Sunday Evening Look Back

#1 North Carolina 76, #5 Duke 68
Not much to say about this game that hasn't already been said a thousand times all over the media. Duke struggles when the threes aren't falling, although when they're hot they can score like nobody else. They continue to struggle with big inside presences. Also, Ty Lawson was outstanding - if that's him at "80 percent" then I shudder to think what he'll be like at full speed. One side note was that I actually liked the way that the refs let this game go without calling a lot of fouls. It gets frustrating in games (like the UCLA/Cal game yesterday) where it feels like every single possession ends in a foul. It just drags out the second half, and makes it impossible for the game to really get into a flow. I know that Hansbrough deserved to get to the line a couple of times, but I don't feel too bad for him after all of the love that refs have thrown his way over the past three years. His favorite move is throwing his body into his defender and drawing the foul. He was a better and more interesting player when he was forced to actually try to score from the floor, knowing that he wouldn't get bailed out by the officials. As much as ESPN tried to hype this game, it actually settled nothing. Neither team was going to lock up a #1 seed with this win, and neither team was going to be out of that discussion with a loss. Duke will almost surely get a #1 seed if they win the ACC Tournament. UNC locks up a #1 seed with a win in the ACC Tournament, and will be an outside shot to still get that top seed even with a loss in the Finals. Duke has no shot at a #1 seed without winning the ACC Tournament.

Oregon 78, Arizona 69
You have to admire this gritty Oregon team. With their backs against the wall, they won three straight must-win games to bring their Pac-10 record back up to 9-9. No Pac-10 team has ever earned an at-large bid with a 9-9 record, but if ever there was a year for that it's this one. The RPI is 52nd, but the Sagarin Rating is up into the 30s. The 7-10 record against the RPI Top 100 is okay, highlighted by wins over Stanford and Kansas State, and a sweep of Arizona. They've got work left to do to earn an at-large bid, but they're definitely in the discussion as we enter the Pac-10 Tournament. Arizona, meanwhile, is in a free-fall. Don't be fooled by the RPI of 32 - the resume has a lot of holes, not least of which being a 3-7 record over their last ten games. They have got to win at least one game in the Pac-10 Tournament to earn an at-large bid (which should be automatic, as it's winless Oregon State), but even that might not be enough. In the Quarterfinals, Arizona will be drawn with Stanford, which has got to be considered a must-win game for Arizona. A loss there and they're probably missing the Tournament for the first time in a very long time (I think it's been more than 20 years).

Kentucky 75, Florida 70
A great start for Florida, but a long dry spell meant doom for the Gators. Kentucky's regular season re-birth is complete, as they move that RPI from the 250 range up to 49th. This is now 11 wins in their last 13 games, to finish the SEC 12-4. Can a 12-4 SEC team get denied from the Tournament? I have to say that they probably can't, although the overall resume is still pretty weak. The Sagarin Rating will be around 50th when the new numbers come out tomorrow, which is a very dangerous place to be. They are only 5-9 against the RPI Top 100, and 4-6 in road/neutral games. If you just look at the overall resume, they'd probably still be out of the Tournament if the season ended now. But the Selection Committee puts a lot of weight on strong finishes, and you won't be able to come up with anything close to 34 teams that have finished stronger than the Wildcats. Kentucky needs to beat the winner of Mississippi/Georgia in the SEC Quarterfinals to really feel safe about that at-large bid, but right now they've got to be considered in the field. Florida, on the other hand, is clearly going to regret that easy schedule. Despite the 21-10 record, they are almost definitely out of the Tournament field as of this moment. The RPI has fallen into the 60s, and the 3-7 record in the last ten games is very weak. Overall, they are an atrocious 3-9 against the RPI Top 100, and 4-6 in road/neutral games. In the SEC Tournament, Florida needs to beat both Alabama (first round) and Mississippi State (Quarterfinals) to be in a decent position for an at-large bid. Depending on what happens around the country, Florida might need a win in the SEC Semifinals (most likely a re-match with Kentucky) to earn an at-large bid.

Ohio State 63, #18 Michigan State 54
While Florida is playing their way out of the Tournament, last year's other NCAA Finalist is playing their way in. They were given a great opportunity by the schedule makers, who had them close with home games against Purdue and Michigan State. The Buckeyes took advantage, winning both to finish up 10-8 in the Big Ten. With two consecutive wins over Top 25 teams, the Buckeyes are now a decent 6-9 against the RPI Top 100. One thing that is worrisome for me is the way that this young and immature team has really struggled on the road (4-8 in true road games). The RPI is 47th and the Sagarin Rating has slid into the high-30s. Things are looking up for the Buckeyes except for one thing - their next game will be against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals. It's very tough to win two games in a row over the same team, and the Buckeyes won't have the home-field advantage in the rematch. Another Ohio State win would probably put them into the Tournament, but a loss might drop them back into the NIT.