Marquette Finally Wins A Close One

Marquette 62, #12 Georgetown 59
It was starting to look like Marquette would never win a close game this season, with heartbreakers to West Virginia and Villanova before finally winning this one. And they don't get a breather as they're off to Villanova next. The key for Marquette is just surviving this part of the schedule, because things get a lot easier when January finally ends. While the 6-for-6 shooting behind the arc by David Cubillan here probably won't be repeated another time soon, they did a nice job of forcing the ball out of the hands of Greg Monroe. That said, Georgetown needs to do a better job of feeding him the ball. I know that they run a modified Princeton offense where players are supposed to pass to whoever the open man is, but when you have a player as good as Monroe you've got to get him more touches. He only had nine points in this game, but it came on 4-for-6 shooting, so it's not like he was inefficient. You can't count Georgetown out of the Big East title with one mere loss, since it will probably only take something like 14-4 to win it, but they'll put themselves in a pretty big hole if they don't take care of business at home tomorrow afternoon against UConn.

Wichita State 65, Missouri State 62
Missouri State came into this game off of a tough loss to Northern Iowa, and you would have thought they'd bounce back at home against Wichita State. But in the end it was probably nine missed free throws that did them in. At this point they have clearly been passed by Wichita State in the Missouri Valley pecking order, and are at best the third best team in the conference. You can't count them out of an at-large bid yet, but they are going to have to run off several straight wins to get back in serious contention. Things are looking better for Wichita State, as they move to 14-2 with a win over Texas Tech to go with this one, and zero bad losses. Their RPI is only 61st, but their Sagarin ELO_CHESS is 33rd, and not only are Sagarin's ratings much more accurate at these still-early stages in the season, but the ELO_CHESS is also a more reliable metric of at-large status than the RPI on Selection Sunday. Both Sagarin and Pomeroy think Wichita State is actually closer to the 60th best team in the country (Sagarin's ELO_CHESS is a rating of a team's won-loss resume, while his PREDICTOR is a judge of how good the teams actually are), which means that they probably aren't as good as their record. But their actual won-loss record is all that matters on Selection Sunday, so if they can keep going strong and end up around 13-5 or 14-4 in the Missouri Valley then they've got an excellent chance of going Dancing.

#23 BYU 77, UNLV 73
BYU proved that they're more than Jimmy Fredette, overcoming his illness (he managed on seven points in 25 minutes on the floor) and horrid shooting (37% from the field as a team) and still holding serve at home with a solid victory over a good UNLV team. It was a testament to their bench, which produced with 28 points and 18 rebounds. They are now 15-1 with a Sagarin rating up to 10th. The key to a high seed in the NCAA Tournament will be winning the conference, which will not be easy with the way that New Mexico has been playing. But they will be in the conversation for a high Tournament seed (perhaps as high as a 3 seed) if they can keep winning. As for UNLV, this is a missed opportunity, but it's never a bad loss on the road at BYU. With the loss they fall to 12-3 with wins over Louisville, Southern Illinois and Arizona, and zero bad losses. If the season ended now they probably would be stuck in the NIT, but they'd be in the discussion for one of the final at-large bids. They get their next chance for a resume-building win tomorrow afternoon at New Mexico.