Shrinking The Bubble

As the season comes to a close, the crop of pure bubble teams gets smaller and smaller by the day. Some teams are playing their way into the Tournament (West Virginia) while others are playing their way out of it (Southern Illinois). As for the games with important bubble implications that were completed early this afternoon, here we go:

#10 Georgetown 55, #13 Louisville 52
This game actually had no bubble implications, but I figured it was important enough to discuss anyway. With this win, Georgetown earns the outright Big East Championship. They will be favored to win the Big East Tournament, which would earn them at least a #2 seed. They have an outside shot for a #1 seed, but only if they get a lot of help. At worst, there's no way Georgetown gets worse than a #3 seed. As for Louisville, you can't ever feel bad about a 3 point loss on the road against a Top Ten team, but at the same time it's pretty painful to end up that close to a conference title. Still, you can make a great argument that Louisville is playing as good as any other team in the country over the past month or so. When they are completely healthy, they are an incredibly balanced team that excels in almost any situation. They could actually earn as high as a #2 seed if they win the Big East Tournament, although they're probably more likely to find themselves in the #3-4 range.

Florida State 75, Miami (Fl) 72, OT
I might sound like a broken record here, but I'll say it again. Anytime you have a team playing at home on Senior Day, with an at-large spot on the line - always bet on them to win the game. Emotion and psychology are such important parts of basketball that they can't possibly be overstated. A loss here would have ended any chance for the Seminoles to earn an at-large bid. A win doesn't put them in the Tournament, but it keeps them in the conversation. They now finish 7-9 in the ACC, and they are currently 18-13 overall. Despite a tough strength of schedule, the RPI is still in the low-60s. They are a solid 4-5 against the RPI Top 50, as well as 8-12 against the RPI Top 100. None of that screams at-large team, but it's in the ballpark. FSU will get a chance to earn an at-large bid during the ACC Tournament, but it will be tough. They will have to escape a first round game (probably against Georgia Tech). After that they'll probably get the winner of tonight's UNC/Duke game. It will be a tough game, but it will be a game that they'll probably need to win to get into the Tournament. Miami's Tournament chances are obviously a lot better than FSU's, although they aren't locks yet. The 8-8 ACC record is okay, but not great. They are 20-9 with an RPI inside the Top 30, so they'd be in the Tournament if the season ended now. They will probably end up facing BC, Virginia or NC State in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and I think they need a win there to truly wrap up a Tournament bid. If they lose their first ACC Tourney game they can still get into the Tournament, but they'll have to sweat out Selection Weekend.

West Virginia 83, St. John's 74, OT
A nice taking-care-of-business win for West Virginia, which got a bit of a scare with the 48% three-point shooting by the Johnnies. This win moves the Mountaineers to 11-7 in the Big East, which might just be the at-large clincher. The RPI is 32nd, although the Sagarin Rating is in the low-20s. They have wins over Marquette and Pittsburgh, and are a solid 7-8 against the RPI Top 100. The RPI is only depressed because they played five games against teams that ended up with RPIs of over 300 - and a rule of thumb for inflating your RPI is to never ever play teams with RPIs that poor. West Virginia will probably get into the Tournament whether they win in the first round of the Big East Tournament or not, but they can lock up a bid for sure by taking care of business in the first round.

Baylor 86, Texas Tech 73
A very impressive win for Baylor over a dangerous Texas Tech team. LaceDarius Dunn had the game of his life with 38 points, including 6-for-9 from behind the arc. This was an absolutely essential win for a Baylor team that entered this game firmly on the bubble. They now finish a solid 9-7 in the Big 12, to go along with a nice out-of-conference win over Notre Dame. The 7-9 record against the RPI Top 100 is fine, and the RPI jumps into the Top 40. Baylor isn't a lock for the Tournament by any means, but they're in decent shape with this solid victory. If they can pull an upset to reach the Big 12 Semifinals, that should lock things up for the Bears. A roller-coaster season (really a roller-coaster five years) for Baylor University, but they might just get a bit of a happy-ending this year.

USC 72, #7 Stanford 60
This was Senior Day, so this can't be considered too big of an upset. USC managed to out-hustle Stanford en route to 13 extra rebounds, and certainly earned this victory. If they hadn't locked up an at-large bid before this game, they've certainly locked it up now. They enter the Pac-10 Tournament worried only about how high of a seed they'll be able to slide up to. Stanford, on the other hand, is playing their way out of a top seed. There's nothing to be ashamed about losing at UCLA or USC, but it's never good to end the regular season with two straight losses. Any long-shot chance they had at a #1 seed has disappeared, although I think they can still earn a #2 seed if they win the Pac-10 Tournament and get a little bit of help.

Dayton 79, St. Joseph's 67
I warned about this earlier today. Dayton manages to keep their slim at-large hopes alive with this win. The RPI is inside the Top 40 and they have 20 wins, but the 8-8 Atlantic Ten record is really tough to explain away. They have three straight wins to end the regular season, but that comes immediately after eight losses in their previous eleven games. All season they've pointed to the wins against Louisville and Pittsburgh, although they beat versions of those teams inferior to the versions you now see on television. They're going to end up a solid 8-6 against the RPI Top 100, and many of the rest of the numbers still look good. The question is whether people will be able to look past that 8-8 conference record and the fact that their record over their final twelve games is going to be worse than most other bubble teams. This win means that they enter the A-10 Tournament with a chance to win an at-large bid. But they'll need to go on a little bit of a run. As for St. Joe's, this is a pretty tough loss to swallow. They slip to 9-7 in the A-10 with an inferior out-of-conference resume to teams like Dayton and UMass. They are 7-6 against the RPI Top 100, although still find their computer numbers in the mid-50s. Like Dayton, they enter the A-10 Tournament with a chance to earn an at-large bid. But they have work to do.