan. Considering all the pressure on a very young Purdue team, and the fact that the inexperienced Ohio State team has played so much better at home (12-3) than on the road (4-7), I think I'd call Ohio State the favorite for that one. Especially since they'll know that they might need the win to stay in the bracket. So, now that we've established Wisconsin as a team nearly a lock to get at least a share of the Big Ten title, the question becomes where they'll be seeded. Right now I have them as a #3 seed because it's got to be a lower-than-50% chance that they take the Big Ten Tournament title, with at least four other teams having a good shot at it. A Big Ten title parlayed with a run to the Big Ten Semifinals or Finals should be enough to get the Badgers a #3 seed. If they can take both titles, however, I'd have to say that Wisconsin is a favorite for a #2 seed. And they actually would have an outside shot at a #1 seed, although they'd need a lot to go right. The most likely scenario would involve somebody like Kentucky or Florida taking the SEC Tournament (to knock Tennessee below Wisconsin in the rankings), and somebody like USC or Washington State taking the Pac-10 Tournament (to knock down UCLA). Even that might not be enough, so it's obviously a long-shot. But as my regular readers know, I always like to remind people of the fact that an event which seems a long-shot today may not seem that way tomorrow or next week. So it's worth keeping the possibility in mind as we head in the conference tournament season.